Shields by the numbers

[msgkings322]

Spoiler alert: probably not worth the contract required (and why the Giants signed Peavy instead)

James Shields is a risky investment - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

 

[msgkings322]

Here's another reason the Giants look like they are waiting to make their push in 2016 (when they have Lincecum, Hudson, Scutaro $ to spend), from the article:

But there's another reason not to sign him. Next year three pitchers even better than Shields will hit free agency: David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Plus, Zack Greinke may also opt out of his deal with the Dodgers.

 

[msgkings322]

From same article, on the Giants and Shields:

Jim Bowden rates the Giants as the team most likely to sign Shields. That makes some sense, as Matt Cain is a question mark coming back from elbow surgery and Shields would bump Tim Lincecum from the rotation. But wouldn't it make even more sense for the Giants to wait a year and go after one of those young aces, when Lincecum's $18 million comes off the books? Do you want to build a rotation around Madison Bumgarner, a guy coming off an injury and three starters (Shields, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy) in their mid-to-late 30s?

Sure, Shields could help in 2015. But it's not as if the Giants are going to have trouble selling tickets if they don't sign him. They have a little goodwill to play with after winning the World Series. They have a strong team, with or without Shields, and play in a weak division. I'd pass on Shields, go with Lincecum and/or Yusmeiro Petit in the fifth slot, then go all-in next year on Price or Zimmermann.


Not sure I agree that the division is weak but the rest of this is exactly what I've been posting since the offseason started...

 

[jingo]

From same article, on the Giants and Shields:

Jim Bowden rates the Giants as the team most likely to sign Shields. That makes some sense, as Matt Cain is a question mark coming back from elbow surgery and Shields would bump Tim Lincecum from the rotation. But wouldn't it make even more sense for the Giants to wait a year and go after one of those young aces, when Lincecum's $18 million comes off the books? Do you want to build a rotation around Madison Bumgarner, a guy coming off an injury and three starters (Shields, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy) in their mid-to-late 30s?

Sure, Shields could help in 2015. But it's not as if the Giants are going to have trouble selling tickets if they don't sign him. They have a little goodwill to play with after winning the World Series. They have a strong team, with or without Shields, and play in a weak division. I'd pass on Shields, go with Lincecum and/or Yusmeiro Petit in the fifth slot, then go all-in next year on Price or Zimmermann.


Not sure I agree that the division is weak but the rest of this is exactly what I've been posting since the offseason started...

If Shields is available to the Giants, then the Giants will sign him. While looking at who will be available in 2016 you also have to consider who "might" be available to the Giants in 2016. Going all in might mean you are the second highest bidder (or the first loser) and end up with nothing to show for waiting. And if that happens, the argument will be "why didn't they sign Shields in 2014/15 when they had the chance.

Go for the win, even if it means you are only the wild card. Occasionally, that works just fine.

Happy and safe New Year to all.

 

[Montalban]

Here's another reason the Giants look like they are waiting to make their push in 2016 (when they have Lincecum, Hudson, Scutaro $ to spend), from the article:

But there's another reason not to sign him. Next year three pitchers even better than Shields will hit free agency: David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Plus, Zack Greinke may also opt out of his deal with the Dodgers.

I'd rather have any of those four over Shields

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd rather have any of those four over Shields

But they don't want to come here...

 

[Montalban]

But they don't want to come here...

why would they be any different?

 

[tzill]

Spoiler alert: probably not worth the contract required (and why the Giants signed Peavy instead)

James Shields is a risky investment - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Very interesting take by Schoenfeld. He makes a major assumption: that foregoing Shields this year leads to an ability to get Price or Zim next year. I wouldn't make that leap. Shields and Zim are likely both going to get Scherzer money AND cost a draft pick. That is, they will be TWICE as expensive as Shields. Also, he glosses over the amount of an upgrade Shields would almost certainly be over Broken Timmy. That's the real benefit IMO -- not just getting a low 3's ERA innings eater but also dumping a 5's ERA broken pitcher out of the rotation. Huge upgrade IMO. Of course, it's a big chunk of Panda sized change. Glad I'm not SabeySabes.

Pitching and defense...that's what we should be built around.

 

[tzill]

Here's another reason the Giants look like they are waiting to make their push in 2016 (when they have Lincecum, Hudson, Scutaro $ to spend), from the article:

But there's another reason not to sign him. Next year three pitchers even better than Shields will hit free agency: David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Plus, Zack Greinke may also opt out of his deal with the Dodgers.

There is no guarantee Cueto will be avialable, as the Reds are likely to deal him to a team that will extend him. Also, there is no guarantee Greinke will opt out.

I wouldn't put my eggs in the 2016 SP FA basket.

 

[tzill]

From same article, on the Giants and Shields:

Jim Bowden rates the Giants as the team most likely to sign Shields. That makes some sense, as Matt Cain is a question mark coming back from elbow surgery and Shields would bump Tim Lincecum from the rotation. But wouldn't it make even more sense for the Giants to wait a year and go after one of those young aces, when Lincecum's $18 million comes off the books? Do you want to build a rotation around Madison Bumgarner, a guy coming off an injury and three starters (Shields, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy) in their mid-to-late 30s?

