Rangers/Angels - All-Star Break Edition

[Nightcrawler]

I'm liking the prospect of picking #1 overall.

However, I think most people are like me and don't see a contending team next season. First of all, pitching is a HUGE question mark. There's Yu and then a bunch of question marks. Maybe Holland returns and performs, maybe he doesn't. Maybe Perez returns healthy by Spring, maybe not. Maybe they sign a top guy like Scherzer, maybe not. And then there's the bullpen. Who will close games? Will Feliz, Ogando, Ross, and/or Scheppers ever return to being solid bullpen guys? Maybe.

Also, will Profar return healthy and be the great player everyone had such high hopes for? Maybe. Will Fielder return 100% and find his power stroke again? Maybe.

I'm not saying those things can't or won't happen. But that's betting on a LOT of maybe turning into a LOT of yes to label them contenders.

I'm glad that some people on the board are talking about this. I've been saying that we need to lose as many games as possible without losing 100 games because a good draft pick is better than picking late in the first round. A high draft pick isn't a " sure thing" like the NBA, but if your scouting team is good, you will most likely get a top of the line player. You gotta screw up pretty badly to not get value out of a top 3 pick and that's an encouraging thought.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Well, if you look at first round picks in past years, you have more good ones then bad ones. Price, upton, strasburg, harper, cole, mauer, arod, adrian gonz... and then you got guys that the VAST majority of experts and fans are fairly certain will be successful, like appel, correa, and aiken. Scouting has gotten so much better that by the time that the first overall pick comes, they manage to narrow it down to about 2, maybe 3 players IN THE ENTIRE WORLD, that are the best option. No matter who it is, it will be a good player. It will be a guy that the baseball world says "this is a franchise changing player. A multiple all star. A future star." The rest comes to development and the prospect themself.

You might know more about this than I, after all you do have a scout friend and like I said, I have never been all that into the MLB draft. Anyway, just to check, I went to look at the first overall picks and this one way you can look at it.

If you assume that it takes 4-5 years for a first round pick to work his way to the bigs then we could go back to say 2010 and maybe look at a 21 year span from 1990-2010, this is what you would find.

~10% of them retired without ever playing a game in the big leagues
~53% of them have been an All-Star at some point
~37% decent to never heard of types

If you use being an All Star as a yardstick for living up to first overall pick potential for this period of time. This would mean about 53% of the time the first overall pick has lived up to their potential and 47% of the time they haven't. So to me, that's pretty much a coin flip or a crapshoot.

Now lets say if you look at the last 11 years, so 2000-2010:

~9% of them retired without ever playing a game in the big leagues
~55% of them have been an All-Star at some point
~36% decent to never heard of types

So the numbers are still pretty close to the same but have improved a bit. 5% above chance is not bad but its still a crapshoot IMO.

I was actually shocked to find out that the Rangers have only had one first overall pick in their history, at least since moving to Texas and that was in 1973. We did have one other one in 1969 when were were the senators though.

This is what I used as resource for all of this:
List of first overall Major League Baseball draft picks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Nightcrawler]

You might know more about this than I, after all you do have a scout friend and like I said, I have never been all that into the MLB draft. Anyway, just to check, I actually just went to look at the first overall picks and this one way you can look at it.

If you assume that it takes 4-5 years for a first round pick to work his way to the bigs then we could go back to say 2010 and maybe look at a 21 year span from 1990-2010, this is what you would find.

~10% of them retired without ever playing a game in the big leagues
~53% of them have been an All-Star at some point
~37% decent to never heard of types

If you use being an All Star as a yardstick for living up to first overall pick potential for this period of time. This would mean about 53% of the time the first overall pick has lived up to their potential and 47% of the time they haven't. So to me, that's pretty much a coin flip or a crapshoot.

Now lets say if you look at the last 11 years, so 2000-2010:

~9% of them retired without ever playing a game in the big leagues
~55% of them have been an All-Star at some point
~36% decent to never heard of types

So the numbers are still pretty close to the same but have improved a bit. 5% above chance is not bad but its still a crapshoot IMO.

I was actually shocked to find out that the Rangers have only had one first overall pick in their history, at least since moving to Texas and that was in 1973. We did have one other one in 1969 when were were the senators though.

This is what I used as resource for all of this:
List of first overall Major League Baseball draft picks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Our Front office is smarter than most......... I'd put the chances above 60% for us.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

So assuming they will get the #1 pick...

