QB Value

[ehb5]

Alright so lemme preface this by saying I swear to God I'm not trying to start some 8 page argument about Cousins with this thread. We've got time to figure out what to do with him. But I have been thinking about the position both as it pertains to Cousins and the Skins as well as the league as a whole. So that being said...

I'm curious about a couple things not because I'll necessarily disagree but because I'm curious what people think.
Let's pretend all the guys I mention are on expiring contracts.

1. What type of extension would you give Tyrod Taylor?
2. What type of extension would you give Ryan Fitzpatrick?
3. What type of extension would you give Brian Hoyer?
4. What type of extension would you give Blake Bortles?
5. What type of extension would you give Jameis Winston?
6. What type of extension would you give Carson Palmer?

And finally what would it take for you to trade Kirk Cousins if you were GM based on draft pick compensation?

 

[gkekoa]

1-3 would get three years at 5-8 mil each season. None are game changers on contending teams.

Bortles still has another season to prove he is worth a big contract.

Winston is a rookie...wouldn't even bother looking.

Palmer 5 years at 100 million...the only guarantees are the first two years in salary.

 

[Sportster 72]

First Cali posted a good article about this under "Kirk Cousin's Poor Mans Game Manager." I would also start with, they were prepared to pay Griffin $16 million so why wouldn't Cousins get the same?

Back to the article Cali posted, it breaks down Cousin's season in first 6 games and all the games since then. If I am his agent I am using that as my argument. So three games left. How Cousin's performs will determine how much he gets paid. If the team makes it to the playoffs and he plays well the next salary will increase even more. If he stinks it up then it goes down some .... BUT!!! There is always a butt he may be the premier QB free agent because there aren't any premier QB free agents.

Way, way back I brought up Trent Green and I still think of him often when I of him often when I watch Cousin's. Green sat on the bench for a couple of years. He had one good year, the Skins had just recently paid a QB a $1 million (a lot then) and were not ready to go there again for a one year wonder so he signed as a free agent with the Rams. My reason for bringing it up again, I can see this scenario playing out again. Why? I'll tell you why. Is Cousin's proven? My answer to that is no. Does he look like he could be a good QB? I see it as a good possibility. So that begs the question is SM ready to pay what Cousin's will likely get from someone who needs a QB for a guy with one year under his belt. It is going to make for an interesting off season and if he is gone possibly a down grade at the position next year.

 

[j_y19]

Value is a market driven number that is based on supply and demand and will fluctuate year to year and team to team. I have no idea what the absolute value is of these players you identify in your hypothetical situation. I can, however, give you my opinion on their relative ranking if the were all on the market.

Carson Palmer would be first. He had experience and is emerging as a leader. He has been through the battles and has come out on the other side.

Winston and Bortles would probalby come next. They have all the measurable but have much learning. Their value is all on their upside......which is not guaranteed.

Taylor would be next and similar to the two above, he is also all upside, but his size and playing style make him a greater injury risk. He also has to learn to operate in the pocket. These 2 issues make his a greater risk, thus less value.

Hoyer and Fitzpatrick are only place holders.

As for cousins, he could turn out to be a Carson Palmer or a Fitzpatrick. We don't know yet. What we do know is if the skins lose him, they have nothing to turn to other that known place holders. This will not only kill any playoff chances they might have, but could also stunt the growth of the rest of the offense in 2016 and beyond. So his value to the redskins (and any other team stuck with a place holder or failed QB) is greater than it would be for a team like the Patriots, for example. his value is also going to be inflated this year for the mere fact that the demand for promising QBs is very high and the supply of available promising QBs available is very low this coming off season.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Short of major injury or a huge downfall (ala RG3) both Bortles and Winston will get a huge contract with their next extension - that is how it works in the NFL (since good QBs are hard to find). Palmer is a given in terms of a huge contract.

IMO - Hoyer is worth next to nothing. He is proving that he is not a good for anything more than a handful of games. Taylor is still an unknown so hard to tell, and Fitzpatrick is worthy of so-so money since he appears to be pretty good on the rt team but still cannot be trusted long term.

