Series Thread: The Long-Term Mistake They're Making!

[Stymietee]

I considered whether or not to write and post this over this past week and decided that the deciding question centered on @dad. He promised an in-depth look at reasons not to make the big splash until next year because this one (2024), is all about "seeing what we have," and building upon that in the predictions thread.

After careful consideration, He (@dad) is much more in line with the current management of the team than I, and the following will outline why such reasoning leads to a long-term, sooner-than-necessary quandary.



Take note of the tier caption, "We're just here for the QB," which agrees with @dad and the current management team. While it isn't unreasonable to play it out this way, i.e. proved certainty over speculation, such positions also are evidence of a certain lack of confidence in the QB going into the current season. That said, there's no reason to take the field with any pretense to want to win if '"evaluation' is the goal. The one problem I have with this approach happens to be there is a pretense at the highest levels. C'mon!, Adam Peters, back me up on this one...





Here's the thing, I believe that he believes this, but action being louder than words, rings hollow because "win" becomes subjective and there were moves that could have been made to shore up known weak spots and give the team greater chances to win more games. Perhaps Peters has been operating under instruction from new team owner Josh Harris, who has expressed a strong commitment to improving the team’s performance. In a recent press conference, he emphasized the importance of building a winning culture and attracting the best talent, famously or infamously adding this caveat to this year's team... "They should perform better than last year's four-win season." What that means is anybody's guess.

An interesting comparison is the Chicago Bears who similiarly will be starting a rookie QB but opted to load their team with talents that suggest that they have full confidence in their rookie and doing all that they can to make a playoff push now win their division despite the odds. They've completely skipped the first year, more conservative, "evaluation" process in favor of keeping open their rookie contract Super Bowl window longer than the aforementioned slower approach. Here's why...

Successful quarterbacks often receive new contracts around the end of their third or fourth year in the NFL. This timing allows teams to evaluate their performance over a few seasons before committing to a long-term deal. For example, Patrick Mahomes signed his massive extension with Kansas City after his third season. Similarly, Josh Allen received his new contract from Buffalo, after his third year. Other more recent post-third year new contracts include: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts.

This trend helps teams lock in their franchise quarterbacks before they hit free agency, ensuring stability and continuity for the team’s future.

The best chance for any team to reach the Super Bowl is when the quarterback is working on his rookie contract. After that, teams are obligated to reward quarterbacks with rich contract extensions, which means less money to build the rest of the team.

The urgency to win in the NFL while a quarterback (QB) is on a rookie contract stems from the financial flexibility it provides. This combination of financial flexibility and the ability to build a more balanced team creates a sense of urgency for teams to capitalize on the opportunity to win while their QB is still on a cost-effective rookie deal.

So Sty how on earth does this translate to a long-term mistake for the Commanders? (people want to know)

Their current approach leaves them with a one-year window to get it done, it being a Super Bowl appearance and hopefully a win. Here's the breakdown... (optimistically)

1. Year one, due to uncertainty, a lack of confidence, and/or this more conservative approach, became exactly as @dad stated it to be, "an evaluation year!" (Daniels proves himself)
2. Year two, they load up through the draft, free agency, and trade, essentially becoming what Chicago is now, a team in a position to make a serious playoff push.
3. Year three, the window, and they're ready to etch their names on a Lombardi come hell or high water. This team is loaded and favored to get there. Daniels now entering his third year has further cemented himself as the unquestioned QB of the franchise, because they don't lose games, they win them.

So what's the problem??

Oh, wait, what was that little thing mentioned in the last part of year three? His third season and typically the year after which you're going to pay your QB and lose all of the financial flexibility used to build the SB team. Now cuts have to be made, your one-year SB window closes or is closing and you're putting more responsibility on your QBs shoulders. Some people will be completely satisfied with an outcome like this and that's fine, the question to them becomes, of course, is it a mistake in failing to make that initial push as the Bears are doing with a two-year window in sight, in favor of the three-year plan that nets a one-year rookie contract window?

 

[gkekoa]

I considered whether or not to write and post this over this past week and decided that the deciding question centered on @dad. He promised an in-depth look at reasons not to make the big splash until next year because this one (2024), is all about "seeing what we have," and building upon that in the predictions thread.

After careful consideration, He (@dad) is much more in line with the current management of the team than I, and the following will outline why such reasoning leads to a long-term, sooner-than-necessary quandary.

