Sagarin ELO CHESS 9/29/2013

[occupant]

Sagarin ELO CHESS 9/29/2013

1 Oregon
2 Baylor
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma
5 UCLA
6 Florida St.
7 Stanford
8 LSU
9 Texas A&M
10 Georgia
11 Washington
12 Clemson
13 Louisville
14 Ohio St.
15 Texas Tech
16 Mississippi
17 Miami (FL)
18 South Carolina
19 Maryland
20 Florida
21 Wisconsin
22 Arizona St
23 Oklahoma St.
24 Virginia Tech
25 Missouri
26 North Dakota St
27 UCF
28 Arizona
29 TCU
30 Utah St
31 Northwestern
32 Notre Dame
33 Northern Iowa
34 Vanderbilt
35 Boise St
36 Utah
37 Auburn
38 Michigan St
39 West Virginia
40 Michigan

 

[romeo212000]

Oklahoma is not a top 5 team right now. They're barely a top 10 team.

 

[occupant]

Nobody is in my opinion.

I honestly don't think polls should be constructed until week 6.

This isn't a poll however. Nobody is voting here. This is simply one of the BCS computers.

Don't think it will even matter next year.

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

This complete trash...LOL Northern Iowa ranked33rd....ND with two losses 32nd and the team who beat them is undefeated and ranked 40th...I hope that's a typo

 

[occupant]

This complete trash...LOL Northern Iowa ranked33rd....ND with two losses 32nd and the team who beat them is undefeated and ranked 40th...I hope that's a typo

USA Today | Sports | NCAAF

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

It almost seems like his predictor and elo columns are switched.

 

[outlaw okie]

Oklahoma is not a top 5 team right now. They're barely a top 10 team.

I doubt they make top 10 in AP.

 

[occupant]

It almost seems like his predictor and elo columns are switched.

His formula weighs losses significantly. Even quality losses.

I use his ranking after about week 8 or so to help me determine how a team will fare against a quality opponent. The greater the gap in a team's PREDICTOR and ELO-CHESS, the greater the risk in picking them.

Some of the things that stand out to me in his RATING combination (just observations, no judging going on here):

- He has 9 SEC teams in his rating top 40
___ - His lowest top 40 rating SEC team is Auburn at 35

- He has 8 PAC teams in his rating top 40
___ - He has 5 PAC teams in his rating top 16.

- He has 6 B1G teams in his rating top 40
___ - His highest rating B1G team is Ohio St. at 13

- He has 5 ACC teams in his rating top 40
___ - His highest rating ACC team is Clemson at 12

- He has 4 BIG XII teams in his rating top 40
___ - He has Baylor and Oklahoma at 3 and 4 respectively

- He has 2 AAC teams in his rating top 40
___ - He has Louisville at 14, UCF at 23

 

[HuskerinBig10]

His methodology is ridiculous.

West Virginia is 3-2 and was blown out 37-0 by Maryland.

Yet, West Virginia moves up because of the win over Oklahoma State and Maryland is undefeated and unranked, even though they destroyed West Virginia. Won't matter anyway, Florida State should get rid of the Maryland mystique next week.

 

[romeo212000]

His methodology is ridiculous.

West Virginia is 3-2 and was blown out 37-0 by Maryland.

Yet, West Virginia moves up because of the win over Oklahoma State and Maryland is undefeated and unranked, even though they destroyed West Virginia. Won't matter anyway, Florida State should get rid of the Maryland mystique next week.

It's a computer, not a person.

 

[Trevler]

His methodology is ridiculous.
Won't matter anyway, Florida State should get rid of the Maryland mystique next week.

FSU will probably win, but if they play like they did against B.C., the Terps can easily pull off the upset.

 

[ckhokie]

It's a computer, not a person.

That still has Georgia over Clemson even though they played head to head.

 

[occupant]

His methodology is ridiculous.

West Virginia is 3-2 and was blown out 37-0 by Maryland.

Yet, West Virginia moves up because of the win over Oklahoma State and Maryland is undefeated and unranked, even though they destroyed West Virginia. Won't matter anyway, Florida State should get rid of the Maryland mystique next week.

Maryland is 19th in ELO-CHESS and 20th in RATING.
W. Virginia is 39th in ELO-CHESS and 57th in RATING.

 

[HuskerinBig10]

It's a computer, not a person.

It's a computer rating system with the Jeff Sagarin methodology. If you truly think this is a sentient computer system that does it all on its own, with no twiddling from Sagarin, you might need to come back to reality.

Methodology[edit]

Sagarin, like the developers of many other sports rating systems, does not divulge the exact methodology behind his system. He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, "Elo chess," is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, "Predictor," takes victory margin into account. For that system the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7-6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21-7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35-0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70-0. This characteristic has the effect of recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score.

 

[HuskerinBig10]

Maryland is 19th in ELO-CHESS and 20th in RATING.
W. Virginia is 39th in ELO-CHESS and 57th in RATING.

Missed the Maryland rating. My mouth ain't big enough for my foot.

 

[occupant]

That still has Georgia over Clemson even though they played head to head.

Welcome to the SEC dominated landscape of CFB where previous season(s) results and perceptions are used in determining who is where.

*sigh*

 

[TigerBait1971]

It has LSU over UGA and Clemson.

 

[tech_iceman]

LSU ahead of Georgia?

Clemson at 12?

 

[Bamabino]

He has Bama#1, not 3.LMAO@ Daffy Ducks' 104 SoS.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

He has Bama#1, not 3.LMAO@ Daffy Ducks' 104 SoS.

No. The ELO-Chess pretty definitively lists Bama as #3.