Scary thing about my draft

[Brees#1]

Okay I didn't proof read so did not notice the smilies the first time around. That happened because of the : @ and : D

 

[TKOSpikes]

[QUOTE="Brees#1, post: 8725500, member Okay you know what I'm gonna go ahead and get the QB stats.

Starting with Flacco, Taylor, Cutler, and Dalton.

Flacco(10 games)
Games with 20+Oak(2), Cin(3), Cle(5), @SF(6), SD(8), Jac(his biggest game)(10)
Games 17-19:
Games under 17Pit(4), @Ari(7), StL(11)

So he has some interesting stats. But against short rest and the tougher defenses he does not do enough. He had 11, 14, and 13 in those games. Looking at his schedule, it looks favorable. Fantasy playoffs though are @NE, Phi, and @Pit, the latter being championship week. So maybe

Taylor(14 games)
Games with 30+(he's a little more in demand):NE(2), @Mia(3), @KC(12), Hou(13)
Games with 20+Ten(5), @Was(15)
Games 17-19:Ind(1), Mia(9), @Phi(14), NYJ(17)
Games under 17:NYG(4), @NYJ(10), @NE(worst performance)(11), Dal(16)

Now he had some great games, but only 6 over 20. That's less than half of his total games. Also, the under 17 were rightful road games at NE, NYJ, Dal had a good secondary, and NYG has always shown to shut down a flawed offense especially when on the road. His best games were when playing in games where he had to pass and the secondaries were not that threatening. Miami, KC, Was were those teams. Tennessee could stop the run last year forcing him to be productive. However, he struggled in December when weather got colder only posting one 20+ game. His schedule next year consists of road games at Seattle, LA, Oakland, NE, NYJ, Mia Baltimore, and Cincinatti. Where only the latter three he could do well against. His home games are against Arizona, SF, Jacksonville, NE, NYJ, Mia, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland where in those games he's in trouble against Arizona, NYJ(because of short rest), and perhaps Pittsburgh. If Miami is like last year's game he won't be throwing much. Week 2, 3, 4, 5 are all tough starts and that's enough reason to stay away especially since I could see him getting dropped. Also, with a tougher schedule comes being exposed and gives other teams film on how to stop the bills. And usually when a qb gets out of rhythym is when injury occurs. If you look at the schedule this isn't Buffalo's year and they are contention for a top three pick.

Cutler(15 games)
Games 20+:Oak(4), @KC(5), Min(8), @SD(9), @StL(his best game)(10), Was(14)
Games 17-19Det(6), @Min(15),
Games under 17:GB(1), Arizona(2), Den(11), @GB(12), SF(his worst game)(13), @TB(16), Det(17)

Wait he improved, right? Look at all the under 17 games lol. Not only that look at where those games are, three in division. Two others under 20. SF and TB? Yeah he gets White to throw to, but Cutler has not been that kind of qb to excel with more targets. He just does not do enough against teams other qbs do more against. And his schedule starts out @Houston(just no), Phi, @Dal(not sure), Detroit, and @Ind. @GB on three days rest like last year, bye, @TB, @NYG. Do not like those odds. Ten is gonna be interesting, and SF again. The playoffs may look a little more appealing if he can take advantage of Detroit regressing. But too many average to below average games before then.

Dalton(12.25 games)
Games 30+Bal(3), Sea(5),
Games 20+Oak(1), SD(2), @Buf(6), Cle(9), @Ari(11), StL(12), @Cle(13)
Games under 20:KC(4), @Pit(8), Hou(technically second worst game)(10), Pit(worst game but got hurt)(14)

The under 20 games, three of them were under even 17. He's lost Jones also and might be without Eiffert early. Therefore, he could have problems especially @NYJ, @Pit, Den to start. Fantasy playoffs consist of @Cleveland, Pittsburgh and @Houston on five days rest. I don't think I can afford a slow start given my draft plans. His best bets are Mia, @Dal, Cle, Was, Buf, @Bal, Phi, and @Cle.