2015 MLB Mock Draft: Early Predictions for Next Year's Class | Bleacher Report

Would you go with the bat in Cameron? Or the arm in Ferrell/Kirby?

 

[PDay8810]

So assuming they will get the #1 pick...

2015 MLB Mock Draft: Early Predictions for Next Year's Class | Bleacher Report

Would you go with the bat in Cameron? Or the arm in Ferrell/Kirby?

Sure wouldn't mind Ferrell....has a bulldog mentality too.

 

[jta4437]

You might know more about this than I, after all you do have a scout friend and like I said, I have never been all that into the MLB draft. Anyway, just to check, I went to look at the first overall picks and this one way you can look at it.

If you assume that it takes 4-5 years for a first round pick to work his way to the bigs then we could go back to say 2010 and maybe look at a 21 year span from 1990-2010, this is what you would find.

~10% of them retired without ever playing a game in the big leagues
~53% of them have been an All-Star at some point
~37% decent to never heard of types

If you use being an All Star as a yardstick for living up to first overall pick potential for this period of time. This would mean about 53% of the time the first overall pick has lived up to their potential and 47% of the time they haven't. So to me, that's pretty much a coin flip or a crapshoot.

Now lets say if you look at the last 11 years, so 2000-2010:

~9% of them retired without ever playing a game in the big leagues
~55% of them have been an All-Star at some point
~36% decent to never heard of types

So the numbers are still pretty close to the same but have improved a bit. 5% above chance is not bad but its still a crapshoot IMO.

I was actually shocked to find out that the Rangers have only had one first overall pick in their history, at least since moving to Texas and that was in 1973. We did have one other one in 1969 when were were the senators though.

This is what I used as resource for all of this:
List of first overall Major League Baseball draft picks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Decent to never heard of's? we're going to lump all those guys together?

Plenty of decent to solid players that just bc they never made an all-star team get lumped with the never heard ofs?

So Eric Chavez or Kirk Gibson would be lumped in with the never heard of's b/c they never made an all-star team? Seems flawed

 

[TheRangerDude]

Decent to never heard of's? we're going to lump all those guys together?

Plenty of decent to solid players that just bc they never made an all-star team get lumped with the never heard ofs?

So Eric Chavez or Kirk Gibson would be lumped in with the never heard of's b/c they never made an all-star team? Seems flawed

Just going with the data I had. You can take as much or as little from it as you like. I mentioned this would only apply if you are willing to use an all star pick as a yardstick for measuring ones living up to first overall pick potential. It seems fair to me. Its not like Chavez or Gibson are world beaters or anything. Nothing near the potential of the all star types you would hope for as an overall first pick.

 

[Bmurph]

Gonna have to be willing to overpay in FA for awhile I guess? JD has not had much luck in signing MLB FA pitching in the past, even with a team that was winning lots of games. Cant imagine a sudden rush of top tier FA pitchers wanting to sign in Texas with the team going to have a historically bad season

 

[PDay8810]

ooooh. PDAY won't like that

I'd also like to add that even with my like of EA's game, I'm as disappointed as anyone after 120M commitment. He has the perfect role model in AB and all Elvis has picked up is the BS playing around part. Elvis's biggest problem seems to be his own head, thinking he has arrived. I don't think that has anything to do with not playing winter ball or sore arms in February. It's his overall game and lack of attention to detail since April that bums me out and makes him expendable in the right deal. His maturity between the lines isn't what it should be, how much value that fetches in return this offseason remains to be seen.

RW will be on the hot seat coming outta the gate in 15. I think it's fair to fire him should the team continue to play this poorly for the remaining season and play poorly the first 2 months of the 15 season. I think who plays shortstop in 2015 will be determined by what happens the remaining part of 2014. AB should clue Elvis in that he hasn't arrived.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

I'd also like to add that even with my like of EA's game, I'm as disappointed as anyone after 120M commitment. He has the perfect role model in AB and all Elvis has picked up is the BS playing around part. Elvis's biggest problem seems to be his own head, thinking he has arrived. I don't think that has anything to do with not playing winter ball or sore arms in February. It's his overall game and lack of attention to detail since April that bums me out and makes him expendable in the right deal. His maturity between the lines isn't what it should be, how much value that fetches in return this offseason remains to be seen.

