The rotation ... drum roll please

[JohnU]

I bet Price was just drooling when he realized that the tradeoff for Simon and Latos was ... Jason Marquis.


Cueto, Leake, DeSclafani, Marquis, Iglesia
| CBSSports.com
Reds starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, Jason Marquis and Raisel Iglesias have secured spots in the rotation to begin the season, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. They join Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake.

Homer Bailey is still recovering from September elbow surgery and will start the season on the disabled list. Paul Maholm, who was also competing for a spot in the rotation, has been told he will now compete for a spot in the bullpen.

 

[eburg5000]

I believe that this could be a very, very long season.

 

[Sebastian Torres]

What are the talks about Cueto leaving? (New fan getting a hang on thins)

 

[JohnU]

I don't think anybody outside of Cueto and his agent can answer that question.
As for now, he's a Reds pitcher until he isn't, which is either by trade between now and August ... or he's a free agent. I don't think the Reds will throw that much money at him, to be honest.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's a big risk for Cueto pitching out the season without a long term deal inked. Another injury and the mega-million dollar deal turns into a scratch and dent sale.

 

[JohnU]

If it is possible to suppose the Reds have a pitching strategy, it could be that the Desclafani-Iglesias decision is connected to Cueto. I need to connect some dots but if these guys actually DO pan out, the need to keep Cueto is reduced. Obviously Marquis is a fill-in for Bailey so there's no win-lose-lose-win to that one.

But if Iglesias can get people out, you shove him into the 3 hole in the rotation behind Homer and Leake, put Desclafani in the 4 hole and gamble that Marquis can still get it done. If not, Stephenson or Lorenzen are nearly ready. Or Cingrani.

It's building a pitching staff on hope and I don't know that the Reds have a lot of options to that. In any case, they going to lose Cueto, either by trade in August or to FA at season's end.

Since I don't think anybody truly believes this team can win a W.S. with what they have, it's a question of how to budget moving forward. Honestly, a supplemental first-round pick is fairly useless. Personally, I'd take the money Cueto would be making and throw it at one of the young Cuban arms that will soon be VERY available thanks to the U.S. policy toward the island.

I do emphasize, that Mike Leake as a No. 2 guy in the rotation would strongly suggest that the Reds find some damned hitters. There is discussion about Suarez and Negron. I think both have a short-term future, but Negron is there to replace Phillips, not Cozart. Cozart ain't going anyplace. Suarez and Negron are not going to lead the Reds to the Land of Milk and Budweiser.

By then, you are coming up on a Jay Bruce scenario that needs to be considered.

I would say, come 2016, that at least 3 Reds regulars will be different -- and they are pretty easy to identify. Could be, Mesoraco moves to left field. A few choices there.

And what to do with Cueto? Fuck it ... trade the guy to Baltimore for their center fielder.

 

[redsfan03]

Yikes, this could be a long season. The back end of that rotation...

 

[Redsfan1507]

Lets be honest. Cueto was raised in a large family in the DR that probably made less than $1200 a YEAR. He's already made enough money for him and his great grandchildren to live a very comfortable life there, or most anywhere else in the world.

So, IMO, there is no real "risk" in Cueto playing out a free agent walk year with the Reds. There might be a big reward though. Does any GM believe Cueto is worth substantially less than Lester or Scherzer ? That places him about $100M over the Reds budget. Now, I don't want to slam Cincinnati, but I can think of several places where a primarily Spanish speaking millionaire might prefer to play for $200M, over the Nati at half that...the weather sucks, it's dingy, the women aren't that good looking, and the sports teams don't win very often....just saying.

The Reds are either going to print a new money mountain they don't have, or Cueto is outta here. I'd say, he's a goner.

Maybe Iglasias is a capable Cueto replacement, Leake is the next Bronson Arroyo and 9 other teams were wrong about Jason Marquis. Maybe we duped the Rays with Latos' Kremchek'ed arm and Desclafani's 5.00 Ernie was a fluke....Maybe... Or not.

I think the Reds "plan" expired in 2013, and they're just saving up for another one in 2018.

 

[JohnU]

Lorenzen getting a free audition on Wednesday. Gotta wonder if that means he gets sent to Pensy or to Lousyville. Given the Reds' propensity for letting their arms dry up and go south, it just annoys me.