So out of this group I like Flacco.[/QUOTE]

I really don't know how to respond. You call out scenarios that happened last year, or multiple years ago, and act like they are how it is. Like three of a kind beats two pair every time.

So I'll just respond about the player I watched every snap (one in person).

Taylor, "only" six of 14 games over 20.... but five of those six were over 30! Week one was his first career start. Wasn't great, but he played well... and managed 17 points because of his rushing ability (40 yards). He followed that up with back to back 30 burgers (one of which was Miami in a blowout, so not sure why "if like last year he won't be throwing much). Then he travels to the Giants and gets whooped. It happens. But he rebounded the next week in Tennessee... even though he sprained his knee.... so he misses the next two games... followed by a bye. After watching EJ Manuel blow any chance of the team's success, he fought to come back after the bye. Three straight divisional games (two of which he already played), with a bum knee... yeah he struggled (17, 13, 9). Then three of the next four weeks were over 30! With a 19 in the middle. Pretty good playoff QB for those that used him.

Then, week 16, it was cold and rainy. Dallas were depleted and couldn't get a first down. Literally. So yeah. Not much throwing there... not to mention they were just put out of the playoff race the week before.

And a respectable 18 to finish it off.... knocking the Jets out of the playoffs, btw!!

Beyond the numbers. He got better each week. As Sammy got healthier, his (accurate) deep throws got more plentiful. He is not just a heads down, scrambling QB.

So my take on Taylor? Absolutely has the highest ceiling of ANY QB being taken after the top seven. Yes, he has to prove it wasn't a fluke, but he is basically Russell Wilson before the second half of last year (stat wise, not real NFL wins/superbowls)

Flaccos of the world need at least 1250 more passing yards than Taylor to make up for the 500 rushing yards they will never see.


How's that for a biased, blind, Bills backing, believer!

 

[Brees#1]

Well Buffalo has three straight home games in December and during the fantasy playoffs. Whose to say it won't be raining then?

Taylor is just not the kind of qb I take. Also, I don't like drafting guys after just 1 year success. And I have already said this consistency matters to me over upside. I would rather have 8 20-25 games than 5 games over 30. I used to be in the position in the past of struggling without a elite qb.

That might be the flawed part of my game but I would rather be safe than sorry. TKO I know you love the bills but I'm sorry, they are in for a shock this year. That schedule is hell and it's gonna take a toll on the QB.

 

[averagejoe]

Well Buffalo has three straight home games in December and during the fantasy playoffs. Whose to say it won't be raining then?

Brees, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt. But I give up.

You're being ridiculous, buddy.

1) Three home games for Buffalo in December should be a good thing! Not a negative.
2) You're worried about weather? And how it will affect your draft picks? Wow!

2a) Weather in Buffalo is historically around mid-40's to mid-50's in December. Very little rain.​

I'm also attaching links for Moon Phases in December for Buffalo. Could affect player behavior.
Also attaching a NASA chart link for possible asteroid collisions with Earth.
I'd attach a Zombie mud run link but it looks it shouldn't impact Buffalo in December.

 

[Brees#1]

Are you serious?

 

[Brees#1]

The raining was a joke. You can make it sound like there's only one qb to draft late.

 

[broncosmitty]

The raining was a joke. You can make it sound like there's only one qb to draft late.

I won't be taking Taylor either.

But who he plays against and where he plays his games at any point in the season aren't a factor in that. Who is coach, is.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Well Buffalo has three straight home games in December and during the fantasy playoffs. Whose to say it won't be raining then?

Taylor is just not the kind of qb I take. Also, I don't like drafting guys after just 1 year success. And I have already said this consistency matters to me over upside. I would rather have 8 20-25 games than 5 games over 30. I used to be in the position in the past of struggling without a elite qb.

That might be the flawed part of my game but I would rather be safe than sorry. TKO I know you love the bills but I'm sorry, they are in for a shock this year. That schedule is hell and it's gonna take a toll on the QB.

If Flacco ever had 8, 20-25 point games in a season, I'd be surprised then not excited.

