The outfield logjam

[JohnU]

Just looking over who is a free agent this winter and David DeJesus is on the list.
I like the guy for any outfield spot and he hits fairly well.

We currently have
Robinson, who can play CF ... IF the speedy Hamilton can't cut it. I have my doubts.

That leaves Ludwick (one wonders), X-Paul and Heisey. Honestly, I'd rather have DeJesus than any of these guys.

As a free agent with some upside, DeJesus would not be cheap, but cheaper than Choo would be. His numbers may be too pedestrian for some of you. And he is 33.

If Hamilton can play, we still have the same mess in LF and I'd hate to think that the best we have is Xavier Paul. He's done all right and I like him off the bench or in a spot start.

Robinson is on the big club only because Ludwick is out. I rarely get into the "let's trade for this guy" conversation but it's clear the Reds need to sooner or later address the outfield issue. Just having "players" is Dusty-like.

David DeJesus Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

[wvu_man]

I'm all about having an everday LF'er but Thom and Chris dug up some interesting stats during a broadcast a few days ago. They said the Reds rank like 6th in the LF RBI's in the NL. Every team that was in front of them had a high dollar star (Holliday, Gonzo, Braun). X, Lutz, and Robinson have combined for a .280 BA and if you take out Lutz who has only started a few games, their combined BA is about .302 and an OBP % of almost .400. They're a helluva cheaper too. I realize the season is young and they may slump at some point but for right now, I'm pretty happy and surprised at their production.

 

[JohnU]

I agree that we aren't worse off with the LF combo than when we had Gomes and the other raft of regular retreads. All three of these guys have gone farther than we could have hoped, and I like them all as PH options. Wish one of them could hit for power from the right side, however.

My thinking on DeJesus is more for center field than left field, however. Robinson CAN play center but I don't think, long-run, he can hit MLB pitching. The question remains whether Hamilton can.

I think if you combine all three of these guys, you get DeJesus with a touch more consistency.

But if the team doesn't change anything, I will be OK with that -- provided Ludwick ever does hit again.
Until he's in the lineup and driving in runs, we have to consider that an academic discussion.

 

[Redsfan1507]

LF is the easiest defensive OF requirement to fill-they just have to hit. It's semi- logical the Reds decided to "punt" salary wise in LF, with attempts like Gomes and Ludwick, and farmhands like Dickerson, Alonzo, Heisey, Robinson, etc. so that payroll could go to higher impact players like Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc. I think they made a salary mistake on Ludwick, that puts pressure to play him regardless of higher upside players with minor league options, like possibly Robinson, Lutz, Hamilton, or whoever comes along next year. The potential of losing Choo presents another wrinkle, that without Ludwick's $12 mil owed him might have helped resolve. If Ludwick crushes 27 HR next year, Walt will look smart. If not, and Choo leaves too, the Reds are back to needing bat help in 2 OF spots again, a long shot to solve both with rookies, IMO. A better plan might have been to bring one along this year, so only 1 rookie next year would be necessary...or they may go get another one year vet. It's tough to win now AND be covered for next year too, but this rosters championship caliber talent does have a lifespan.

I like Robinson because he has skills that address a few weaknesses...he's a switch hitter with steal speed that plays great D. He looks like a tablesetter. Lutz may be Adam Dunn- lite; he has power but may not hit for average and is a 1b in LF. Hamilton is a slap, bunt, and punch hitter with suspect glove that may be ruined in Dusty's long ball first philosophy. Heisey is a pinch hitter and 4th OF, Paul his LH platoon counterpart. At some point, they'll have to decide which way they want to go, as a 3 or 4 player alternating LF is a clusterfluck that won't give anyone enough consistent PT to get in a groove. Ludwick will be the guy Dusty goes with, and his history days he'll stick with Ludwick come he'll or high water, until he produces or Walt has to remove him from the roster. Someone younger will go away. Write it down.

