The Magic Number

[Ryanballa]

Going into todays game its at 10 to clinch a playoff spot.But like I said in another thread earlier I think we still win the Central.

 

[JohnU]

 

[Redsfan1507]

Wow...I hope so, but logic and math tells me the Reds have lost grounding the division chase..just can't seem to beat teams they should beat.

 

[bengaldoug]

Speaking of numbers, the "tragic" number for the Reds and the division chase is now 10.

 

[Ryanballa]

Yesterday hurt really bad, was probably the worst loss of the season. Today our Reds are gonna bounce back. But I would be very disappointed if they dont sweep this minor league team. Gotta get some momentum going into Pittsburgh.

 

[JohnU]

But I would be very disappointed if they dont sweep this minor league team. Gotta get some momentum going into Pittsburgh.

Here's a clue, sunshine.

The worst team in the major leagues is NOT a minor league team.
These guys have one objective -- to win every game they play.
You need to get a grip on reality.
If you win all 6 from the Parrots, you hand the division title to the Cardinals.
That's how it works.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Yep, there are a lot more games with OTHER teams than with the Pirates and Cardinals. It's what the Reds have done in THOSE games that determine what is achievable. The Pirates/Cards series just get more press.

Frankly, it's those other series that constantly frustrate me with our Reds. Most of the season, the record said the Reds just couldn't win series against a plus .500 team. Down the stretch, they've shown they play good teams with a sense of urgency and compete very well...on the other hand, against the Cubs, Rockies and Brewers, they look like they are competing for the cellar.

This is a team with questionable perspective. I could argue that common sense isn't common at all on the Reds. The talent is clearly there, though. Other post season teams have talent, too. I have to believe some may be smarter, and it does make the difference, very often. It's a long season, and IMO, if you intend to play fundamentally sound in September and October, probably should have started practicing it earlier. If Hamilton is supposed to replace Choo next year, might be a good idea to find out if he can hit MLB pitching first...what, we gonna lose a game to the Cubs, Brewers or Astros if he plays ? We can do that anyway, and so far, are no more knowledgable about Hamilton for not playing him. Zack Cozart has zero steal attempts, so please don't ask him to get a lead and steal in post season...asking Todd Frazier to bunt in September without doing it in the last 4 years, one cannot hope that he continues being a hero on a 55 ft. curveball after getting down 2 strikes stabbing at bunts, can we ?

This is what I believe:

People don't like to pitch to Choo, Phillips, Votto and Bruce. They enjoy the rest just fine, especially if they are mixed in between the 4 real hitters. They don't like to hit against Latos, or Cueto, Chapman, or Homer Bailey when he's throwing low strikes on the black. I get the impression, they don't mind Arroyo or Leake, regardless of their stats. Teams that lay off Cingrani's shoulderblade high fastball have discovered they do a lot better, and they get the worst end of the Reds pen sooner. I dont think teams are overly impressed with most of the Reds bullpen, and savvy managers tend to just hang around long enough for Dusty to help them a little.

It isnt rocket science, the scouting report is published...Billy Hamilton is going to steal, but time this short season, isn't on his side, and no one else will try. Other than Heisey (even with 2 outs ?) no one is bunting. The Reds have nothing to counter lefty pitching until the 8th inning, and it usually doesn't matter by then. If you want to split up those Reds hitters, start a lefty pitcher and watch Dusty start his wheels spinning...and sputtering...and stuttering.

 

[bengaldoug]

Update: Magic number down to 8, while the tragic number holds at 10.

 

[Ryanballa]

Here's a clue, sunshine.

The worst team in the major leagues is NOT a minor league team.
These guys have one objective -- to win every game they play.
You need to get a grip on reality.
If you win all 6 from the Parrots, you hand the division title to the Cardinals.
That's how it works.

Wrong again John, the better part of the Astros would be in the Reds minor leagues, they have a good decent young group. but its a team the Reds need to beat. This Reds team has still a really great chance at winning the division title.

 

[Beggs]

Here's a clue, sunshine.

The worst team in the major leagues is NOT a minor league team.
These guys have one objective -- to win every game they play.
You need to get a grip on reality.
If you win all 6 from the Parrots, you hand the division title to the Cardinals.
That's how it works.

A bastion of postivity again.

Cardinals have 11 games left against the Rockies, Brewers, Cubs, and Nationals.
They are only 3-2 against the rockies with 2 games left
They have spanked the brewers (12-4) this season with the brewers only winning one game at home.
They have a home series against the Cubs, which seems like it would be easy, but they are 9-7 overall against the cubs, and only 3-2 at home.
The nationals are playing for a chance to get into the playoffs. They were swept at home early in the season, but every game was close.

Saying they have it in the bag, even with a 6 game sweep of pittsburgh is borderline retarded.

 

[WvuDieHard]

I think we match up against the Pirates very well and have played them well this season with a 6-7 record. The Cards are 9-10 against the Pirates so it will be interesting to see how we fare this weekend. Keep an eye out for DustMop Follies. This series will be another test of the IQ inadequacies of the toothpicker as he will fumble and bumble his way with pitchers and lineups which always will leave you scratching your head. The best scenario for the Reds right now is to knock the Pirates to a 2nd WC team and get them at home in a 1 game playoff. I don't see the Cards faltering down the stretch. They win the games they are suppose too unlike Dustmop's squad who have squandered games against the Cubs and Brewers which will prove to be the division losing dagger in about 2 weeks.