Five games over 30, a 23, 19, 18 is better than 20-25 eight times.

You're missing my point. If YOU don't want to draft Taylor, fine. My rant wasn't about them winning the super bowl. This is FANTASY. Just like a 5 win team can have a great RB, a good fantasy QB doesn't need 10 wins.

claiming Flacco or Tannehill or Cutler are more "consistent"... is simply not true... other than consistently mediocre.

And yes, maybe they'll play in the rain again... but probably not after just being eliminated from the playoff picture, against a team missing their starting QB, WR, DE, LB, CB and S. Where Mike Gillislie runs all over them.

 

[TKOSpikes]

The raining was a joke. You can make it sound like there's only one qb to draft late.

We make it sound like that?????? You just listed 20 names who YOU aren't touching???!!!!???!!!

 

[Brees#1]

I won't be taking Taylor either.

But who he plays against and where he plays his games at any point in the season aren't a factor in that. Who is coach, is.

So if Rex was not the coach you would play him on a Monday night in Seattle?

 

[Brees#1]

We make it sound like that?????? You just listed 20 names who YOU aren't touching???!!!!???!!!

I backtracked on Flacco. But that's because he can be gotten near the last round. However, those 20 guys all have weaknesses each. Let's take Taylor out of this equation. Who of the guys I mentioned would you want to draft?

 

[SteelersPride]

just draft rodgers, no weakness

 

[TKOSpikes]

I backtracked on Flacco. But that's because he can be gotten near the last round. However, those 20 guys all have weaknesses each. Let's take Taylor out of this equation. Who of the guys I mentioned would you want to draft?

Everybody has weaknesses. There are about 15 QB I woukd be fine with as my starter... the lower you get, the more I'd prefer two.

 

[SteelersPride]

Everybody has weaknesses. There are about 15 QB I woukd be fine with as my starter... the lower you get, the more I'd prefer two.

u need to fine the perfect guy

 

[TREFF]

Does anyone remember the good old days where the weirdest thing we had to debate about was Foot thinking the Chris Johnson shaking his head on the sidelines was some sort of sign that he was going to have a good/bad day? ?

Now we've got whatever it is you'd categorize this as..and its repetitive. .one that thinks too many options is harder than no options..what's next?

 

[SteelersPride]

Does anyone remember the good old days where the weirdest thing we had to debate about was Foot thinking the Chris Johnson shaking his head on the sidelines was some sort of sign that he was going to have a good/bad day? ?

Now we've got whatever it is you'd categorize this as..and its repetitive. .one that thinks too many options is harder than no options..what's next?

im speechless

 

[broncosmitty]

So if Rex was not the coach you would play him on a Monday night in Seattle?

Idk. Rex is his coach, so I really don't pay much attention.

But I don't draft players looking at matchups down the road. Maybe I try to avoid having erybody on the same bye, that's about it.

 

[TREFF]

Idk. Rex is his coach, so I really don't pay much attention.

But I don't draft players looking at matchups down the road. Maybe I try to avoid having erybody on the same bye, that's about it.

Ya know the one and only thing I've ever looked at matchups for during the draft? When taking a backup QB. Who's got the best potential matchup on my starter's bye? After that, and even counting that, predicting anything based on a matchup ten weeks into the future, based on info formed 12 months beforehand, is just futile

 

[SteelersPride]

i cant believe this debate is still going..........

can we debate the quality of the field on the schedule? what about the number of indoor vs outdoor games? How about the altitude in the games they will play, definitely will make a difference in what kicker i take....

When drafting sometimes i like to draft guys with the numbers 1-9. If they going into double digits, it means theres now TWO numbers on their jersey, rendering the jersey heavier, therefore they will run slower.....

 

[Brees#1]

My plan is Romo and Flacco but I might just get a qb in round 4.

Let me point out in the two throwaway leagues I did last year I actually drafted how this board would have liked me to. But guess what that got me? A first round exit. I have to be careful here, after the first three rounds anyways ADP goes out the window.