The killer 17-game stretch that sunk the Mariners season

[PolarVortex]

On September 6th the Mariners were 15 games over .500 and sitting at 78-63. They went 5-12 over their next 17 games as the starting pitching finally collapsed after over-achieving all year long.

Starting pitching during this stretch:
The team went 2-2 when Felix started. He had a 2.19 ERA
The team went 1-1 when Walker started. He had a 1.97 ERA
The team went 1-1 when Elias started. He had a 3.00 ERA
The team went 1-3 when Paxson started. He had a 5.91 ERA. Paxson's ERA is misleading. He pitched well in threee games and then was completely destoyed by Toronto.
The team went 0-2 when Young started. He had a 9.00 ERA
The team went 0-3 when Iwakuma started. He had a 11.25 ERA

So, to summarize:
4-4 with Walker, Elias, Hernandez
1-8 with Young, Iwakuma, Paxson

How much more beneficial might it hve been if we had gotten another starting pitcher instead of AJax and Morales, who basically did nothing for us? Not second-gueessing JKAck Zhere. I thnk at the time none of us wanted Jack to pursue pitching.

 

[wazzu31]

On September 6th the Mariners were 15 games over .500 and sitting at 78-63. They went 5-12 over their next 17 games as the starting pitching finally collapsed after over-achieving all year long.

Starting pitching during this stretch:
The team went 2-2 when Felix started. He had a 2.19 ERA
The team went 1-1 when Walker started. He had a 1.97 ERA
The team went 1-1 when Elias started. He had a 3.00 ERA
The team went 1-3 when Paxson started. He had a 5.91 ERA. Paxson's ERA is misleading. He pitched well in threee games and then was completely destoyed by Toronto.
The team went 0-2 when Young started. He had a 9.00 ERA
The team went 0-3 when Iwakuma started. He had a 11.25 ERA

So, to summarize:
4-4 with Walker, Elias, Hernandez
1-8 with Young, Iwakuma, Paxson

How much more beneficial might it hve been if we had gotten another starting pitcher instead of AJax and Morales, who basically did nothing for us? Not second-gueessing JKAck Zhere. I thnk at the time none of us wanted Jack to pursue pitching.

I don't think people were against getting a pitcher. I was firmly against trading the farm as reported for Price if it were just for Price. The team needed offense and a 3-5 starter. I would've been fine with Walker in the deal to Tampa if it were Price and Zobrist or Loney

 

[dude82]

Iwakuma's drop-off was the most surprising thing in the last month of the season. He went from having probably the best control of anybody in the rotation through August to walking guys left and right in September. I don't think anybody could have or should have anticipated that. If Iwakuma had been the Iwakuma we had come to expect prior to this month, the M's would at least be playing the A's for the second wildcard spot right now. Of all the pitchers in the rotation that people expected to implode in September, I think even Felix was higher on that list than Iwakuma. Young and the rookies certainly were.

 

[wazzu31]

Iwakuma's drop-off was the most surprising thing in the last month of the season. He went from having probably the best control of anybody in the rotation through August to walking guys left and right in September. I don't think anybody could have or should have anticipated that. If Iwakuma had been the Iwakuma we had come to expect prior to this month, the M's would at least be playing the A's for the second wildcard spot right now. Of all the pitchers in the rotation that people expected to implode in September, I think even Felix was higher on that list than Iwakuma. Young and the rookies certainly were.

That's another thing that isn't really brought up either. Iwakuma's drop off, that is definitely a cause for concern. If his fall off is permanent then that opens another huge hole. I think it is going to be hard to count on Paxton, Walker (or whoever) and Elias for the full season or any of them to be counted on as a number 2 if Iwakuma is the book is indeed out on him.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Kuma's drop off could have been tied to the this injury that propped up.

Mariners Injury Update: Hisashi Iwakuma battling groin and back problems ~ Sports Injury Alert

If so it would explain the final month

 

[dude82]

Kuma's drop off could have been tied to the this injury that propped up.

Mariners Injury Update: Hisashi Iwakuma battling groin and back problems ~ Sports Injury Alert

If so it would explain the final month

Agreed. He had a couple of injuries this year that either kept him out or impacted his pitching. Hopefully that's not the case next year.

 

[AceKeptic]

This goes back to what I said in another post regarding the Downfall. Yes, it was disappointing with what happened to our pitching, but what about our offense as well?

It was a thrill ride for that wild card spot, but if you want any spot in the playoffs, you'd better be damned ready AS A TEAM to take on those other teams. But because of our lackluster offense and inability to put up many runs in that stretch, we were not.

It would have been embarrassing to watch us in the post-season struggling to put runs on the board, and our pitchers knew that. They WOULD have to let a few games slide in order to save us the humiliation. The fact that the race for that last spot STILL came down to the wire was a bit of a shock, but still, better to take the time now to look for new bats than to let the old ones disgrace the team, the fans, all of Seattle...you get the idea.

 

[dude82]

This goes back to what I said in another post regarding the Downfall. Yes, it was disappointing with what happened to our pitching, but what about our offense as well?

It was a thrill ride for that wild card spot, but if you want any spot in the playoffs, you'd better be damned ready AS A TEAM to take on those other teams. But because of our lackluster offense and inability to put up many runs in that stretch, we were not.