RW will be on the hot seat coming outta the gate in 15. I think it's fair to fire him should the team continue to play this poorly for the remaining season and play poorly the first 2 months of the 15 season. I think who plays shortstop in 2015 will be determined by what happens the remaining part of 2014. AB should clue Elvis in that he hasn't arrived.

I agree - sounds fair to me.

 

[DT LUNA]

I'd also like to add that even with my like of EA's game, I'm as disappointed as anyone after 120M commitment. He has the perfect role model in AB and all Elvis has picked up is the BS playing around part. Elvis's biggest problem seems to be his own head, thinking he has arrived. I don't think that has anything to do with not playing winter ball or sore arms in February. It's his overall game and lack of attention to detail since April that bums me out and makes him expendable in the right deal. His maturity between the lines isn't what it should be, how much value that fetches in return this offseason remains to be seen.

RW will be on the hot seat coming outta the gate in 15. I think it's fair to fire him should the team continue to play this poorly for the remaining season and play poorly the first 2 months of the 15 season. I think who plays shortstop in 2015 will be determined by what happens the remaining part of 2014. AB should clue Elvis in that he hasn't arrived.

Well stated and agree completely

 

[terpsfball09]

ME PERSONALLY, I take a pitcher with the first pick unless its mike trout/harper/machado. I think you build your team and win in the playoffs with pitching.

Plus, for the past 10 years, this team has proven that it struggles to get pitching through free agency. 0 big name pitchers have signed with us over the winter. Therefore, we have to draft or trade for pitching (or international sign, like Yu).

 

[terpsfball09]

So assuming they will get the #1 pick...

2015 MLB Mock Draft: Early Predictions for Next Year's Class | Bleacher Report

Would you go with the bat in Cameron? Or the arm in Ferrell/Kirby?

Keep in mind that these mock drafts are very, very flawed. High school pitchers who are potential #1's don't really emerge until the summer/fall coming into their senior year when they bulk up and grow into their bodies. This whole list will change when scouts realize which high school pitchers/players in general have developed.

 

[darrylgann]

I'd also like to add that even with my like of EA's game, I'm as disappointed as anyone after 120M commitment. He has the perfect role model in AB and all Elvis has picked up is the BS playing around part. Elvis's biggest problem seems to be his own head, thinking he has arrived. I don't think that has anything to do with not playing winter ball or sore arms in February. It's his overall game and lack of attention to detail since April that bums me out and makes him expendable in the right deal. His maturity between the lines isn't what it should be, how much value that fetches in return this offseason remains to be seen.

RW will be on the hot seat coming outta the gate in 15. I think it's fair to fire him should the team continue to play this poorly for the remaining season and play poorly the first 2 months of the 15 season. I think who plays shortstop in 2015 will be determined by what happens the remaining part of 2014. AB should clue Elvis in that he hasn't arrived.

I would think and thought then that the trading of Kinsler would send a signal that no one is 'safe' there. Sadly that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[darrylgann]

Keep in mind that these mock drafts are very, very flawed. High school pitchers who are potential #1's don't really emerge until the summer/fall coming into their senior year when they bulk up and grow into their bodies. This whole list will change when scouts realize which high school pitchers/players in general have developed.

Still going to keep an eye on that TCU pitcher.

 

[terpsfball09]

If there is an Aiken/Kolek in the board next year, you take them over any college pitcher.

 

[darrylgann]

Evan Grant ‏@Evan_P_Grant 5m
Geovany Soto was busted last night for misdemeanor marijuana possession.

Stefan Stevenson ‏@StevensonFWST 10m
Injured #Rangers catcher Geovany Soto was arrested for marijuana possession in Grapevine Thursday night.

Dang dude!

 

[terpsfball09]

he thought that maybe if he was high he'd find this season funny. except he realized that no amount of weed could make this funny, so he turned himself in. true story.

 

[darrylgann]

Gerry Fraley ‏@gfraley 14s
Soto also tested positive for marijuana in tests before World Baseball Classic in 2009.

 

[Duane1952]

Evan Grant ‏@Evan_P_Grant 5m
Geovany Soto was busted last night for misdemeanor marijuana possession.

Stefan Stevenson ‏@StevensonFWST 10m
Injured #Rangers catcher Geovany Soto was arrested for marijuana possession in Grapevine Thursday night.

Dang dude!

I guessed he needed to play better than Cheerios.