The Giants need to bring Tim Lincecum back next year

[Band of Brothers]

Watching Tim Lincecum over the years grow up a Giant in every start he seemed to have that something special that surrounds him. You watched with a anticipation of something special happening on that day and he usually delivered . Even when he had his down times and was sent packing to the bullpen he rose above all the talk and did his thing winning a second championship throwing darts in the playoffs.

Lincecum's contract is coming to a end and now there is talk again of the Giants letting him walk away in free agency. I for one think that would be a terrible mistake. Lincecum is about to enter another chapter in his life and he is learning each day how to become the pitcher and not just the thrower. When you have a kid with as big a heart as he has you simply can not let him go away. He is turning the corner and is a valuable player to keep on the team. Besides Buster Posey , Tim Lincecum is the heartbeat of this Giants team. He just threw a no-hitter which was not a fluke. His stuff is back and he has grown up on the mound in front of all of us.

Lincecum is well liked in the clubhouse and players play for him. He has a rubber arm which is hard to find and he has the heart of a Champion. I don't know what it's going to take to resign him but it would be wise to get it done. Tim Lincecum is one of ours...homegrown in the Giants system and it would be a shame to see him go. I can see his game taking shape again ...let's hope Sabean and the owners see the same thing I see. It's been a tough year so far but losing Lincecum would make it worse. Get it done Sabean...he is one of us.

Go Giants !!

 

[sfsportsfan]

i see the giants going hard to keep him. hes just going to have to realize hes not a 20mill a year pitcher anymore.

what would everyone give him a year? i can see him being around 15 a year.

 

[calsnowskier]

i see the giants going hard to keep him. hes just going to have to realize hes not a 20mill a year pitcher anymore.

what would everyone give him a year? i can see him being around 15 a year.

I would be OK going with the slight over-pay of 3/50. We need the rotation spot filled, and he is a face of the org.

I would like to do that with the understanding that by late '15 or '16, he may need to move to the pen, with the Uber-Arms beginning to break in.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I would be OK going with the slight over-pay of 3/50. We need the rotation spot filled, and he is a face of the org.

I would like to do that with the understanding that by late '15 or '16, he may need to move to the pen, with the Uber-Arms beginning to break in.

Wow. "Slight"? We are pretty far apart. I believe he will continue to trend down. I think it was you who felt that Pence would not age well because of mechanics. That applies to Lincecum by an order of magnitude greater (even though I don't think it applies to Pence at all in the slightest - just the opposite because Pence is a conditioning freak).

I would offer him 2/20 max. And that's primarily because of the sentimental value. I'm hoping either offer is moot because we trade him to someone who will wildly overpay.

 

[sfsportsfan]

I would be OK going with the slight over-pay of 3/50. We need the rotation spot filled, and he is a face of the org.

I would like to do that with the understanding that by late '15 or '16, he may need to move to the pen, with the Uber-Arms beginning to break in.

think im in your ballpark. 3 years, with maybe an option of some sort. too many question marks, imo. Zeets is all but gone, Vogeys no kid, Gaudin has been good but will he be next year.

Plus the team will make it up with the marketing he brings.


and Mays, how could you say hes trending down when this year is muuuuuch better than last year?

 

[calsnowskier]

Timmeh is no longer CY Timmeh. But he is a very good 3. He has learned how to pitch this year, and that is exciting. There us no way he signs for 2/20. I strongly expect him to decline the QO and either walk or sign a 2 or 3 yr deal with us.

Mays, how do you figure that he will be traded? There is no way he would clear waivers, so he will NOT be traded.

 

[Mays-Fan]

think im in your ballpark. 3 years, with maybe an option of some sort. too many question marks, imo. Zeets is all but gone, Vogeys no kid, Gaudin has been good but will he be next year.

Plus the team will make it up with the marketing he brings.


and Mays, how could you say hes trending down when this year is muuuuuch better than last year?

I'm looking at his career trend, not just the last 16 months. And last I checked, he ain't getting any younger. Any uptick this year is likely only temporary.

I have been a Giants fan for 50 years. From a fan's perspective, what Timmy has done for me can not possibly be measured in dollar terms. However, this is a business, and the Giants are now bigger than any one player. Any money overpaid to him because of what he's done in the past, versus what he will bring going forward, is money that could have gone to sign a free agent, extend an up-and-comer, used to develop our prospects, or hell, just pay down the mortgage. Maybe 2/20 is a little low, but 3/50 with option years is waaaaay too high. IMHO.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I'd go 3/36 with the third year being a team option with a 4M buy out

 

[Band of Brothers]

I think 3 years at 40 - 45 mill would be fair to both sides of the deal.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Timmy's WAR by year:

2007: +2.3
2008: +7.9
2009: +7.5
2010: +3.7
2011: +4.2
2012: -1.7
2013: -0.7

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml

 

[tzill]

I would be OK going with the slight over-pay of 3/50. We need the rotation spot filled, and he is a face of the org.

I would like to do that with the understanding that by late '15 or '16, he may need to move to the pen, with the Uber-Arms beginning to break in.

not me.

Dude has been truly a bad pitcher for the last two years. His ERA+ for 2012, 1013: 68, 76. His WAR: -1.7, -0.7. Let's say he finishes out the year as he's been pitching the last 10 starts (not an unreasonable projection). He'd end up about 100 (average) ERA+ and 0.2 WAR. An average ERA+ SP would give you about 2.0 WAR so he'd be worth about $10MM a year by that metric. If you went by his WAR, it depends on how you project him, but 2.0 would be slightly optimistic.