 

[bengaldoug]

Pretty sure Lutz goes down if and when Ludwick returns. Would like to see Robinson get the occasional start in cf vs lefties. Choo obviously is not the same guy vs southpaws, but no way this can happen until Ludwick returns. Also would like to see Phillips stay in the cleanup spot when Ludwick comes back. He's been as solid a run producer as possible imo. Another idea (never happen) when Ludwick comes back move him into cleanup, drop Cozart to eighth and move everyone else up one spot. No way Dusty moves Votto up to second, even though his OBP combined with Choo's would make this team a run scoring machine, assuming Ludwick hits anywhere like the second half of last year.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The only thing worse than a player ( or hitter out of natural position, is having more than 1 out of position. I don't care if Cozart was a 2 hitter in AA, he hit .260 in the minors and strikes out a ton more than he walks, and isn't going to get better in MLB than he was on the farm most likely. I've never understood why Dusty seems to want a low OBP hitter in one of the top 2 spots.

ANY of the current LF are a better #2 choice, Lutz possibly the only weak argument, and he's probably gone when Heisey returns just because of 1 too many lefty hitters in the OF. BP has done a good job as a 4 hitter, but you can thank Choo, Votto in front if him, and a more consistent Jay Bruce behind him in the lineup for some if that. There is little evidence that Ludwick can step into a slugging streak even IF he comes back this year...but being a "loyal" kind if move to put Ludwick back in the 4 hole, it presents a dilemma for the stubbornly resistant to change Dusty...if he does, he's not "loyal" to BP, and is changing what has been working. Case in point is the 2 hole- Cozart HASN'T worked that well, but it's probably not going to make much difference for long to Dusty. Robinson or Paul are better choices, but won't be playing when Ludwick returns. With Dusty, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Hey, against the Cubs, Brewers, and the local VFW team, anything might work. Lets try to pay attention to the lineup Dustaroo chooses, the managerial moves he makes against probable PLAYOFF teams...and consider how effective those choices are in winning series from them. I think you'll see a trend.

 

[JohnU]

Obviously Votto is happy in the 3 spot. I think if JV wanted to move, he could get it done, owing to his talent. Phillips has established that he's happy in cleanup.

Phillips back to the 2 spot would fix the hole that Cozart presents. I think the RBI totals and the dense-useless "RISP statistics" that all the announcers are in love with this year, bowing down to something that they think is SABR-related -- all somewhat useless. Phillips and his RBI totals are a product of opportunity, not enhanced skills. If there are men on base, you get a hit, some of them score. D'oh.

The RISP baloney that every announcer spews out as something relevant ... it is NOT a statistic of value, unless of course, it's very low. That would suggest there is either nobody on base or the guy at the plate can't hit. In the 4 spot in the order, neither of those problems ought to happen if you have the top two OBP guys in the league ahead of you.

What sucks is that Cozart has almost zero skill moving Choo to third base. That would improve Votto's numbers and make the 4-5-6 guys even more productive. Productive is a concept that means -- you score runs and take the heat off your starter and put it on the opposition.

Teams that get their first two guys on base will usually score in the first inning. You score in the first inning, and your chances of winning are astronomical -- alleging you keep scoring a little here and there and have a generally qualified pitcher on the mound.

The so-called "scoring position" is simply ... be on base.

This is a lot that doesn't have anything to do with Ryan Ludwick, but if he intends to play, he needs to help the lineup. Otherwise, we don't need another 145 strikeouts in this batting order.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Cozart came thru the minors as a guy that would hit oppage, bunt and steal ( although bb:k ratio was bad)... Now, he either pulls a fastball or makes an out, never steals or bunts. That's Dusty, not Cozart. It's mostly why I am skeptical of Hamilton having success while Dusty is here. If you keep Dusty, you better fill the roster with no-brainer decisions and players that perform in the roles Dusty wants from them. I don't look for improvement other than in the skills their Momma gave them. Creativity isn't a long suit here.

 

[JohnU]

Hamilton will literally have to outrun the throw if he's in a spot where the guy behind him can't handle a 1-2 pitch that's probably going to be a pitchout. I suspect the Dusty MO will be to bunt the guy over rather than have him steal. That way, he's on second with 1 out instead second with 0 out.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's better policy to steal 2b then bunt the guy to 3b, than just to get him to 2b with an out, unless the pitcher who may be more likely to hit into a DP is at the plate. I'm no fan of the odds on scoring a runner from 2b with 1 out, but I'll take the odds of scoring from 3b with 1 out every time, why ? Because there are about 8 ways to score from 3b, even WITHOUT a hit. That's a good trivia question, huh ?