As for trading Cousins - not worthy of discussion since it ain't happening.

 

[ehb5]

1-3 would get three years at 5-8 mil each season. None are game changers on contending teams.

Bortles still has another season to prove he is worth a big contract.

Winston is a rookie...wouldn't even bother looking.

Palmer 5 years at 100 million...the only guarantees are the first two years in salary.

I would agree with this I think. I'm not a big Bortles guy though so I think I'd put a big gap between him and Jameis and Carson would get paid. Could be the MVP.

 

[ehb5]

First Cali posted a good article about this under "Kirk Cousin's Poor Mans Game Manager." I would also start with, they were prepared to pay Griffin $16 million so why wouldn't Cousins get the same?

Back to the article Cali posted, it breaks down Cousin's season in first 6 games and all the games since then. If I am his agent I am using that as my argument. So three games left. How Cousin's performs will determine how much he gets paid. If the team makes it to the playoffs and he plays well the next salary will increase even more. If he stinks it up then it goes down some .... BUT!!! There is always a butt he may be the premier QB free agent because there aren't any premier QB free agents.

Way, way back I brought up Trent Green and I still think of him often when I of him often when I watch Cousin's. Green sat on the bench for a couple of years. He had one good year, the Skins had just recently paid a QB a $1 million (a lot then) and were not ready to go there again for a one year wonder so he signed as a free agent with the Rams. My reason for bringing it up again, I can see this scenario playing out again. Why? I'll tell you why. Is Cousin's proven? My answer to that is no. Does he look like he could be a good QB? I see it as a good possibility. So that begs the question is SM ready to pay what Cousin's will likely get from someone who needs a QB for a guy with one year under his belt. It is going to make for an interesting off season and if he is gone possibly a down grade at the position next year.

I saw I think it was Rich Tandler say he could see them passing him something like 3 years, 13-14 million per, with 3-4 million more in incentives, and the 3rd year voidable. I think that seems pretty fair.

 

[ehb5]

Value is a market driven number that is based on supply and demand and will fluctuate year to year and team to team. I have no idea what the absolute value is of these players you identify in your hypothetical situation. I can, however, give you my opinion on their relative ranking if the were all on the market.

Carson Palmer would be first. He had experience and is emerging as a leader. He has been through the battles and has come out on the other side.

Winston and Bortles would probalby come next. They have all the measurable but have much learning. Their value is all on their upside......which is not guaranteed.

Taylor would be next and similar to the two above, he is also all upside, but his size and playing style make him a greater injury risk. He also has to learn to operate in the pocket. These 2 issues make his a greater risk, thus less value.

Hoyer and Fitzpatrick are only place holders.

As for cousins, he could turn out to be a Carson Palmer or a Fitzpatrick. We don't know yet. What we do know is if the skins lose him, they have nothing to turn to other that known place holders. This will not only kill any playoff chances they might have, but could also stunt the growth of the rest of the offense in 2016 and beyond. So his value to the redskins (and any other team stuck with a place holder or failed QB) is greater than it would be for a team like the Patriots, for example. his value is also going to be inflated this year for the mere fact that the demand for promising QBs is very high and the supply of available promising QBs available is very low this coming off season.

I think this is pretty fair. Although to go back to that value thing again. Just because 17 million might be somebody's market price doesn't mean it can't be a shit contract.

I don't think a placeholder sets us back as much as you do but it is a risky move. Obviously we should at least try to bring cousins back.

 

[ehb5]

Short of major injury or a huge downfall (ala RG3) both Bortles and Winston will get a huge contract with their next extension - that is how it works in the NFL (since good QBs are hard to find). Palmer is a given in terms of a huge contract.

IMO - Hoyer is worth next to nothing. He is proving that he is not a good for anything more than a handful of games. Taylor is still an unknown so hard to tell, and Fitzpatrick is worthy of so-so money since he appears to be pretty good on the rt team but still cannot be trusted long term.

As for trading Cousins - not worthy of discussion since it ain't happening.