So, let's call him (generously) a $10MM pitcher. You're willing to go $17MM. He'd need to be The Timmy of 2010/11 to justify that. Or, in metrics, an ERA+ of 120 and a WAR of 3.7 or so. That's borderline All Star type stuff. Do you expect him to get back to that level?

 

[tzill]

I'm looking at his career trend, not just the last 16 months. And last I checked, he ain't getting any younger. Any uptick this year is likely only temporary.

I have been a Giants fan for 50 years. From a fan's perspective, what Timmy has done for me can not possibly be measured in dollar terms. However, this is a business, and the Giants are now bigger than any one player. Any money overpaid to him because of what he's done in the past, versus what he will bring going forward, is money that could have gone to sign a free agent, extend an up-and-comer, used to develop our prospects, or hell, just pay down the mortgage. Maybe 2/20 is a little low, but 3/50 with option years is waaaaay too high. IMHO.

From that perspective, a solid argument could be made that he bottomed out in 2012 and is actually trending up. His peripherals all seem to support that (2012, 2013)

ERA+ 68, 76
WHIP 1.47, 1.33
BB/9 4.4, 3.5
K/BB 2.1, 2.7
WAR -1.7, -0.7

I think the fact that's he's learning how to pitch effectively at 91-91mph is more than a temporary uptick. I think he could legitimately be projected as a #3 moving forward.

I agree 2/20 is low and 3/50 is high. 3/35 seems like a better fit to me, and he's worth more to the Giants than any other team.

 

[tzill]

Timmy's WAR by year:

2007: +2.3
2008: +7.9
2009: +7.5
2010: +3.7
2011: +4.2
2012: -1.7
2013: -0.7

Tim Lincecum Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

yes, but keep in mind that WAR is a cumulative stat, and not a rate stat, so he could very well get back to positive by the end of the year.

 

[the_broom]

The Timmy we knew is long gone...and I doubt the Giants offer more than $10 million a year...maybe two years with an option...and some of that is due to his sentimental place in the fans hearts. Truth is if the Giants had even a decent #5 starter option this year Tim would already have been in the pen.

 

[calsnowskier]

The prob is that we only have 2 SPs in the fold for '14. Do you want to go in with Gaudin as our 3? Me neither.

FA SPs this year...

Kuroda
Johnson
Santana
Garza
Burnett
Arroyo
Hughes
Kazmir

You like three of those names? Can you afford the three names you like?

"The guys should open the wallets and get Price, Harvey and Fernandez. We have been selling out that park of theirs. We deserve it."

 

[Mays-Fan]

The prob is that we only have 2 SPs in the fold for '14. Do you want to go in with Gaudin as our 3? Me neither.

FA SPs this year...

Kuroda
Johnson
Santana
Garza
Burnett
Arroyo
Hughes
Kazmir

You like three of those names? Can you afford the three names you like?

"The guys should open the wallets and get Price, Harvey and Fernandez. We have been selling out that park of theirs. We deserve it."

Agreed that the pickings are slim and the options are few. And agreed that Timmy has shown signs of becoming more of a pitcher, not just a thrower of unhittable stuff (08-09). I truly hope he can continue that conversion and enjoy a few years of 4-ish ERA with 180+ innings. In that case, 2/24 or 3/36 or thereabouts would be fair.

In either case, consider ourselves fortunate we didn't give him a Cain-like contract, or worse, some were speculating on a 6/150 or 7/175 back in his heyday.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed that the pickings are slim and the options are few. And agreed that Timmy has shown signs of becoming more of a pitcher, not just a thrower of unhittable stuff (08-09). I truly hope he can continue that conversion and enjoy a few years of 4-ish ERA with 180+ innings. In that case, 2/24 or 3/36 or thereabouts would be fair.

In either case, consider ourselves fortunate we didn't give him a Cain-like contract, or worse, some were speculating on a 6/150 or 7/175 back in his heyday.

 

[moxie]

Isn't this year's qualifying offer expected to be a little more than last year's $13mil? So chances are, we probably won't get to keep him for less than that without sweetening the pot with additional years, right?

 

[calsnowskier]

Isn't this year's qualifying offer expected to be a little more than last year's $13mil? So chances are, we probably won't get to keep him for less than that without sweetening the pot with additional years, right?

Last years QO was approx 13.5M. I have seen 13 M thrown around a lot for this years QO, but I agree that I would expect it to jump to approx 14M. But I really have no idea.

I would expect that assuming Timmeh is willing to accept the QO at 14, the equivalent 3yr deal would be about 3/38 or so. The per year would drop slightly in exchange for stability.

I threw out 3/50 yesterday because I suspect SOMEONE will bid him up to that territory (Spanks, Angels, doggies, M's, Cards, Tigers, etc). I may be wrong...

 

[moxie]

Last years QO was approx 13.5M. I have seen 13 M thrown around a lot for this years QO, but I agree that I would expect it to jump to approx 14M. But I really have no idea.

I would expect that assuming Timmeh is willing to accept the QO at 14, the equivalent 3yr deal would be about 3/38 or so. The per year would drop slightly in exchange for stability.

I threw out 3/50 yesterday because I suspect SOMEONE will bid him up to that territory (Spanks, Angels, doggies, M's, Cards, Tigers, etc). I may be wrong...

3/50 isn't terrible. I'd say a little bit closer to the 3/38 median is more likely because I, too agree that SOMEone will make a play for him at that rate unless he goes to the 'pen full time. I just don't see that happening yet.