Sure, Shields could help in 2015. But it's not as if the Giants are going to have trouble selling tickets if they don't sign him. They have a little goodwill to play with after winning the World Series. They have a strong team, with or without Shields, and play in a weak division. I'd pass on Shields, go with Lincecum and/or Yusmeiro Petit in the fifth slot, then go all-in next year on Price or Zimmermann.


Not sure I agree that the division is weak but the rest of this is exactly what I've been posting since the offseason started...

Schoenfeld is generally a very good writer; I'm surprised he is so ignorant of all the moves the doyers, fraudres, and worms have made. Then again, he does write for Bos/NY SPN. Maybe he goes to bed early.

 

[tzill]

If Shields is available to the Giants, then the Giants will sign him. While looking at who will be available in 2016 you also have to consider who "might" be available to the Giants in 2016. Going all in might mean you are the second highest bidder (or the first loser) and end up with nothing to show for waiting. And if that happens, the argument will be "why didn't they sign Shields in 2014/15 when they had the chance.

Go for the win, even if it means you are only the wild card. Occasionally, that works just fine.

Happy and safe New Year to all.

Great post.

 

[tzill]

I'd rather have any of those four over Shields

And I'd rather have any of the four of Mila Kunis, Scarlett Johannsen, Emmy Rosum, or Natalie Portman than my incredible wife.

Jeebus you are a consistently useless poster.

 

[tzill]

But they don't want to come here...

Channeling your inner GP I see....


PWND!

 

[calsnowskier]

Channeling your inner GP I see....


PWND!

All your fault. You're forgetting the writing styles for each of your alts. You gotta be more on your game.

 

[tzill]

All your fault. You're forgetting the writing styles for each of your alts. You gotta be more on your game.

En Fuego!!

 

[SF11704]

If Shields is available to the Giants, then the Giants will sign him. While looking at who will be available in 2016 you also have to consider who "might" be available to the Giants in 2016. Going all in might mean you are the second highest bidder (or the first loser) and end up with nothing to show for waiting. And if that happens, the argument will be "why didn't they sign Shields in 2014/15 when they had the chance.

Go for the win, even if it means you are only the wild card. Occasionally, that works just fine.

Happy and safe New Year to all.

Great post. Sort of follows what my feelings are at the moment. Very difficult to talk about 2016 when 2015 is still very much an SP mystery to me. Other than MadBum I just don't have a clear picture of what else we actually have. I loved Peavy last year. Thought he was a lock for a 2015 position then the playoff happened. Sure hope what we saw in the season is what we purchased for 24M of 2 years. Cain is a question mark. Never sure about surgery or it's affects. Would be great if he returns at 80-100%. Just not sure how probable that is. Timmy has been 'less than Timmy' for quite a few years now. I just don't see him turning the corner. I think that ship has sailed. Huddy is another question mark. Which one will we see. Early season Huddy or late season Huddy. In the end it doesn't matter because I think he's not here in 2016. Vogs is serviceable but not what you want to build on going forward. If we get an opportunity to nab Shields now I'd take the gamble. I think he's a solid performer and would fit in nicely for any additional acquisitions we may make in 2016. I don't believe that you should trade away your future for a 'now' moment but I also think that you don't let opportunities slip through your fingers either.

 

[Epic Voidfield]

Great post. Sort of follows what my feelings are at the moment. Very difficult to talk about 2016 when 2015 is still very much an SP mystery to me. Other than MadBum I just don't have a clear picture of what else we actually have. I loved Peavy last year. Thought he was a lock for a 2015 position then the playoff happened. Sure hope what we saw in the season is what we purchased for 24M of 2 years. Cain is a question mark. Never sure about surgery or it's affects. Would be great if he returns at 80-100%. Just not sure how probable that is. Timmy has been 'less than Timmy' for quite a few years now. I just don't see him turning the corner. I think that ship has sailed. Huddy is another question mark. Which one will we see. Early season Huddy or late season Huddy. In the end it doesn't matter because I think he's not here in 2016. Vogs is serviceable but not what you want to build on going forward. If we get an opportunity to nab Shields now I'd take the gamble. I think he's a solid performer and would fit in nicely for any additional acquisitions we may make in 2016. I don't believe that you should trade away your future for a 'now' moment but I also think that you don't let opportunities slip through your fingers either.

I'm sorta on the same boat but probably looking at the whole thing half full, if that's one way to look at it. Some pitchers just have that switch during the playoffs, and remember Madbum did get lit up at times during the season. With that said, I think Cain will be okay, but Lincecum is done in my book. I personally think he stuck around a year too long, but it's whatever at this point with him. Voggs I think still has some in the tank, and I'll take Huddy when healthy with the best of them. The pitching looks very Sabean-esque "old" squad, but I'm glad that the bats are young, eager, and (not Panda) hungry.

 

[Stokes1931]

Clubhouse vet Shields brings more than numbers | MLB.com

 

[Montalban]

Clubhouse vet Shields brings more than numbers | MLB.com

The giants don't need someone to come in and show them how to win. They already got that part down.

 

[Stokes1931]

The giants don't need someone to come in and show them how to win. They already got that part down.

Did you read the whole article?

For weeks, plenty of people thought Shields was headed to the Giants. He seemed like their kind of guy. They don't need anyone to help teach them how to win, but his attitude and approach seems to reflect that of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, etc.