QO Discussions

[calsnowskier]

The QO is a powerful weapon. The Giants used it masterfully this past year when dealing with Pagan (IMHO) if my theory that they "bought" a home-town discount with him by NOT offering the QO is accurate (I have not seen it written anywhere, so it may be pure fiction). On the flip-side, Louse was screwed by the QO this past year as his market disappeared because the cost of a 1st rounder. Players want to avoid the QO, I think.

The Giants have basically two players in the QO discussion this coming season, Pence and Lincecum.

I think the strategy the G's will take with each of them determines what they will do. If they want the player, they will not offer a QO; if they do not want the player, they will offer a QO.

I think they may try to pull an Angel Pagan with Pence (they will get a 10-15% discount on the best offer he can find on the open market). I think they will offer a QO to Timmeh, but try to sign him to a 2-year deal for 30M.

 

[Kendal]

The QO is a powerful weapon. The Giants used it masterfully this past year when dealing with Pagan (IMHO) if my theory that they "bought" a home-town discount with him by NOT offering the QO is accurate (I have not seen it written anywhere, so it may be pure fiction). On the flip-side, Louse was screwed by the QO this past year as his market disappeared because the cost of a 1st rounder. Players want to avoid the QO, I think.

The Giants have basically two players in the QO discussion this coming season, Pence and Lincecum.

I think the strategy the G's will take with each of them determines what they will do. If they want the player, they will not offer a QO; if they do not want the player, they will offer a QO.

I think they may try to pull an Angel Pagan with Pence (they will get a 10-15% discount on the best offer he can find on the open market). I think they will offer a QO to Timmeh, but try to sign him to a 2-year deal for 30M.

I'm not so sure it will go like that. I honestly don't know what I would do with Lincecum, he looks good now, but who knows what he will do the rest of the season. If he figures it out then we are still left with the question of the rest of the staff. What if Vogelsong comes back strong and Zito plays well (which I highly doubt, take a look at his home/away splits for some laughs)? Its just too early for me on Timmy. Definitely would not offer him a long term deal though.
With Pence I think they will have to offer him the QO simply because I'm not sure we can afford to lose him, he is our best outfielder.

 

[Stokes1931]

So what would Pence fetch on the open market? Can we afford to have him for $15 million per year?

1st 87 games: .278/.323/.476/.799
2nd 87 games: .246/.283/.433/.716

Part of me would like to keep him, as he seems a solid clubhouse guy, and the cost is what it is (curse the Dogs!).

However, I would love to see more bang for the buck at that position. If we spend $15 million on Pence, who will we not spend money on?

While I admire Sabes for his dumpster dives in the past (well, Garko and RFLedee are inexcusable!), I believe the thinking needs to change a bit. The Giants are no longer a small market team. And while we cannot keep up with the Dogs' spending, and do not have that behemoth TV contract, we will need to increase payroll beyond what we have normally been comfortable with. The game has changed.

I am excited to see the development of so many home grown players: Cain, Bum, Timmeh, Stamos, Romo, Panda, Posey, etc. We need to do a much better job identifying and developing hitters, and keep on developing pitchers. It wasn't long ago that Old Mother Sabes' cupboards were bare.

Back to Pence, his performance the last month has been horrific. And I would hope that a guy with his experience and his salary would find a way (like Posey) to help carry the team. That he has not done so is a huge disappointment.

 

[calsnowskier]

I agree that he is less than a perfect fit. The prob is that we are limited to who is available on the FA market. Maybe Sabes will pull of a trade in the off-season, but you can't rely on that.

I am becoming more and more in favor of signing him up to a longish contract (4/5 years), knowing that the last couple years will be rough. You have to jump when the tide is up, regardless of the temp of the water...

 

[MarcoPolo]

Speaking of "where are you going to spend your limited salary budget", the Giants for 2014 would seem to have a LOT of money available this off-season (only $84.5M committed to 9 players, so about $55M). BUT, they are going to have to split that money between 3 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, a starting RF, a starting LF, 2 reserve OFs, 2 reserve IFs, and the backup catcher. (The reason I say "split" is because none of those positions is covered in the $55M - it could be because people are leaving as FAs, or they have option years, or it could be that they are arb-eligible and it is unknown how much they will get IF they stay). So, unfortunately, $55M really isn't all that much, when you have to spread it over so many positions.

Now some of the positions will be able to be filled cheaply in-house (like the backup catcher, IFs, OFs, and a relief pitcher or 3) but 3 starting pitchers and 2 starting OFs are going to cost a LOT of money. If Vogelsong comes back even half-way good (like an ERA at 4 or less) then they'll pick up his $6.5M option (that's cheap for a #4 FA pitcher these days). I'm hoping that the G's will be able to sign Abreu for cheap (I've been damn impressed with him). Maybe Johnny Monell will be next year's backup C. And I'm praying that Surkamp will be good enough to be the 5th starter next year. I've been rooting for him for 3-4 years now.