I agree Lorenzen isn't ready yet, but it's the principle of the matter.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Losing the big reward is the risk I spoke of. I'd agree his financial future is secure or should be. Cueto's comments have indicated zero interest in signing below market value anywhere. States he likes Cincinnati, but apparently not a $100M less than somewhere else. He spends his off seasons in the D.R., so that's a big clue into where his loyalty lies after baseball. Everywhere else falls under "a nice place to visit."

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'd love to believe Cueto will stay in Cincinnati. I think agents and the MLBPA pressure players to explore best offers though. I think it would take a big injury to harm his viability as a free agent. There have been players signed (Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay) knowing the first year would be a DL year...

Not every team can afford him, but I think all teams (except maybe the Cardinals) would like to have him. Some people aren't big city fans, if that's the case, it may help the Reds, but I envision teams like Miami, LA, NY and the Redsox very interested. If Cueto has a middling (for him) 200IP/15W/3.50 ERA year, he'll get offers approaching $200M, IMO. Ironically, if the Reds can't sign him, they probably will only get a couple prospects for him in trade as a late season lame duck, unless they can do a sign and trade agreement for a team that want him long term-that's probably too much to accomplish in season to be realistic. They only get a supplimental draft pick if he just walks. If the Reds would have traded him this winter, they could have gotten more, but likely it would have distroyed pre season ticket sales, and the notion they wanted to negotiate with him.

It's a business. Cueto is going to be expensive. If Iglasias or Desclafani is a stud, it will be better recieved by fans. If not, it's going to look like a salary dump.

 

[JohnU]

Any team like the Reds will face this challenge. The Twins faced it and lost, so did the Royals initially. The Parrots would have, had they ever signed anybody of quality before Huntington took over. Years back, the A's were always losing their horses to the Yankees. Cleveland lost all its top pitchers. Miami takes a dump every 3 years -- and will again.

That is the reality. Any franchise that builds its hopes on an ace pitcher and a .330 hitter are doomed. I won't go into the long discussion of how the Cardinals can lose a top player and keep on rolling ... it just is what it is.

Cincy loses Cueto and either endures or resigns itself to pre-Dusty schlock teams that average 18,000 fans a game, many of whom come in on the short bus.

Castellini has wanted to win and I do think he's done what he is capable of doing to get to that point. He just doesn't have the mix of talent in the organization to sustain that objective. So far, he's been the beneficiary of the blind squirrel-acorn theory ... and eventually somebody will cut down the oak tree.

Guys like Cueto just show up in places like KC and Minnesota and Cincy. They don't stay long.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think it's HARD to run a team these days. Unless you have a rock solid organization from top to bottom with big revenues, the relative short term free agent system makes it a constant churn. Teams live and die in the farm, but revenue is based on the big clubs right now draw. Actually, the Reds have had pretty consistent farm production ( a player or two every year or so), but they can't be expected to replace all their top paid guys out at the same time, from any source(s). They just have to get expected performance from big dollar guys, and be able to plug in regular farm values when they have to. Nothing lasts long enough I suppose- now were pitching thin all the sudden.

 

[JohnU]

The so-called farm system ratings that the low-grade fan believes is just something to discuss. I don't care squat about the system so long as it produces a Bruce or a Bailey or a Votto every year or so. Reds have gotten Frazer, Mesoraco and Hamilton in the last three years, and maybe a couple of other guys. I just think they sit on their pitchers too long. But the occasional Iglesias or Chapman NDFA signing will cover a lot of sins.

I think farm systems are really just checking accounts. You can trade a couple of "prospects" for a 2nd baseman and make the other team's fans think you've done them a favor. I never bought into the "top prospects" concept of trading, although people who don't know much or don't think too much about what they know ... that's the first thing that comes out. The guy the Reds dealt for Byrd was supposedly "top tier" by people who didn't like the trade. For the rest of us, he's just No. 68 on the spring roster.

I find it amusing that the contemporary notion is that the Reds will trade Cueto IF they are "out of contention" ... and exactly what that means is ... are you 30-60 and 21 games out of first place? Or are you a winning streak away from making a run at a 2nd wild card? Being "out of contention" is an archaic concept. The post-season setup does not allow for shedding talent like it once did.

You trade your talent and lose out of the playoffs by 1 game, then what? Milwaukee and Philly did that a couple of years back.

 

[Redsfan1507]

MLB has definately been guilty of the "herd" mentality about a lot of things-not just retread managers and philosophies... I think the idea that a "name" player is worth your 3 best farm talents is one of them...and you can't contend unless you have a handful of players with $100M+ contracts...that by the 3rd or 4th year, those teams are forced to eat $30-$50M of just to get a couple of those "prospects" in trade. The Phillies are dying from that disease right now.