View attachment 373060

Take note of the tier caption, "We're just here for the QB," which agrees with @dad and the current management team. While it isn't unreasonable to play it out this way, i.e. proved certainty over speculation, such positions also are evidence of a certain lack of confidence in the QB going into the current season. That said, there's no reason to take the field with any pretense to want to win if '"evaluation' is the goal. The one problem I have with this approach happens to be there is a pretense at the highest levels. C'mon!, Adam Peters, back me up on this one...


View attachment 373061


Here's the thing, I believe that he believes this, but action being louder than words, rings hollow because "win" becomes subjective and there were moves that could have been made to shore up known weak spots and give the team greater chances to win more games. Perhaps Peters has been operating under instruction from new team owner Josh Harris, who has expressed a strong commitment to improving the team’s performance. In a recent press conference, he emphasized the importance of building a winning culture and attracting the best talent, famously or infamously adding this caveat to this year's team... "They should perform better than last year's four-win season." What that means is anybody's guess.

An interesting comparison is the Chicago Bears who similiarly will be starting a rookie QB but opted to load their team with talents that suggest that they have full confidence in their rookie and doing all that they can to make a playoff push now win their division despite the odds. They've completely skipped the first year, more conservative, "evaluation" process in favor of keeping open their rookie contract Super Bowl window longer than the aforementioned slower approach. Here's why...

Successful quarterbacks often receive new contracts around the end of their third or fourth year in the NFL. This timing allows teams to evaluate their performance over a few seasons before committing to a long-term deal. For example, Patrick Mahomes signed his massive extension with Kansas City after his third season. Similarly, Josh Allen received his new contract from Buffalo, after his third year. Other more recent post-third year new contracts include: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts.

This trend helps teams lock in their franchise quarterbacks before they hit free agency, ensuring stability and continuity for the team’s future.

The best chance for any team to reach the Super Bowl is when the quarterback is working on his rookie contract. After that, teams are obligated to reward quarterbacks with rich contract extensions, which means less money to build the rest of the team.

The urgency to win in the NFL while a quarterback (QB) is on a rookie contract stems from the financial flexibility it provides. This combination of financial flexibility and the ability to build a more balanced team creates a sense of urgency for teams to capitalize on the opportunity to win while their QB is still on a cost-effective rookie deal.

So Sty how on earth does this translate to a long-term mistake for the Commanders? (people want to know)

Their current approach leaves them with a one-year window to get it done, it being a Super Bowl appearance and hopefully a win. Here's the breakdown... (optimistically)

1. Year one, due to uncertainty, a lack of confidence, and/or this more conservative approach, became exactly as @dad stated it to be, "an evaluation year!" (Daniels proves himself)
2. Year two, they load up through the draft, free agency, and trade, essentially becoming what Chicago is now, a team in a position to make a serious playoff push.
3. Year three, the window, and they're ready to etch their names on a Lombardi come hell or high water. This team is loaded and favored to get there. Daniels now entering his third year has further cemented himself as the unquestioned QB of the franchise, because they don't lose games, they win them.

So what's the problem??

Oh, wait, what was that little thing mentioned in the last part of year three? His third season and typically the year after which you're going to pay your QB and lose all of the financial flexibility used to build the SB team. Now cuts have to be made, your one-year SB window closes or is closing and you're putting more responsibility on your QBs shoulders. Some people will be completely satisfied with an outcome like this and that's fine, the question to them becomes, of course, is it a mistake in failing to make that initial push as the Bears are doing with a two-year window in sight, in favor of the three-year plan that nets a one-year rookie contract window?

Just because you choose to extend your rookie QB in year three doesn’t mean you shorten the rookie contract. The rookie contract remains as do those cap hits. An extension just puts years and money after if you want it that way.

Justin Herbert signed his extension and in year four counted 8.5 mil against the cap. Even this season, he will count less than 20 million against the cap, year 5.

 

[kbso83432]

I considered whether or not to write and post this over this past week and decided that the deciding question centered on @dad. He promised an in-depth look at reasons not to make the big splash until next year because this one (2024), is all about "seeing what we have," and building upon that in the predictions thread.

After careful consideration, He (@dad) is much more in line with the current management of the team than I, and the following will outline why such reasoning leads to a long-term, sooner-than-necessary quandary.