$55M really isn't all that much today for GOOD (not great, just good) starting players. I'm not too hot on signing Pence; I just don't think he's that good, and isn't worth $15M/per (although he'll probably get more than that). He put up his gaudy numbers in small parks. I'd offer QOs to both Timmy and Pence - I'd accept either back for just one year at ~$14M, and take the comp draft pick otherwise.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Speaking of "where are you going to spend your limited salary budget", the Giants for 2014 would seem to have a LOT of money available this off-season (only $84.5M committed to 9 players, so about $55M). BUT, they are going to have to split that money between 3 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, a starting RF, a starting LF, 2 reserve OFs, 2 reserve IFs, and the backup catcher. (The reason I say "split" is because none of those positions is covered in the $55M - it could be because people are leaving as FAs, or they have option years, or it could be that they are arb-eligible and it is unknown how much they will get IF they stay). So, unfortunately, $55M really isn't all that much, when you have to spread it over so many positions.

Now some of the positions will be able to be filled cheaply in-house (like the backup catcher, IFs, OFs, and a relief pitcher or 3) but 3 starting pitchers and 2 starting OFs are going to cost a LOT of money. If Vogelsong comes back even half-way good (like an ERA at 4 or less) then they'll pick up his $6.5M option (that's cheap for a #4 FA pitcher these days). I'm hoping that the G's will be able to sign Abreu for cheap (I've been damn impressed with him). Maybe Johnny Monell will be next year's backup C. And I'm praying that Surkamp will be good enough to be the 5th starter next year. I've been rooting for him for 3-4 years now.

$55M really isn't all that much today for GOOD (not great, just good) starting players. I'm not too hot on signing Pence; I just don't think he's that good, and isn't worth $15M/per (although he'll probably get more than that). He put up his gaudy numbers in small parks. I'd offer QOs to both Timmy and Pence - I'd accept either back for just one year at ~$14M, and take the comp draft pick otherwise.

How would you feel about Pegs/Perez in LF? Can they be any worse than Torres/Francouer

 

[calsnowskier]

How would you feel about Pegs/Perez in LF? Can they be any worse than Torres/Francouer

I think we have a lot if guys to compete for the #3 OF spot next year. Brown, Perez, Pegs, RK, Blanco just to name the leading candidates. Tanaka, Dominguez and Fenchy are outside candidates as well. So I do not think we need TWO starting OFs.

 

[tzill]

I think we have a lot if guys to compete for the #3 OF spot next year. Brown, Perez, Pegs, RK, Blanco just to name the leading candidates. Tanaka, Dominguez and Fenchy are outside candidates as well. So I do not think we need TWO starting OFs.

I agree. Kiesh is the dark horse here. I'd be surprised if he isn't on the 25 man next year.

 

[msgkings322]

I agree that he is less than a perfect fit. The prob is that we are limited to who is available on the FA market. Maybe Sabes will pull of a trade in the off-season, but you can't rely on that.

I am becoming more and more in favor of signing him up to a longish contract (4/5 years), knowing that the last couple years will be rough. You have to jump when the tide is up, regardless of the temp of the water...

Just shows how weird this year is, just 2 days ago you were posting trade Lincecum and Pence, and see what we could get for Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Scutaro. Now it's sign Pence for 5 years.

The next 10 days are going to be extremely interesting for fans.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just shows how weird this year is, just 2 days ago you were posting trade Lincecum and Pence, and see what we could get for Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Scutaro. Now it's sign Pence for 5 years.

The next 10 days are going to be extremely interesting for fans.

I am far from convinced on any path right now. The next week (heck, the next 3 days) will tell a lot. I am thinking (and Sabes basically said this himself yesterday) that if we win 2 this weekend, we are potentially buyers, but if we lose 2 we are almost certainly sellers. How big of a series is this?

If Timmeh and/or Pence are traded, I fully trust that we will be getting a haul that is greater than a #35-ish pick and Sabes feels they were not coming back at a proper price anyway.

 

[msgkings322]

I am far from convinced on any path right now. The next week (heck, the next 3 days) will tell a lot. I am thinking (and Sabes basically said this himself yesterday) that if we win 2 this weekend, we are potentially buyers, but if we lose 2 we are almost certainly sellers. How big of a series is this?

If Timmeh and/or Pence are traded, I fully trust that we will be getting a haul that is greater than a #35-ish pick and Sabes feels they were not coming back at a proper price anyway.

Exactly, it's a weird limbo where the landscape and outlook will change almost daily...

