The buy low theory for FAs & draft picks

[NinerSickness]

So does everyone know what I mean by "buy low" when it comes to FAs & draft picks? I look at prospects like stocks. You don't necessarilt go for the one whose stock is the highest; the strategy should be to go for a player whose stock will be higher than when you sign / draftt him. Obviously that's impossible for the #1 overall pick or if Peyton Manning is a FA.

Example:

Remember when Carl Nicks got arrested before the draft? He slipped to the 5th round. His "stock" took a huge hit. I was railing on people who lowered his stock because I thought it was a B.S. arrest and a non-issue. The Saints bought low and the investment paid off big time. The reason why it worked is because the perception of his value dropped more than his actual value did (which was not at all).

Another way to "buy low" is to go after a guy who ended the year on an injury (Konz? Did he play against Oregon?). Again the Saints did this with Drew Brees. He already had a career year & showed he can be a franchsie guy; but his injury caused his stock to plummet. These cases have more to do with luck than srategy. It's more or less a gamble...

My point is that one has to evaluate a player like Desean Jackson as a stock. I think the perception of his value has gone down more than his actual value has. I also think relatively poor QB play / injuries to Vick caused his perceived stock to drop too. Right now he's viewed as a quitter, a baby and a spoiled pain in the ass who just wants to get paid. This hurts the size of his next contract. However he's healthy (my biggest concern with him before the draft was staying healthy) he's getting out of his early 20's (and people's stupidity usually peaks long before then), and he's probably the quickest WR in the entire league who causes match up problems for defenses. He can be a #1 receiver. He's not a Fitz or Calivin, but he's a #1. The value of a true #1 receiver is ENORMOUS now. It may have even surpassed the value of a franchise LT. This is why he's near the top of my FA wish list for the offseason.

Another guy to keep in mind, IMO, is Marcus Forston. He left school early, and he probably should have gone back. He missed most of the year with an injury, but he's not lacking in talent. I'm keeping my eye on him...

 

[NinerSickness]

By the way I could've sworn I started a "FA wish list" thread a while back & would've posted this on it; but I couldn't find the one of which I was thinking.

 

[EKmane]

Another option could be to trade for Denarius Moore since the Raiders might gut the team. I see Moore as a 1a. Crabtree has shown that he can be every bit the #1 wr that we drafted these past several weeks. The Raiders want picks for sure and I value Moore right behind where I would have Blackmon. If they would take a 2nd then we need to hop on that, I would give up our late 1st for him if they wouldn't take a 2nd, honestly.

 

[numone9er]

I'm not so sure Desean's stock is going to drop that much. You think he's going to get paid less than before his injury? If it's between him and Bowe, then i go with Bowe, but it's not like Desean is going to take a decrease in pay.

 

[Flyingiguana]

desean jackson is an airhead. someone is going to overpay him anyways

 

[NinerSickness]

desean jackson is an airhead. someone is going to overpay him anyways

Randy Moss wasn't exactly Einstein either.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Randy Moss wasn't exactly Einstein either.

ya but moss didn't do the stupid things on the field that jackson always does.

 

[tallglassofwater007]

In a way Gore was the same thing. He had the injuries but he was a first round talent.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

We have had some success buying low in the draft over the past couple years. Bowman, Brown, and Boone all fell because of alleged off-field concerns. Only in Boone's case did I feel they were really legit, and he seems to have really turned things around on that front. In keeping with the trend, any guys who look promising whose names begin with B? We should definitely go after them.

Didn't work as well in FA with Edwards, though Rogers was certainly a "buy low" situation of sorts.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

This thread screams the value Pats got w/ Mallet

 

[dredinis21]

The problem with the whole buy low idea is that eventually you run into a knucklehead(s) like PacMan or Chris Henry, where you end up drafting them and REALLY wishing you hadn't. Secondly, I couldn't help but notice that Tall brought up Gore, which was an injury concern, but he is the outlier to this convo. The rest of the players mentioned all did stupid shit in college which warranted their draft status. With Goodell cracking down on teams drafting knuckleheads, teams are far less willing to part with high draft picks for players with question marks. I would be FAR more willing to part with a draft choice that clearly has above average talent then a FA that has above average talent. My thinking is that we ALL have done some pretty stupid shit in college so I can excuse some of what happens. But for guys like DeSean, Santonio Holmes, or Albert Haynesworth, guys who have been in the league for a minute and pull these bullshit prima donna acts, those are the guys that I hope the Niners avoid. I have faith in Harbaugh getting rookies to fall in line. Having guys like DeSean on our team make me uncomfortable, especially considering the great chemistry the Niners currently have.