 

[Beggs]

I think we match up against the Pirates very well and have played them well this season with a 6-7 record. The Cards are 9-10 against the Pirates so it will be interesting to see how we fare this weekend. Keep an eye out for DustMop Follies. This series will be another test of the IQ inadequacies of the toothpicker as he will fumble and bumble his way with pitchers and lineups which always will leave you scratching your head. The best scenario for the Reds right now is to knock the Pirates to a 2nd WC team and get them at home in a 1 game playoff. I don't see the Cards faltering down the stretch. They win the games they are suppose too unlike Dustmop's squad who have squandered games against the Cubs and Brewers which will prove to be the division losing dagger in about 2 weeks.

Cards 9-7 against the cubs
Brewers 10-6 against the cubs
Reds 14-5 against the cubs.

One bad series and its dustys fault. It wouldnt be that the Reds hitters managed to get only 1 run off 17 hits in two games. It wouldnt be Cingrani got hurt. No, it's because of dusty.

 

[bengaldoug]

Magic number down to 7 while the tragic number is down to 9. We still have hope if we can beat the Parrots while the dirty birds need to have some struggles.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Reds are like most MLB teams- they are capable of winning or losing against any other team any single game. Unfortunately, unless they win the division, that is their opportunity- one game.

Part if what makes baseball unique is the long season- twice as long as any other major pro sport- and a residual of that requires more of a complete team effort. It requires more management of not only the technical game but of players health. The idea is to be as prepared at the end than the competition. It's a macro task- roster, matchups, health, fundamentals and execution. Momentum doesn't start a week before playoffs, it should start much earlier. There are unforeseen events to deal with, but better prepared teams usually fare better. Last year, the Reds rotation was in tact all season- a rare piece of good fortune, and they got their best player (Votto) back in time for a playoff push. They lost their #1 SP in the first game of the playoffs, but didnt lose because of that...they lost an historic 3 straight at home after being up 2-0 away, punished by critical mistakes in all 3 losses, in which the manager played a crucial role. It's a team game, and in a series, any weaknesses of any members of the team are often exposed. Every team has weaknesses...the roster is as solid as any, but the Reds weaknesses extend beyond the roster-they simply aren't usually prepared very well, and often make mental mistakes that turn the tide.

A one game playoff doesn't speak to determining the best team, it speaks to determining the best prepared for that game. IMO, that doesn't sound like the Reds at this point.

The Reds have other good fortune- they get their former #1 SP back, their former cleanup hitter back, and are as healthy as possible going into post season. They played 5 of the worst teams in MLB among their last few regular season series, only 3 games out of 1st place. They added the best base stealer in the histiry of the minor leagues to address a conplete lack if running game, but still havent given gim an opportunity to see if he can hit enough to be on a post season roster, much less take over for Choo next year...If our Reds couldn't win the division with all that good fortune in their favor, they have zero momentum, OR sense of urgency, IMO. They have won zero home playoff games since their re-arrival as a pertinent team in Dusty's tenure. I don't see improvements in baserunning or fundamental execution or evaluation of Hamilton, as preparations for post season. I just don't believe teams wind up after a 162 game season, and several rounds of post season series, as World Champs, just by winging it.

I have no confidence in Dusty Baker, or the teams ability to make up for him, especially in a short series.

 

[Ryanballa]

A bastion of postivity again.

Cardinals have 11 games left against the Rockies, Brewers, Cubs, and Nationals.
They are only 3-2 against the rockies with 2 games left
They have spanked the brewers (12-4) this season with the brewers only winning one game at home.
They have a home series against the Cubs, which seems like it would be easy, but they are 9-7 overall against the cubs, and only 3-2 at home.
The nationals are playing for a chance to get into the playoffs. They were swept at home early in the season, but every game was close.

Saying they have it in the bag, even with a 6 game sweep of pittsburgh is borderline retarded.

This is 100% right, as of right now its anybodys division. In the end I do think Our Reds will pull it out and win. The Buccos are struggling right now and the Cards still play some teams that put up a good fight. This division is far from over.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Reds have, and continue to underachieve this year, for the talent they have. The division race sure isn't over...but since the Reds have lost more series than they've won in the last several, even though the Rockies, Cubs and Brewers were lousy teams, the losses the Reds had playing them has negated impressive wins against the Cardinals and Dodgers. They still have the Door-Mets and Pirates left...and are still three wins down to avoid a one game playoff and starting on the road-with only a week to go.

I don't like the Reds pissing away multiple opportunities, then acting all hotdog (BP's butt tag) thumping a bad team. It's all bad karma for me.

 

[bengaldoug]

Magic number to eliminate the Nats is now 2. Hopefully the Parrots will lose a couple so that the Nats can find the incentive to bash the birds. The tragic number for the division is 5. Just have to keep winning and hope for the best.