On the radio on 680 Sabean said he expected Lincecum to stay a Giant this year...obviously could be a smokescreen but he was pretty emphatic.

 

[SF11704]

Exactly, it's a weird limbo where the landscape and outlook will change almost daily...

On the radio on 680 Sabean said he expected Lincecum to stay a Giant this year...obviously could be a smokescreen but he was pretty emphatic.

The comment about the landscape is spot on! It's going to shift quite a bit over these next few days depending on what the team does. I really don't see them as sellers of anything 'of value' unless they feel we are out of the running. Just can't see trading any of our rotation if we still have a breath left to take. But that also leaves us in a very strange buying position. What in God's name would we have to offer for anything of value? Just not sure we'd have anything or anyone that would return us a top rated outfielder. Really wouldn't want to trade away the few farm chips we do have. Just don't want to do another Wheeler for Beltran type trade trying to gamble on a division crown. If we were one or two up on everyone .... than maybe the gamble would be worth it. 6.5 back is a pretty steep hill to climb ....

 

[calsnowskier]

The comment about the landscape is spot on! It's going to shift quite a bit over these next few days depending on what the team does. I really don't see them as sellers of anything 'of value' unless they feel we are out of the running. Just can't see trading any of our rotation if we still have a breath left to take. But that also leaves us in a very strange buying position. What in God's name would we have to offer for anything of value? Just not sure we'd have anything or anyone that would return us a top rated outfielder. Really wouldn't want to trade away the few farm chips we do have. Just don't want to do another Wheeler for Beltran type trade trying to gamble on a division crown. If we were one or two up on everyone .... than maybe the gamble would be worth it. 6.5 back is a pretty steep hill to climb ....

8 below is the more important number.

 

[SF11704]

8 below is the more important number.

Agree 100%. That number is the closest thing we have to a 'health check' for the team. Indicates how they have played for the 1st half. Not too well I might add. Depending on circumstances I guess you could be play .600 ball and still be 6.5 back. If I remember correctly there was one year when Detroit opened the beginning of the season with something like 40-8. Teams were 20 games behind at the break. Even if you were playing well, it didn't matter too much. Detroit's start was torrid.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I think we have a lot if guys to compete for the #3 OF spot next year. Brown, Perez, Pegs, RK, Blanco just to name the leading candidates. Tanaka, Dominguez and Fenchy are outside candidates as well. So I do not think we need TWO starting OFs.

I thought I was being clear when I said : "(none of those positions is covered in the $55M - it could be because people are leaving as FAs, or they have option years, or it could be that they are arb-eligible and it is unknown how much they will get IF they stay).

I didn't mean that they would have to go out and sign FAs to fill those slots. I meant that none of those positions is covered in the $84.5M committed to 9 players, so TWO starting outfielders are going to be given money out of the $55M remaining, no matter where we get them from (FA, already on the 25-man, minors). They will have to be offered a new contract for 2014, because they don't have one yet.

For example, if Vogelsong's option is picked up, the ~$55M available to sign players drops down to about $49M ($6.5M option with $300K buy-out already counted in the $84.5M committed to for 2014).

So yes, Blanco might be one of the 4 OFs signed (two starters, two backups).

But the Giants have (about) $55M to fill 16 positions. As I said earlier "some of the positions will be able to be filled cheaply in-house" - but I don't think all of them will be. And (IMO) the most expensive slots to fill will be the 3 starting pitchers and the two starting OFs. Not every single player, but those 5 positions added up are probably going to be over $30M in salary even if one of them is Surkamp at minimum and another is Blanco/Brown/Kieschnick. (Unless they sign Gaudin as a cheap #5.) It's quite possible the Giants will sign one FA pitcher and one FA OF (I include Pence as a FA). They also need to think about what they are going to do after 2014 when Panda, Vogey, Romo might be leaving. I don't see a true slugger on the horizon in the Giants' minors. A new slugger, starting pitcher, and closer in one year means maybe you can't sign a guy to a 4-5 year contract this coming offseason because you know you're going to have to shell out an additional $15M/yr starting the following year.

 

[calsnowskier]

My post was not meant as an argument. It was simply adding depth.

 

[tzill]

I am far from convinced on any path right now. The next week (heck, the next 3 days) will tell a lot. I am thinking (and Sabes basically said this himself yesterday) that if we win 2 this weekend, we are potentially buyers, but if we lose 2 we are almost certainly sellers. How big of a series is this?

If Timmeh and/or Pence are traded, I fully trust that we will be getting a haul that is greater than a #35-ish pick and Sabes feels they were not coming back at a proper price anyway.

Thing is, he didn't say that. He DID say that winning the division was a long shot, and that realistically the FO was going to use the rest of the year to evaluate impending FAs and their long term fit with the club.