It would have been embarrassing to watch us in the post-season struggling to put runs on the board, and our pitchers knew that. They WOULD have to let a few games slide in order to save us the humiliation. The fact that the race for that last spot STILL came down to the wire was a bit of a shock, but still, better to take the time now to look for new bats than to let the old ones disgrace the team, the fans, all of Seattle...you get the idea.

Are you really suggesting that some of the pitchers pitched some bad games on purpose, missing the playoffs in the process, because they didn't want to be "humiliated" by the offense? Please tell me that I interpreted that wrong and that it wasn't your intent to suggest that one of the reasons we missed the playoffs after 5 months of mostly really good pitching is that the pitchers decided they didn't want to be "humiliated" by the offense in the playoffs and took matters into their own hands by tanking.

A guy like Felix has been here 10 years and never been to the playoffs. He's not gonna "let games slide" when he finally has a chance to get there just because he's afraid the offense might not do well once they get there. A guy like Young was probably pitching for a job somewhere next season. He's sure as hell not gonna "let games slide" to avoid the "humiliation" that the offense might have provided in the playoffs. Not if doing so meant the difference between pitching in the majors next year for a better salary than he got this year and either pitching in the majors next year for roughly the same salary, pitching in the minors for less money or having to retire due to lack of interest.

Guys like Paxton and Walker were pitching for spots in the rotation next year, which would have been harder to come by had they decided to tank it to avoid playoff "humiliation". Iwakuma missed time in the beginning of the season with an injury and got hurt again towards the end of the season and tried to pitch through it. He's already going to hear questions about how much he has left in the tank because of that. It would have done him no favors to not pitch well on purpose when he wasn't hurt.

If this is what you're suggesting, I'll say the same thing I said on the ESPN Seahawks board in 2010 when people thought that the Seahawks should basically go into evaluation mode that December and play for draft position rather than "humiliate" themselves by limping into a division title at 7-9, get destroyed at home by whomever their first round opponent was going to be and drop a handful of spots in the draft behind teams that ultimately had better records than they did. I said that if you have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, you should do everything you can to make it because you never know when you'll get that chance again and you never know what might happen once you get to the playoffs. In this case, you know what happened next. Obviously baseball is different from football in many ways, but the point is that even the possibility of getting humiliated in the playoffs can lead to good things in the future if the reaction to that possibility is the right one.

 

[wazzu31]

Are you really suggesting that some of the pitchers pitched some bad games on purpose, missing the playoffs in the process, because they didn't want to be "humiliated" by the offense? Please tell me that I interpreted that wrong and that it wasn't your intent to suggest that one of the reasons we missed the playoffs after 5 months of mostly really good pitching is that the pitchers decided they didn't want to be "humiliated" by the offense in the playoffs and took matters into their own hands by tanking.

A guy like Felix has been here 10 years and never been to the playoffs. He's not gonna "let games slide" when he finally has a chance to get there just because he's afraid the offense might not do well once they get there. A guy like Young was probably pitching for a job somewhere next season. He's sure as hell not gonna "let games slide" to avoid the "humiliation" that the offense might have provided in the playoffs. Not if doing so meant the difference between pitching in the majors next year for a better salary than he got this year and either pitching in the majors next year for roughly the same salary, pitching in the minors for less money or having to retire due to lack of interest.

Guys like Paxton and Walker were pitching for spots in the rotation next year, which would have been harder to come by had they decided to tank it to avoid playoff "humiliation". Iwakuma missed time in the beginning of the season with an injury and got hurt again towards the end of the season and tried to pitch through it. He's already going to hear questions about how much he has left in the tank because of that. It would have done him no favors to not pitch well on purpose when he wasn't hurt.

If this is what you're suggesting, I'll say the same thing I said on the ESPN Seahawks board in 2010 when people thought that the Seahawks should basically go into evaluation mode that December and play for draft position rather than "humiliate" themselves by limping into a division title at 7-9, get destroyed at home by whomever their first round opponent was going to be and drop a handful of spots in the draft behind teams that ultimately had better records than they did. I said that if you have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, you should do everything you can to make it because you never know when you'll get that chance again and you never know what might happen once you get to the playoffs. In this case, you know what happened next. Obviously baseball is different from football in many ways, but the point is that even the possibility of getting humiliated in the playoffs can lead to good things in the future if the reaction to that possibility is the right one.

Ya, I can't even think a pitcher would ever throw a game because of his offense. He might throw poorly because of his offense but not just mail it in, especially guys like Felix who was still going for the cy young, Iwakuma who is going to need a new contract soon, Young who needs to prove he can pitch in the big leagues and Paxton and Walker as you said are trying to prove themselves capable of pitching in the bigs.

And the notion of getting humilated in the playoffs is also rather silly as it is a series not one games. Baseball isn't like football. You can get humiliated one night but then come back the next night and win. The Seahawks would've won a series if they played the Broncos in a best of 7 but I highly doubt they win any other game in the series the way they beat them down in the Super Bowl.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I'd move on from Chris Young. I honestly felt like his stellar pitching early on was a bit of a fluke. It doesn't surprise me that he fell apart.

 

[wazzu31]

I'd move on from Chris Young. I honestly felt like his stellar pitching early on was a bit of a fluke. It doesn't surprise me that he fell apart.

Depending on his contract demands, I wouldn't mind bringing him back. The guy hadn't pitched a full season in what almost 3 years? They will need another vet to ride while saving innings on Elias, Walker and most likely still Paxton next season.

Get Stanton, screw Romero or Chavez or whoever the extra OF would be and go with a 6 man rotation.