The Dodgers basically traded Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon and $25M for Yasmani Grandal, Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins. Then they paid $60M for a Cuban infielder with a torn UCL in his throwing arm. Their projected starting OF consists of Puig, and a 3 player platoon of Crawford, Ethier, and a rookie that hit .140 in last years audition. They spent a lot of money, but anyone that thinks they got better has a different opinion than I do.

San Diego went all in for outfielders and SP James Shields, but still have potentially the least offensively productive infields in MLB, and zero dominant top of the rotation SP's. The Redsox bought heavy contracts on Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, but have a horrible pitching staff. The Nats appear to be pushing for hardware, and have an impressive pitching staff, although offensively they have several injury prone players that if missing, might challenge that impressive pitching by starving them for runs frequently. The Cubs bought pitching, but still largely rely on a lineup of rookies for runs, and realistically need a 20 win improvement to win the division. The Mariners have spent on free agent hitters each of the last 2 years.

Meanwhile, there are teams that do go counter- the Rays and A's are notorious for needing a program to recognize the players every few years. They still play .500 at a shockingly consistent clip though.

Some may have learned lessons-The Yankees have stopped spending and the Braves have sold off. The Orioles let their top power hitter walk for bigger cash. The Tigers let Scherzer jump ship. The Giants didn't get better either, but they passed on giving Pablo Sandoval a Panda sized bundle of cash, and didn't try to sign any overly expensive free agents. It's probably a smart move, considering the Panda has been consistently rotund and hitless until mid summer, and Zito, Cain and Lincecum might have shyed them away from investing large diollars in arms.

I'm not sure it's because they've learned anything, but our Reds had a selloff already, and probably aren't done yet.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals seem to just keep on chugging along.

 

[JohnU]

Desclafani looked pretty good tonight.
The offense still blows chunks. Bruce continues to be clueless.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've seen 2 different common perspectives on offense:

Aggressive- attack to take control. Make opposition do things they don't want to do. This requires unusual skill- great contact, power, speed or all the above.

Opportunistic- wait on mistakes, take what they give you. Maximize their mistakes and minimize your own. Success requires the ability to recognize opportunities and enough grasp of fundamentals to execute.

Great teams have players that win both ways and compliment each other. Bad teams don't have to be bad at both, but it

Votto is an opportunist. Brandon Phillips is an aggressor, as examples. Neither is successful when Votto walks in front of BP's pulled DP ball and Bruce's K on a breaking ball a foot inside. Asking Votto to be more aggressive would be as futile as asking Phillips and Bruce to be more selective at the plate. No one is learning how to hit at 30.

All the lopsided K:BB ratios and low BA's suggest this lineup either doesn't have the skill to be as aggressive as they are, or the smarts to be as opportunistic as they need to be to recover other disadvantages.

IMO, the lineup does make some difference because of the relative oppositions game plan against them. Votto will get more fastballs and a bigger pull hole, if Hamilton is at 1b, but there is still little reason to pitch to him if there is 1-2 outs and a groundball frequent Phillips or wiffaholic Bruce is on deck. This team can hit homers on fastballs...but why should they get them if they will swing at breaking balls out of the zone ? Only the opportunity of a pitch limited pitcher gives them that chance. This team is heavily dependant on the forebearance of inept pitching.

 

[ckhokie]

Not great, Bob.

 

[GenJac]

Re: The Cueto deal (or lack thereof)

The Reds are over budget so why mention, from an organization standpoint, or harp on something that is looking obviously like it is not going to happen? I guess ultimately the Reds are smart just being mum about it from here on out. To my knowledge, the Reds and Jocketty have said nothing more than "we would like to re-sign him." That's like saying "we would like to hit the lottery." Reds have many more issues than this and a trade, which likely will happen, will likely return much less than fans anticipate. Reds got nothing for Latos and Simon so what do fans think will happen with Cueto? It's not just whether the Reds can afford Cueto at the going rate but can they afford anything long term other than prospects coming back in a trade?

 

[JohnU]

Three teams would be on my list of operations who would deal for Cueto now.

Baltimore, which smelled the post-season twice -- and needs a hoss to get there now.
Texas, which would like to be relevant without Darvish.
Detroit, which believes it is the heir-apparent to American League dynasty.