Teams with no Super Bowl win: Who gets one next?

[iknowftbll]

The Atlanta Falcons fell short of pulling a minor upset over the Patriots and fall to 0-2 in the Super Bowl. When they had the ball on the 23 and ~3:50 to go I figured they'd run it a few times and kick a FG to make it a 31-20 game with probably around 3 minutes remaining. They were snapping the ball with 17 seconds on the clock, throwing the ball, taking sacks and getting flagged for holding when they should have been playing smart ball and taking the necessary steps to deliver their franchise its first SB win. Instead they allowed a stunning comeback. And let's be clear: the Pats did what they had to do. They got lucky the Falcons went into "bone head" mode on that series but they did what they had to do and...well, you all saw it too.

So instead of 1-1 the Falcons drop to 0-2 and remain among those teams who've not yet won a SB. So here's my question: Of the 13 teams that have not won a Super Bowl, which has the greatest chance of winning one in the next few years.

For reference, here are the teams and a short assessment:

Buffalo Bills: 0-4. I don't see the Bills as close. They're a perennial 8-8 team at best and haven't made the playoffs in years. Every couple of years they fire their coach (or he resigns) and have to start over. I don't see them adding on to the win column anytime soon with the way they do business. The good news is they won't be adding one to the loss column either!

Minnesota Vikings: 0-4. The Vikings are probably closer than the Bills, and have a solid defense. This past season was a weird one for them. On the heels of an 11-5 effort and injury riddled off season the Vikings defied their setbacks en route to a 5-0 start but finished 8-8. Their defense was still pretty good and getting some pieces back from injury will help, but I don't think too many consider this team a contender right now.

Atlanta Falcons: 0-2. They have a young defense that can grow into a pretty dominant unit, but it's hard to see this team rebounding from a loss like this. They've lost their OC but have a qualified replacement on hand, provided they can keep him away from the sauce! I don't see the Falcons returning to the Super Bowl in 2017 but another year for that defense to develop, and considering the pieces they have on offense, they may look like a contender in 2018.

Carolina Panthers: 0-2. Very similar to the Falcons, just a year ahead. They have all the pieces on both sides of the ball, just seemed to be demoralized after that Super Bowl loss to the Broncos. This was a disappointing season for the Panthers but they have a lot of talent and may well be right back in the mix this coming season.

Cincinnati Bengals: 0-2. The Bengals had a pair of Super Bowl appearances, both losses to the 49ers, in the 1980s. Before they can talk about adding a third Super Bowl appearance they need to get a playoff win! Under Marvin Lewis the Bengals are 0-7 in the playoffs, including 5 straight seasons of reaching the playoffs and going one-n-done. In that division, ruled with a rod of iron by the Steelers and to a lesser extent the Ravens, I don't expect the Bengals to be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl anytime soon.

Philadelphia Eagles: 0-2. They have a new HC coming off his first season with the team and a young QB. They weren't awful this year either and while improvement year to year in the NFL isn't linear, it's not unreasonable to expect the Eagles to be better next year. Still they are playing ball in a pretty tough division and in 2017 they play the AFC West, which was pretty stout this past season. This team may be one to watch, just not in 2017.

Arizona Cardinals: 0-1. This team has a really tight window with Carson Palmer not as young as he was last year. After a 13-3 run the Cardinals were a disappointment in 2016 but make no mistake, this is a solid roster capable of making a playoff run in 2017. They also have a pretty good coach, but the clock is ticking. It may be now or never for the Cards. (Well, that may be a bit dramatic. Maybe "Now or not for several more years" would be a better way of putting it.

Tennessee Titans: 0-1. Here's a team to keep an eye on. They may not be the next big contender out the gate, but they may be one 2-3 seasons out. It wouldn't surprise me to see them have a good regular season in 2017 and get everyone's hopes up only to fall flat on their faces in the playoffs, learn some hard lessons and return better for it in the subsequent years.

Los Angeles Chargers: 0-1. The Chargers are a feisty team, and one of the better last places teams in the league. But that doesn't make them contenders. They had a brief run a few years ago where they were among the league's better "also rans" but never could get past the AFCCG. I don't see them returning to the playoffs anytime soon, much less reaching the Super Bowl.

Cleveland Browns: 0-0. Not even close. Let's just move along, folks. Nothing to see here.

Houston Texans: 0-0. The Texans have been around since just 2002 so not reaching the Super Bowl yet isn't really that big a knock on them. They play in a division where 9-7 was good enough to win it in 2 straight seasons, so the Texans have to like their chances of at least getting back to the playoffs. But even a great defense wasn't good enough to overcome such an inept offense this past season. The Texans are going to need to get a lot better on offense if they think they're reaching the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-0. Like the Browns, I just don't have a lot to say about this team. They fired their HC, their QB is always hyped up before the season but never delivers, and an otherwise talented roster never seems to be able to put it together. They are a fairly impressive upstart in their early days, but now they just suck.

Detroit Lions: 0-0. The Lions round off the list of those teams that not only haven't won a Super Bowl, but haven't reached it yet. This is a team that hasn't won a post season game since the 1950s and even with a bevy of talented players cycling through the past few years doesn't seem to be able to consistently put winning seasons together. If you're looking for a candidate to win its first SB in the next few years, you may want to turn back at this point.

So are any of these teams contenders in 2017? Are any of them talented rosters that can be contenders in the next few seasons? What says the class?

 

[cdumler7]

If I had to pick one I would go with the Titans. Up and coming QB, good cap situation, easier division to get them to the playoffs, great OL and running game to make sure they can control the clock and keep games a little lower scoring if need be. Just need a few more pieces on defense and maybe a #1 WR and they should be pretty set.

 

[iknowftbll]

The Titans are my AFC pick because of the same reasons you mention. Up and coming team, but there's still some traffic in front of them in the AFC so they're going to have to really elbow their way through some conference power brokers to make this a reality.

In the NFC I am inclined to go with one of the Panthers or Falcons. Perhaps that's recency bias. But the Panthers are just a season removed from a 15-1 season and SB run. They got the letdown out of their system in 2016 and it wouldn't surprise me if they came back loaded for bear in 2017. The same concept applies to the Falcons: I expect them to be decent but not necessarily a contender this year. But that defense may be a pretty good unit in 2018 and Matt Ryan and that offense will still have enough juice to be a force.

 

[cdumler7]

The Titans are my AFC pick because of the same reasons you mention. Up and coming team, but there's still some traffic in front of them in the AFC so they're going to have to really elbow their way through some conference power brokers to make this a reality.

In the NFC I am inclined to go with one of the Panthers or Falcons. Perhaps that's recency bias. But the Panthers are just a season removed from a 15-1 season and SB run. They got the letdown out of their system in 2016 and it wouldn't surprise me if they came back loaded for bear in 2017. The same concept applies to the Falcons: I expect them to be decent but not necessarily a contender this year. But that defense may be a pretty good unit in 2018 and Matt Ryan and that offense will still have enough juice to be a force.

Yeah the Titans haven't arrived quite yet. Still need a couple more pieces for sure. They have a lot of cap space though because of having such a cheap QB position so they could go crazy and really load up big time. The defense needs a lot of help so I could see them spend big on that side of the ball then use the draft to add some weapons on offense as this is a very good draft for that. Really though for me why I like them so much is just that power running game with 2 RB's just going crazy. Most teams are built to stop the pass these days so when they encounter a power running team sometimes it just becomes quite the challenge.

As for the NFC yeah have to agree with you on the 2 possible teams. I do expect a bounce back season for the Panthers and actually think they will win the NFC South. They again are another team with a very good cap situation, still plenty of talent that just needs to heal up some, and then go get a few missing pieces in FA and the draft.

The Falcons to me are such a huge question mark moving forward. Lost both coordinators right after a Super Bowl run so have to see how the new guys hold up. Young pieces on defense that have shown promise but can they continue to grow? How does the offense respond to a possible new system/coaching staff? Quinn has shown great promise as a coach so far but how does he get this team excited for next season? Just seems the Super Bowl loser really does struggle to stay on top the next season many times.

 

[iknowftbll]

Yeah the Titans haven't arrived quite yet. Still need a couple more pieces for sure. They have a lot of cap space though because of having such a cheap QB position so they could go crazy and really load up big time. The defense needs a lot of help so I could see them spend big on that side of the ball then use the draft to add some weapons on offense as this is a very good draft for that. Really though for me why I like them so much is just that power running game with 2 RB's just going crazy. Most teams are built to stop the pass these days so when they encounter a power running team sometimes it just becomes quite the challenge.

As for the NFC yeah have to agree with you on the 2 possible teams. I do expect a bounce back season for the Panthers and actually think they will win the NFC South. They again are another team with a very good cap situation, still plenty of talent that just needs to heal up some, and then go get a few missing pieces in FA and the draft.

The Falcons to me are such a huge question mark moving forward. Lost both coordinators right after a Super Bowl run so have to see how the new guys hold up. Young pieces on defense that have shown promise but can they continue to grow? How does the offense respond to a possible new system/coaching staff? Quinn has shown great promise as a coach so far but how does he get this team excited for next season? Just seems the Super Bowl loser really does struggle to stay on top the next season many times.

The Titans on defense aren't awful though. They were 2nd against the run for example. Now part of that may be because they were easily exploited against the pass (30th) but that can be fixed literally in a single off season. If they can keep that run defense in the top-10 and get that pass defense from 30th to 18-20th or so, my guess is they can win the AFC South. Even now they look like the best balanced team in the division. The Texans have a championship caliber defense but their offense was even worse than ours last year and that's saying something! The Colts are a one man show again.

It would not surprise me to see the Titans have a spectacular season this year. Something like last year's Cowboys: go as insanely good as 13-3, maybe even 14-2 and lock in the #1 seed only to get beat by a more experienced playoff team in the divisional round. It's just a hunch.

 

[CEH]

I would say Carolina super bowl hangover but talented group

 

[Draft Crazy]

If we are talking best chance for next year Ill go with the obvious choice of the Falcons.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The Atlanta Falcons I kind of think blew their best and greatest shot to win a SB this year. Shanahan is gone, their defense and OL was remarkably healthy as a whole this year. Julio wasn't absent for long stretches, and Ryan kept some of his more puzzling decisions to minimum compared to the previous year. Witch coaching upheaval I am not really too hot on their chances unless they have another stupendous draft. Not convinced their FO is up to it.

Bills: Lot of pieces but they don't really work in concert with each other. The dysfunction starts up top and I don't think it'll be rectified really right away. Not even a blip on the radar for me.

Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater's career is in question, and Sam Bradford is currently the QB. With a major rebuild of the offense on the horizon in an OL weak draft, this team probably has as uncertain a contending future as any team really in the NFL right now. With Bradford's health history, there's no way I trust this team to win a SB next among the ringless teams. Not a fan of their GM really either. If they got a good roll of the dice, maybe things get weird.

Panthers: Probably the sexiest pick for me, I am just not enamored with their WR's or offensive talent in general like many are. Kelvin Benjamin just doesn't move the needle for me, ditto with Funchess. Oh, and then there's Tedd Ginn to dress it up. A revamped secondary would still make this team the top bet for me to win a SB amongst the ringless teams.

Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton is probably best described as a force multiplier; his production strongly correlates with the offensive talent around him. When it was great, his numbers were great. When it's not? Well, it looks pretty ugly. The window imo is closed for the Bengals in the near future with Dalton unless he improves- and makes players around him better, not just preventing the nuclear option.

Eagles: Wentz honestly doesn't impress me so far and needs a really big overhaul or his career is going to have a pretty short grace period. Needs a revamped set of skill positions across the board as well. If Wentz pans out mechanically this isn't a bad pick though, but increasingly that seems like a big if. A lot of those interceptions just weren't very accurately thrown footballs. Jim Schwartz might be the Kyle Shanahan equivalent on defense. If Pederson is Dan Quinn in this analogy or worse, well, good luck.

Cardinals: Great roster for the most part. Needs a tweak here and there on the OL, but there's a lot to like overall. The other shoe seems to have dropped on Palmer and the offense- a new QB might be needed to take this team to a SB Victory. If I wasn't so skeptical of Palmer I'd like this team more than the Panthers.

Titans: I'd probably put these guys 2nd behind the Panthers. QB, OL, and RB are checks and the defense is mostly in need of secondary. With money to spend and major draft assets, this could quickly morph into the AFC South's hegemon; a vacuum that has been left in perpetuity since the house of cards that was the Luck Colts abdicated it. Iffy on Mularkey- I don't think he can consistently outcoach any of the frequent playoff teams on the AFC Side; and outtalenting them is a "good luck" kind of proposition.

Chargers: Crummy overall roster, bad ownership, QB whom's 2nd halves are increasingly alarming and is in his twilight. In a division with 3 fairly well run franchises, with one of them having a pretty young franchise QB in Carr. Nope, nope, and nope. Better luck next decade. Anything could happen but this is a team heading nowhere on the football field, similar to the Bills. Another good draft may just mean they get the grand prize of being a last place 6 win team. 1-5 vs the division is pretty telling. They're outgunned, they're outcoached, and lack direction. Pretty deadly in a sport which makes the 1 and 2 seeds inordinately valuable.

Cleveland Browns: Very enthusiastic about their FO, obvious problem being with picking them is, ahem, they're at the very bottom of the league, have no clear QBotF, and the defense is in worse shape even after a very nice get with Collins.

Houston Texans: Any organization that can so badly misevaluate Osweiler's tenture in Denver to the tune of 72M doesn't deserve any credit in the near term, period. The roster may be nice, but a "no confidence" vote for the FO here is in order to fix the QB situation.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Pretty pliable in their outcomes. The roster is talented even if unmolded in my opinion. I don't think Bortles is going to be the guy who can lead them to the SB is the problem. Darnold and Rosen maybe? Takes a lot of unearned faith in the FO to think about picking them anytime soon.

Detroit Lions: Don't like Caldwell when he's put up against other playoff coaches. Roster is being propped up by some good QB play (which paradoxically can be attributed to Caldwell, Cooter, etc) and it showed in Qwest, but this is probably a team that's 2-3 years away from being a legit SB threat barring some really outstanding and clairvoyant signings.

Of the teams I'd semi-subjectively define as contenders (teams with preseason chances of 5% or better) I'd give Carolina, the Titans, Cardinals, and Falcons the top shots at it. Vikings could re-enter the conversation.