The Fancy Stats Thread

[IPostedWhat]

 

[evolver115]

Greatest Hockey Legends.com: Malkin's November A "Great One"

While there has been a lot of talk about Evgeni Malkin's lack of goal production this season, November was still a "great one" for the Pittsburgh Penguin superstar.

Evgeni Malkin's 21 assists in 15 November games were the most in any calendar month since Wayne Gretzky's 21 for the Los Angeles Kings in January, 1996.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

A Brodeur fun fact from last night, San Jose and Edmonton are the only 2 teams he has never posted a shutout against.

 

[dash]

Ryan Miller, Martin Brodeur, and Evgeni Malkin are three guys who have never been in my kitchen...

/Not a fancy stat, I know.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

the fancy stats folk are adjusting their monocles and saying "pdo ... told ya so" again



Leafs!

 

[puckhead]

Chris Tanev is now over 88 mins of 4-on-5 icetime this season.
Vancouver's goal differential in those 88 mins? +1.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

Mason Raymonds shot chart ... 25 goal season on right versus this year on left

high pdo this season

 

[DragonfromTO]

Mason Raymonds shot chart ... 25 goal season on right versus this year on left

high pdo this season

His high PDO isn't being created at the offensive end though, it's all SV% driven

 

[jstewismybastardson]

His high PDO isn't being created at the offensive end though, it's all SV% driven

thats true ... lower on ice shooting% than last season with canucks

however, someone needs to show him this and tell him to go to the net if he ever wants a long term contract again

 

[DragonfromTO]

thats true ... lower on ice shooting% than last season with canucks

however, someone needs to show him this and tell him to go to the net if he ever wants a long term contract again

I suspect that it's partly a side effect of the shitty job the Leafs do as a team establishing possession, setting up and cycling in the offensive zone. A lot of those shots from in close are probably off of rebounds and passes originating from set play, and this year's Leafs are getting pretty much all of their even-strength chances off of the rush.

 

[forty_three]

Okay Stats geeks; the mother of all "playoff chances" sites...

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Updated daily and you can click on each team and see the record they need to be statistically likely to finish in certain spots.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

There’s something interesting that happens to Flames defencemen when they get paired with Smid: They get worse. Calgary gets out-shot by a 3:2 margin when Smid is on the ice, and no matter who he is paired with the partner has been better off with almost anybody else.


The following chart shows the percentage of all attempted shots taken by Calgary with a given defence pair on the ice. The break-even mark is 50 percent, with higher being better and lower being worse:

For pure puck-moving defencemen, like Mark Giordano and Dennis Wideman, the addition of Smid to their pairing hurt. In Giordano’s case – and he’s the guy most worth paying attention to since a) we know he is an exceptional defenceman and b) he’s played the most with Smid – the difference was roughly 3.5 shots out of every hundred. In other words, Calgary went from being out-shot 52-48 with Giordano and X on the ice to being out-shot 56-44 with Giordano and Smid.


For guys who aren’t puck-movers, Smid was kryptonite. We’ll ignore T.J. Brodie, since the sample size is so small, but Chris Butler and Shane O’Brien both go from being bad without Smid to being outshot 2:1 when paired with Smid.


In short: in Calgary, Smid has been worse than useless when paired with anybody other than an exceptional puck-mover, and even in the latter pairing he has drug down the results of that puck-mover.

 

[dash]

^

Thanks very much for that, jstew. I have never really liked Smid mainly for the fact that I always thought he was sneaky dirty. Nice to have some quantitative data that shows he flat out sucks.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

he is 4th in toi/game amongst leaf forwards

he has 11 points in his last 25 games (7 if you remove the 4 point game he had Dec 14th

he is Mason Raymond

he is who we thought he was ... and thank god he is on someone elses hook

 

[dash]

he is 4th in toi/game amongst leaf forwards

he has 11 points in his last 25 games (7 if you remove the 4 point game he had Dec 14th

he is Mason Raymond

he is who we thought he was ... and thank god he is on someone elses hook

At $1 million this season, though, he's a bargain. With the numbers he has put up, he'll likely be looking to at least double that salary.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

At $1 million this season, though, he's a bargain. With the numbers he has put up, he'll likely be looking to at least double that salary.

yah maybe (with the flames?) ... that kinda production with that kinda icetime

 

[dash]

yah maybe (with the flames?) ... that kinda production with that kinda icetime

Well, I think it's well documented that he was interested in signing with Calgary before the start of this season, but Feaster didn't bite. I don't think Burke (or whomever the new GM will be) will bite either.

 

[DragonfromTO]

he is 4th in toi/game amongst leaf forwards

he has 11 points in his last 25 games (7 if you remove the 4 point game he had Dec 14th

he is Mason Raymond

he is who we thought he was ... and thank god he is on someone elses hook

Still, he'd be 7th on Vancouver in 5 on 5 points per 60 minutes. Teams still dress more than 2 lines, right?

 

[dash]

I haven't looked, but Kadri's production per TOI can't look all that great (and he's making a lot more than Raymond).

 

[jstewismybastardson]

I haven't looked, but Kadri's production per TOI can't look all that great (and he's making a lot more than Raymond).

because he has to spend all that time playing with raymond