Hoyer has played decently at times this year. I think hoyer fitz and Bortles are the interesting ones though. Jameis and Carson would be the 2 highest paid I think and deserving so l, I was mostly throwing them in for curiositys sake since we don't get to see rookie qbs hit the open market.

 

[ehb5]

I think ignoring Hoyer (decent 1 year stopgap) jameis and Carson (not our situation at all) is fine for this. But are Taylor fitz and bortles not all somewhat similar to Cousins if they were hitting the market. Guys who have had some success but over small samples. And guys that pundits don't seem to agree on how good they actually are.

 

[Sportster 72]

At this point I would like to see some continuity. It seems we have a HC and QB that work well together. If they can get him for $8 million I am all for it. If he costs more I will understand that too. If I was the GM and it was going to be on the higher end of what we are guessing I would like to make it a 2 year contract and say "Kirk, we'll pay you but you still have to show us you deserve it." After two additional years you'll know if you want to go all in or not.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

I think ignoring Hoyer (decent 1 year stopgap) jameis and Carson (not our situation at all) is fine for this. But are Taylor fitz and bortles not all somewhat similar to Cousins if they were hitting the market. Guys who have had some success but over small samples. And guys that pundits don't seem to agree on how good they actually are.

Id see far more value on the open market in Bortles and Taylor, strictly based on projected upside......I dont watch every Skins game, but hasnt Cousins showed just about as many red flags as he has hope for the future?

 

[ehb5]

Id see far more value on the open market in Bortles and Taylor, strictly based on projected upside......I dont watch every Skins game, but hasnt Cousins showed just about as many red flags as he has hope for the future?

His first 10 or so career games were god awful. Like highest interception rate in history bad. But this year he has cut down on the picks significantly and played pretty solidly. There's good and bad with him still but right now the glaring red flags aren't really there. It's more can he continue to take steps.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

I think ignoring Hoyer (decent 1 year stopgap) jameis and Carson (not our situation at all) is fine for this. But are Taylor fitz and bortles not all somewhat similar to Cousins if they were hitting the market. Guys who have had some success but over small samples. And guys that pundits don't seem to agree on how good they actually are.

Huh? How can you label Winston as a guy deserving big money & not also apply the same tag to Bortles? He was also drafted very high & is putting up record setting #s for his team rt now. He is playing just about as good as anyone recently. I am puzzled why you don't give this guy much credit.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Id see far more value on the open market in Bortles and Taylor, strictly based on projected upside......I dont watch every Skins game, but hasnt Cousins showed just about as many red flags as he has hope for the future?

Kirk Cousins

Look at his game log for this season - they tell a big part of the story (of course not the whole story since they don't account for things like inaccurate throws). By far his biggest issue going into this season was INTs. That also continued through the first part of the season. However - that tendency has almost disappeared recently. He is certainly not perfect but appears to have made major strides in improving his game.

 

[Sharkinva]

This topic will either really heat up, or die a painful death within three weeks.

 

[ehb5]

Huh? How can you label Winston as a guy deserving big money & not also apply the same tag to Bortles? He was also drafted very high & is putting up record setting #s for his team rt now. He is playing just about as good as anyone recently. I am puzzled why you don't give this guy much credit.

Ive seen multiple people say he really hasnt been playing well and I and just about everybody was higher on Jameis than Bortles coming out. I dont watch enough Bortles to know for sure but based on what I have seen and what I have heard he seems to still be very inconsistent. Hes also playing with 2 top 20 WRs which kinda helps. I saw about 3 different sources basically say he was a net zero for the Jags this past week when they put up 51.

 

[ehb5]

This topic will either really heat up, or die a painful death within three weeks.

I think its just gonna be a long slow grind of it always being brought up. We may get a break after the contract is signed but Im sure the debate will kick up again net season lol.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

This topic will either really heat up, or die a painful death within three weeks.

Guess which one im hoping for?

 

[Sharkinva]

Guess which one im hoping for?

NO worries, John Mara will simply impose another BS cap penalty on us if the Skins actually manage to win the Division.