The over under lines

[gp956]

From Keith Law:

The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.

He has the Giants finishing with 87 wins and the D-Backs with 91...for what it's worth.

Keith Law totally missed the mark. What a surprise.

 

[Heathbar012]

You're rich!

Would it have paid 16 to 1, if he took the Phils under, too?


Sorry, msg. Great picks!

 

[gp956]

Would it have paid 16 to 1, if he took the Phils under, too?


Sorry, msg. Great picks!

Maybe.What nice bet that would have been - i.e. to nail all three.

 

[gp956]

Revisiting spring training predictions.

Columns: Spring Prediction, Current Projection, Delta

Baltimore Orioles	69.5	85.5	16.0
Oakland Athletics	71.5	87.2	15.7
Chicago White Sox	75.5	89.5	14.0
Pittsburgh Pirates	73.5	86.4	12.9
Washington Nationals	84.5	96.4	11.9
Cincinnati Reds...	86.5	96.7	10.2
St. Louis Cardinals	83.5	90.1	6.6
Seattle Mariners..	71.5	77.6	6.1
Texas Rangers....	91.5	96.5	5.0
Atlanta Braves....	87.5	92.4	4.9
Los Angeles Dodgers	81.5	85.7	4.2
New York Mets....	72.5	76.5	4.0
San Francisco Giants	87.5	90.5	3.0
New York Yankees	93.5	94.7	1.2
San Diego Padres	73.5	74.1	0.6

Philadelphia Phillies	93.5	77.7	-15.8
Colorado Rockies.	80.5	67.2	-13.3
Boston Red Sox...	90.5	77.9	-12.6
Miami Marlins......	84.5	72.5	-12.0
Chicago Cubs......	74.5	63	-11.5
Houston Astros....	63.5	52	-11.5
Cleveland Indians.	79.5	69.6	-9.9
Toronto Blue Jays	81.5	72.4	-9.1
Los Angeles Angels	92.5	84.9	-7.6
Kansas City Royals	78.5	71.6	-6.9
Milwaukee Brewers	84.5	77.9	-6.6
Minnesota Twins..	72.5	66.5	-6.0
Arizona Diamondbacks	86.5	81	-5.5
Detroit Tigers......	92.5	88.5	-4.0
Tampa Bay Rays...	87.5	87.4	-0.1

Orioles and A's the most surprising positive stories of the year. The Phillies by far the most disappointing team in 2012. And as bad as the Astros were predicted to do, they've managed to actually be much worse.

The dodgers, interestingly enough, are only 1.9 wins more surprising than the Giants.

 

[msgkings322]

Revisiting spring training predictions.

Columns: Spring Prediction, Current Projection, Delta






Orioles and A's the most surprising positive stories of the year. The Phillies by far the most disappointing team in 2012. And as bad as the Astros were predicted to do, they've managed to actually be much worse.

The dodgers, interestingly enough, are only 1.9 wins more surprising than the Giants.

Don't these projected wins just extrapolate the current wining percentage over 162 games? To believe LA is going to finish with only 85-86 wins assumes their recent spending spree won't improve their winning %. And it might not, I'd love it. But it seems like the team they have now should win 88-90, right?

 

[gp956]

Don't these projected wins just extrapolate the current wining percentage over 162 games? To believe LA is going to finish with only 85-86 wins assumes their recent spending spree won't improve their winning %. And it might not, I'd love it. But it seems like the team they have now should win 88-90, right?

Just extrapolate? No. They're much more complicated than that. But it is accurate to say their old lineup contributes a bit to the current projection, as does the production coming from the current lineup vs the current lineups of their competition. What you're seeing, I think, in the disparity between what you expect the dodgers to do and what pecota is predicting, is due to their relatively difficult strength of schedule to close the year.

 

[gp956]

LA now projected to win 84 games...... +2.5 from their preseason projection. Giants at 90.8, which is +3.3.

 

[tzill]

I'm thinking 92 or so wins for the GMen. Posey alone is worth 3-4 games replacing Stewside. Add in Melky replacing Ssory Doc and PTB; Pagan instead of Torres/RoRo; Stamos instead of the corpse of Tenada; a whole year of Panda; and Huff being in an even year....92 wins easy.

Of course, Franchez may never play, Huff could go RoRo on us, Pagan could tank, Nate could play his way out of the lineup, Stamos could hit .220, Posey could only give us 100 games, Panda could....well, you get the pantshatting point.

Ahem....:horn::horn: