State of the AFC West

[iknowftbll]

Week 10 is wrapping up and at this point in the season it’s hard to look at any of the AFC West teams as serious contenders. First the standings:

Chiefs: 6-4
Raiders: 5-4
Chargers: 4-6
Broncos: 3-6

Plenty can happen between now and the end of the season, but it’s hard to picture the Chiefs, even with that offense, getting through their first playoff game. And at this point you can’t rule out the possibility the Raiders overtake them for the division title. They have defensive issues of their own, especially against the pass.

The Chargers are still good enough to upset some teams and bad enough to lose 3 or 4 of their remaining games.

As for the Broncos they’ve dug themselves a pretty deep hole, sleep walking through 2 very important games against division rivals. They’ve also been incredibly unlucky with the way they’ve lost 3 of their games, with the Bears loss being an outright travesty with the way the officials allowed that timeout to be called. Still, even if the Broncos win all 3 of those games by blocking those FGs we still have a pretty anemic offense. It still would be nice to be 6-3 instead of 3-6. Even 5-4, had the refs not aided the Bears with a post game FG and the Jags with 15 yards courtesy a ticky-tac penalty. But that wouldn’t solve the offensive issues.

Now on that note, maybe the QB change will. The offense looked like a competent unit under Allen, though nobody was going to think it was the 2012-2014 Broncos out there. But it was really encouraging to see a QB move around and extend plays instead of sit there and wait to be blasted for a sack. Sometimes fit of scheme is more important than experience.

My guess is the Broncos manage another 2 or 3 wins. They’re good enough to pull a couple upsets. They’re also good enough to hope for a Tebow-like run into the AFC West title this year, but not good enough to actually expect it.

I just hope they get Lock out there and taking snaps in this season. It’s a transitional year and I’ve said it a few times now, it could pay dividends going forward.

 

[SpiritOf77]

Our remaining games are:

- @ Minnesota
- @ Buffalo
- Chargers
- @ Houston
- @ KC
- Lions

At Minnesota is going to very tough .. and while I feel Buffalo has been a tad overrated due to an easy early season schedule, traveling to Buffalo for a second straight road game won't be easy ..

I see these two games as losses ..

Coming back home vs the Bolts is one of two possible win that I see .. Could this be the game where Lock gets the start ?? … I just hope that we don't wait until a meaningless finale vs the Lions to put Lock in there ..

Sure, games at Houston and KC would be tough for a rookie getting his first starts, but we absolutely need to get Lock some reps and real game action ..

Nobody "tanks" and gives anything less than 100%, but we are in a win-win situation by playing Lock : if he is able to be the QB in games in which we grind out wins, that is fantastic .. If we lose, he gets experience and we get him some OL help and some better positioning in the draft ..

Trying to eek out 6 wins is utter pointless, esp if we keep Allen in there ..

I see 4-12 or 5-11, and hope for less ..

That said, I see a huge step forward in terms of wins next year with Vic having a full offseason to evaluate and draft and acquire what he feels is needed …. Hopefully Callahan and Bradley Chubb return full strength next season, we've got a stud LB in AJ, make Justin Simmons a priority -- we've got a load of options on the defensive side of the ball ..

What some of the FA CBs have done this year has been extremely encouraging as far as what Vic and Co. can do at the corner position … As much as I like Chris Harris, at this point in his career, I don't think resigning him is a priority / must ( although I would be happy if he was a Bronco for life )

I really think that we could flip our record next season if a few good moves are made and Lock shows at least something … 5-11 could be 11-5 in a year's time, but it is up to the decision making of Elway and the powers that be to make the right moves ..

 

[iknowftbll]

I actually agree, I certainly can’t see the Broncos winning both the Vikings and Bills games. 1-1 there at best. They draw the Chargers at home but the Chargers will be coming off a bye, somewhat mitigating the HFA for the Broncos. That’s definitely not a sure win. Collectively I see that stretch as a 1-2 finish. I actually like their chances of swiping one from either the Texans or Chiefs. 1-1/2-3. I really believe they can beat both the Lions and Raiders to close out the year, but maybe I’m being too optimistic so I’ll say 1-1 there for 3-4 down the stretch and 6-10 overall.

I also think starting Lock is not the same as tanking. It’s smart football. Tanking is when you’re deliberately playing for draft picks but starting Lock is legitimately playing for your future by at least evaluating what you have in your QB.

 

[nflbronco]

I actually agree, I certainly can’t see the Broncos winning both the Vikings and Bills games. 1-1 there at best. They draw the Chargers at home but the Chargers will be coming off a bye, somewhat mitigating the HFA for the Broncos. That’s definitely not a sure win. Collectively I see that stretch as a 1-2 finish. I actually like their chances of swiping one from either the Texans or Chiefs. 1-1/2-3. I really believe they can beat both the Lions and Raiders to close out the year, but maybe I’m being too optimistic so I’ll say 1-1 there for 3-4 down the stretch and 6-10 overall.

I also think starting Lock is not the same as tanking. It’s smart football. Tanking is when you’re deliberately playing for draft picks but starting Lock is legitimately playing for your future by at least evaluating what you have in your QB.

6-10 could be bad for draft order due to sos

 

[iknowftbll]

6-10 could be bad for draft order due to sos

It’s certainly not optimal but you don’t play for draft order. Besides I would rather they prove me wrong and blast the hell out of everything in their path en route to a 10-6 finish. Draft order doesn’t even factor into it for me.

 

[SpiritOf77]

As things stand right now, we have the #9 pick .. Cleveland and Tampa Bay have the 7 and 8 picks and both teams are also 3-6 ...

Conversely, we've got the Steelers ( pick belongs to Miami ) at 5-4 and they are picking at 22 ...

So the difference in two wins could mean the difference in a Top 10 pick and a pick in the 20s ..

This is significant because it obviously effects each round

I am all for winning if Lock is at QB … but I just don't see it as a good plan to keep Allen in at QB ..

 

[iknowftbll]

^ but if Allen is winning you cant bench him for an unproven rookie. That’s why this next week @ Vikings is so important. A loss could result in a move to Lock, a win keeps the team’s season alive. Especially since the Chiefs haven’t run away with the division the way everyone thought they would.

 

[LGM]

Outside shot at 6 wins this year.
Mostly likely 4-5, but going winless the rest of the way wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[Clayton]

Week 10 is wrapping up and at this point in the season it’s hard to look at any of the AFC West teams as serious contenders. First the standings:

Chiefs: 6-4
Raiders: 5-4
Chargers: 4-6
Broncos: 3-6

Plenty can happen between now and the end of the season, but it’s hard to picture the Chiefs, even with that offense, getting through their first playoff game. And at this point you can’t rule out the possibility the Raiders overtake them for the division title. They have defensive issues of their own, especially against the pass.

I don't think its hard to picture the Chiefs winning a playoff game. There is the formula and if a team get 160+ rushing yards then they'll almost certainly beat the Chiefs in the playoffs but the Chiefs have also had okay games against the run in 3 of their past 4 outings.

I do think its very difficult imagining them beating 2 of the top 3 AFC teams to get to the Super Bowl. They are 2-0 against Lamar Jackson but both games were in KC and despite those wins I think thats KCs worst matchup in the NFL. Texans are probably the 2nd worst matchup and while the score of this years game might have looked close....the Texans really looked like the vastly better team for 3 quarters. That doesn't even get into Brady and the Patriots...although for what the Chiefs do I actually think they're not as scary as they were last year when Gronk was able to beat up man coverage. I think all 3 of those teams can do the same thing to Spagnuolo's defense that teams have been doing to Sutton's defenses in the playoffs so...yeah. Same team, different year. I think the Chiefs have some upside to make some noise but they'd have to get healthy enough to play physical and I'm not sure that this KC team is physical enough to get things done even if they are healthy. That team from week 1 is scary, though. Just not sure that offense will ever get back to that point.

Raiders look like an 8-8 team but they've been pretty clutch so far this year. 5-1 in one score games so far. That means they haven't blown anyone out but also have been blown out three times. I don't think thats a very good look for a potential playoff team.

So its just a bad division this year but I do think either the Chiefs or Raiders will get to 10 wins.

 

[iknowftbll]

@Clayton the chiefs are still the odds on favorites to win the division. No question about it. How far they get in the post season is the question. Same goes for the Raiders if they somehow pull ahead of the Chiefs. And of course we can’t rule out the possibility of both reaching the playoffs with one filling a wild card.

As for the Raiders, I don’t read too deeply into the trend you mentioned. Not within a given season. I certainly don’t expect it to be sustainable for multiple seasons but if they go 10-6 with a negative point differential (teams have done it, it’s rare but it does happen) they’re still 10-6. All that matters at that point is the game in front of them.

With that said I don’t consider them to be serious contenders to go deep into the post season.

I think the Ravens are the strongest team in the conference. The Patriots cannot be written off either simply because they’ll have the inside track to the #1 seed, which they currently already hold by 2 games.

This is always an exciting point in the season. A lot of bubble teams are still conceivably in the race and certain key matchups down the stretch loom large.

 

[58crash]

^ but if Allen is winning you cant bench him for an unproven rookie. That’s why this next week @ Vikings is so important. A loss could result in a move to Lock, a win keeps the team’s season alive. Especially since the Chiefs haven’t run away with the division the way everyone thought they would.

I said the chiefs would lose more games not because I thought they suck but because of injuries and NE showed how to slow them down.

 

[58crash]

But I also thought us at 14-2 so