View attachment 373060

Take note of the tier caption, "We're just here for the QB," which agrees with @dad and the current management team. While it isn't unreasonable to play it out this way, i.e. proved certainty over speculation, such positions also are evidence of a certain lack of confidence in the QB going into the current season. That said, there's no reason to take the field with any pretense to want to win if '"evaluation' is the goal. The one problem I have with this approach happens to be there is a pretense at the highest levels. C'mon!, Adam Peters, back me up on this one...


View attachment 373061


Here's the thing, I believe that he believes this, but action being louder than words, rings hollow because "win" becomes subjective and there were moves that could have been made to shore up known weak spots and give the team greater chances to win more games. Perhaps Peters has been operating under instruction from new team owner Josh Harris, who has expressed a strong commitment to improving the team’s performance. In a recent press conference, he emphasized the importance of building a winning culture and attracting the best talent, famously or infamously adding this caveat to this year's team... "They should perform better than last year's four-win season." What that means is anybody's guess.

An interesting comparison is the Chicago Bears who similiarly will be starting a rookie QB but opted to load their team with talents that suggest that they have full confidence in their rookie and doing all that they can to make a playoff push now win their division despite the odds. They've completely skipped the first year, more conservative, "evaluation" process in favor of keeping open their rookie contract Super Bowl window longer than the aforementioned slower approach. Here's why...

Successful quarterbacks often receive new contracts around the end of their third or fourth year in the NFL. This timing allows teams to evaluate their performance over a few seasons before committing to a long-term deal. For example, Patrick Mahomes signed his massive extension with Kansas City after his third season. Similarly, Josh Allen received his new contract from Buffalo, after his third year. Other more recent post-third year new contracts include: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts.

This trend helps teams lock in their franchise quarterbacks before they hit free agency, ensuring stability and continuity for the team’s future.

The best chance for any team to reach the Super Bowl is when the quarterback is working on his rookie contract. After that, teams are obligated to reward quarterbacks with rich contract extensions, which means less money to build the rest of the team.

The urgency to win in the NFL while a quarterback (QB) is on a rookie contract stems from the financial flexibility it provides. This combination of financial flexibility and the ability to build a more balanced team creates a sense of urgency for teams to capitalize on the opportunity to win while their QB is still on a cost-effective rookie deal.

So Sty how on earth does this translate to a long-term mistake for the Commanders? (people want to know)

Their current approach leaves them with a one-year window to get it done, it being a Super Bowl appearance and hopefully a win. Here's the breakdown... (optimistically)

1. Year one, due to uncertainty, a lack of confidence, and/or this more conservative approach, became exactly as @dad stated it to be, "an evaluation year!" (Daniels proves himself)
2. Year two, they load up through the draft, free agency, and trade, essentially becoming what Chicago is now, a team in a position to make a serious playoff push.
3. Year three, the window, and they're ready to etch their names on a Lombardi come hell or high water. This team is loaded and favored to get there. Daniels now entering his third year has further cemented himself as the unquestioned QB of the franchise, because they don't lose games, they win them.

So what's the problem??

Oh, wait, what was that little thing mentioned in the last part of year three? His third season and typically the year after which you're going to pay your QB and lose all of the financial flexibility used to build the SB team. Now cuts have to be made, your one-year SB window closes or is closing and you're putting more responsibility on your QBs shoulders. Some people will be completely satisfied with an outcome like this and that's fine, the question to them becomes, of course, is it a mistake in failing to make that initial push as the Bears are doing with a two-year window in sight, in favor of the three-year plan that nets a one-year rookie contract window?

Good post Sty. There's more than one way to skin a cat. I tend to lean on the more aggressive side. Peters wanted Aiyuk, but the 49ers wanted McLaurin.

Peters is trying to make moves and be aggressive. The fact that we passed on Aiyuk is not a sign of Peters punting on the season. He inquired. He's looking for the right deal, but make no mistake, he's looking.

The Adams stuff was laughable. What is he 31?

Bears are definitely my sleeper. Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet, Swift......

I've settled in and am willing to eat my veggies this year, but 2025 needs to be an aggressive off-season, especially if Jayden plays well.

The days of Ron Rivera and 5 year plans are over.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

in the draft of 2025,they need to address the ol and db positions imo.

 

[gkekoa]

in the draft of 2025,they need to address the ol and db positions imo.

In the draft, they need to go after the most talented players.

 

[kbso83432]

in the draft of 2025,they need to address the ol and db positions imo.