 

[deep9er]

The problem with the whole buy low idea is that eventually you run into a knucklehead(s) like PacMan or Chris Henry, where you end up drafting them and REALLY wishing you hadn't. Secondly, I couldn't help but notice that Tall brought up Gore, which was an injury concern, but he is the outlier to this convo. The rest of the players mentioned all did stupid shit in college which warranted their draft status. With Goodell cracking down on teams drafting knuckleheads, teams are far less willing to part with high draft picks for players with question marks. I would be FAR more willing to part with a draft choice that clearly has above average talent then a FA that has above average talent. My thinking is that we ALL have done some pretty stupid shit in college so I can excuse some of what happens. But for guys like DeSean, Santonio Holmes, or Albert Haynesworth, guys who have been in the league for a minute and pull these bullshit prima donna acts, those are the guys that I hope the Niners avoid. I have faith in Harbaugh getting rookies to fall in line. Having guys like DeSean on our team make me uncomfortable, especially considering the great chemistry the Niners currently have.

good point.

 

[NinerSickness]

Having guys like DeSean on our team make me uncomfortable, especially considering the great chemistry the Niners currently have.

2 things: Does his talent out-weigh that factor? Also is Crabtree much better in that respect?

Braylon was a great character guy to have, but he wasn't any good.

 

[freaak]

Looking Ahead to Free Agency

 

[EKmane]

Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal are from two guys that I would like us to choose. They both have reliable hands and can be deep threats. Also I think both of these ufa's will come at a good price.

Drop Percentage Study (Part One) | ProFootballFocus.com
http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/...desean-jackson-led-the-nfl-in-drop-percentage
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/

 

[NinerSickness]

Robert Meachem? He has Drew Brees & hasn't developed into a true #1 guy. And Royal is nowehere near a #1. I'd pass.

The Niners need a real #1 guy IMO.

Bowe will get the tag IMO, and Wallace is a RFA. Vincent Jackson's a possibility, but he's even worse character-wise than Desean.

Fuller from A&M seems like a guy who has the potential but hasn't put it together yet (2nd or 3rd round).

 

[dredinis21]

2 things: Does his talent out-weigh that factor? Also is Crabtree much better in that respect?

Braylon was a great character guy to have, but he wasn't any good.

Sick, there are two problems with your counter. First, you are taking absolutes whereas I was using specifics. In no case should talent outweigh knuckle headedness because in football, it affects the ENTIRE team. So NO, DeSean IMO should not be signed. Second, I disagree with your Braylon quote of good character guy (he got cut for, according to Maiocco, pouting about his role in the offense) but assuming it's true, it's not like you only have two choices...good character/horrible play vs. bad character/great play. Guys with good character and work ethic that are effective on the field are around. The problem is that people get so enamored with certain skill sets that knuckle headed individuals carry that may help a team and severely discount the warts as almost non-existent. DeSean is going to ask for the moon in contract negotiations and if he went about it like Forte did, I wouldn't hesitate to give it to him. But when he starts pulling that prima donna shit, he plays himself out of that contract situation if it's my team. Case in point, ask the Jets about how Santonio is working out for them. There is a reason why the Steelers traded him for a can of Copenhagen and a spittoon and the Jets are just now realizing it.

 

[EKmane]

Robert Meachem? He has Drew Brees & hasn't developed into a true #1 guy. And Royal is nowehere near a #1. I'd pass.

The Niners need a real #1 guy IMO.

Bowe will get the tag IMO, and Wallace is a RFA. Vincent Jackson's a possibility, but he's even worse character-wise than Desean.

Fuller from A&M seems like a guy who has the potential but hasn't put it together yet (2nd or 3rd round).

Crabtree has shown towards the end of the season that he has what it takes to be a #1 guy. Meachem has Brees, so what, he can catch the ball. He's also a deep threat that will come at a good price. Eddie Royal is also a guy that would fit our wco very well. He gets yac, plus he has some of the best hands in the league. To much emphasis on this so called true #1 wr. The type of offense we run all we need is guys that can hang on to the ball, as well as run after the catch. Crabtree has got better after a rough start and these two guys fit the mold perfectly.

Football | NFL | Leaders - Pass Dropped - washingtonpost.com

As for Crabtree's 7 drops this season, I bet he's had 0 in the last half of the season.

 

[MW49ers5]

Crabtree has shown towards the end of the season that he has what it takes to be a #1 guy. Meachem has Brees, so what, he can catch the ball. He's also a deep threat that will come at a good price. Eddie Royal is also a guy that would fit our wco very well. He gets yac, plus he has some of the best hands in the league. To much emphasis on this so called true #1 wr. The type of offense we run all we need is guys that can hang on to the ball, as well as run after the catch. Crabtree has got better after a rough start and these two guys fit the mold perfectly.

Precisely...

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

I would be fine with Brandon lloyd again. But i bet he goes to the Pats with mcdaniels.