WR imo.....McLaurin is about to be on the wrong side of 30.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

WR imo.....McLaurin is about to be on the wrong side of 30.

that too,not like db/oline though.

 

[kbso83432]

In the draft, they need to go after the most talented players.

RB is a luxury, but this guy can ball.

 

[Stymietee]

Just because you choose to extend your rookie QB in year three doesn’t mean you shorten the rookie contract. The rookie contract remains as do those cap hits. An extension just puts years and money after if you want it that way.

Justin Herbert signed his extension and in year four counted 8.5 mil against the cap. Even this season, he will count less than 20 million against the cap, year 5.

 

[Stymietee]

Just because you choose to extend your rookie QB in year three doesn’t mean you shorten the rookie contract. The rookie contract remains as do those cap hits. An extension just puts years and money after if you want it that way.

Justin Herbert signed his extension and in year four counted 8.5 mil against the cap. Even this season, he will count less than 20 million against the cap, year 5.

So, to be clear, you want to talk about extensions and totally skip over the fact that the most important thing in all of this is the unique, once per rookie QB is having to pay peanuts for his services?

 

[PDay8810]

So, to be clear, you want to talk about extensions and totally skip over the fact that the most important thing in all of this is the unique, once per rookie QB is having to pay peanuts for his services?

short response.... YES!

 

[Stymietee]

Good post Sty. There's more than one way to skin a cat. I tend to lean on the more aggressive side. Peters wanted Aiyuk, but the 49ers wanted McLaurin.

Peters is trying to make moves and be aggressive. The fact that we passed on Aiyuk is not a sign of Peters punting on the season. He inquired. He's looking for the right deal, but make no mistake, he's looking.

The Adams stuff was laughable. What is he 31?

Bears are definitely my sleeper. Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet, Swift......

I've settled in and am willing to eat my veggies this year, but 2025 needs to be an aggressive off-season, especially if Jayden plays well.

The days of Ron Rivera and 5 year plans are over.

I agree, right now they are on a three-year path with a one-year window before having to address or pay Daniels.

I do understand rolling over monies and preparing for next year, where hopefully, they load up AND make a SB run. That would preserve the two-year window, otherwise they are targeting 2026 and the inevitable questions about what to do with Daniels. Let's say he's "that dude" and they want him to play out his rookie contract as the Ravens did with Lamar, any subsequent contract is gonna cost more. If they franchise tag him after that it's gonna cost more money in a new contract. Why? Because today's prices aren't tomorrow's prices. To me that's why you give up the new contract sooner!

 

[skinsdad62]

the roster on this team is not ready to compete as a superbowl contender . it has about 9 starters who could start for a contending team . it needs another draft for sure .

there is a time to be aggressive and a time to be measured , now is the time to be measured

i dont worry about rookie contracts and such as we know the cap goes up every year . if you continue to draft well hten you can build the team long term

players come and go , thats the side the tree falls

we have lots of cap space next year , our dead space will reduce (we have 31 mil in dead cap space ) we have 8 draft picks (4 in top 100) and a FO who looks to have hit this current draft out of the park . we are in good position to sign Tee Higgins next off season so i am feeling good about the team

 

[gkekoa]

RB is a luxury, but this guy can ball.

No RBs.

 

[gkekoa]

So, to be clear, you want to talk about extensions and totally skip over the fact that the most important thing in all of this is the unique, once per rookie QB is having to pay peanuts for his services?

No…I am stating just because you extend in year 3, doesn’t mean you only get three years of cheap service. As a matter of fact, you get extended years of cheap service by comparison. Herbert will only count 37 million to their 2025 cap.

 

[Stymietee]

No…I am stating just because you extend in year 3, doesn’t mean you only get three years of cheap service. As a matter of fact, you get extended years of cheap service by comparison. Herbert will only count 37 million to their 2025 cap.

Well, let's take a look... Here's his rookie deal



...And here's his "extension:

 

[gkekoa]

That is exactly what I said…that is where I got my info.

 

[Sportster 72]

That is exactly what I said…that is where I got my info.

You were right on.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

RB is a luxury, but this guy can ball.

the kid from Arizona ran for a country mile against nm sat night.

 

[gkekoa]

the kid from Arizona ran for a country mile against nm sat night.

Run all you want but why would I spend a first on Bijan when I can get Pacheco in the seventh. Either way, the shelf life expires with the rookie contract.