Possible Outcomes

[iknowftbll]

The more I think about this game the more confident I grow the the Broncos will win. At the same time, I certainly don't fault the Seahawks fans for feeling the same way. The truth is nobody actually KNOWS what is going to happen. All the best predictions are just educated guesses, and most predictions are just homer bravado.

I mentioned that the prevailing mindset amongst a lot of Seahawks fans is that the Broncos genuinely have no shot to win this game. What's funny is I read a Seahawks fan here on SportsHoopla pretty much voice the same critique about Broncos fans. Fair or unfair, these perceptions of our opponent's fans go a long way toward shaping the discussion until we have an actual outcome to discuss.

Now the fans who are open minded see this matchup and know it can go either way. And despite my impression that most Seahawks fans give the Broncos no shot at all, there are many who speculate it will be a close game. Not surprisingly these fans give the Seahawks an edge. And I don't blame them, it's not like I expect even the most unbiased amongst Seahawks fans to throw their arms up and say, "Yeah, it was a great season, but the Broncos are gonna beat the Seahawks. Maybe next year..." (FWIW, there are fans who chat on "Field Gulls" who seem to think Broncos fans should feel this way, but I digress.)

So this all has me considering the possible outcomes in this game. Obviously at the end of the day the outcome will be a winner and a loser. In a season where both teams accomplished a tremendous amount, only one will succeed at the ultimate achievement. This thread is less about the winner and loser and more about how you expect the outcome to unfold. Consider the possibility of:

A Seahawks win...

...in a close game. If there is any defense that can slow down the Broncos offense long enough to give their offense a shot, it's the Seahawks. Their offense is good enough to move the ball, and with RB Lynch they sport one of the most physically brutal running games in the league. The Seahawks have also played some close games, so they know how to keep it together in a contested game. I don't think this outcome will surprise anyone.

...in a blowout or decisive win. The Seahawks defense excels at taking the football away. The Broncos have been a bit turnover prone this year, albeit they seem to have cleaned that up considerably. Still, the argument that the Broncos haven't played a defense this good is legitimate, and it's not a stretch to believe they will be able to force a turnover or two. If a pick comes on an attempted screen pass, it's going all the way back to the house, too because the Broncos probably won't have anyone in position to make the stop. If the Seahawks add a couple defensive scores and force some punts, this game could turn into a decisive win for the Seahawks. Maybe even a blowout.

A Broncos win...

...in a close one. It's not like the Broncos have not played in close games too. Twice this season they were down 21-7. One turned into a blowout win and the other saw the Broncos respond with 28 straight points in a roadie at Kansas City where the 9-2 Chiefs had lost only once. And after the amount of adversity this team has faced, it's not like these Broncos are not a mentally tough football team. A Broncos win in a tight game would not surprise anyone.

...in a blowout or decisive win. Even with a defense that allowed nearly 25 PPG the Broncos ran away from opponents, outscoring opponents by 13 PPG. And while the Broncos have not played a defense as good as Seattle's you can't ignore the fact that the Seahawks defense has not played an offense nearly as good as this Broncos offense. Furthermore you cannot ignore that Russell Wilson has not been playing great football late in the season and through the playoffs. Considering the Broncos defense is geared to take away the Seahawks best offensive weapon, this game may well come down to Wilson being able to beat the Broncos with his arm. And while it's fair to expect a professional of Wilson's caliber to rise to the occasion, it is also fair to hypothesis the stage may be too big for him, and without his primary weapon (assuming the Broncos defense is able to contain Lynch) he may be forced into some mistakes. The Broncos defense isn't known for forcing turnovers, but they've actually done it several times. And when they happen, the offense is usually able to exploit them. This scenario could result in the Broncos posting a blowout win.

With no scientific proof to support any of this, I rank the order of likelihood thusly:

Broncos win a close one.

Seahawks win a close one.

Broncos win a blowout or at least a decisive win.

Seahawks win a blowout or at least a decisive win.

Your thoughts?

 

[NEhomer]

I think the only way Denver loses is if your greatest fear comes true. Peyton has to crap the bed. Average to poor game with a losing INT near the end.

Barring that, a good game from Manning and it's almost a done deal.

 

[iknowftbll]

I think that's a fair statement, Homer. If Manning has a good game the Broncos will probably win. And the Seahawks really do have to take away a lot of options to force Manning into a bad game. Following the wild card round when we all learned the Broncos would be playing the Chargers, a lot of commentary went into the Chargers playing the perfect game against the Broncos in week 15. In order to win in the playoffs the Chargers needed to replicate the performance, and we all saw how that went.

The Seahawks really do need to play the perfect game to win this one. Because the Broncos defense has stepped up their level of play in their last 4 games and considering the multi-headed monster that is their offense, I think the Broncos have a little more room for error in this game. But not much.

 

[NEhomer]

Agreed.

I think you guys win rather handily. Gotta play it out but it'll take them really getting to Peyton quite a bit to come out on top.

 

[WalkerBoh]

One thing I posted earlier that gives me more confidence is the line comparison falls in Denver's favor. Overall our lines are slightly bigger than Seattle's, but we have decisive advantages on the inside of both lines. Plus, our big guys can still move as Knighton showed last week. I don't think most Seahawks fans realize this.

 

[iknowftbll]

One thing I posted earlier that gives me more confidence is the line comparison falls in Denver's favor. Overall our lines are slightly bigger than Seattle's, but we have decisive advantages on the inside of both lines. Plus, our big guys can still move as Knighton showed last week. I don't think most Seahawks fans realize this.

Nope. Most of them are still talking about the 48 points the Cowboys scored on this defense.

 

[SteelersPride]

I think the broncos or seahawks win this game...............Im just torn on which one, but Definitely one of those outcomes

 

[TDs3nOut]

One thing I posted earlier that gives me more confidence is the line comparison falls in Denver's favor. Overall our lines are slightly bigger than Seattle's, but we have decisive advantages on the inside of both lines. Plus, our big guys can still move as Knighton showed last week. I don't think most Seahawks fans realize this.

Both the offensive and defensive lines have played really well throughout the playoffs. Hopefully that holds up for another game. I really love the way that the offense has been balanced, giving us the TOP advantage and keeping the defense fresh.

 

[cdumler7]

My guess is the Broncos actually start out this game in the hurry up on offense forcing Seattle to not be able to make substitutions like they like. This would give Manning some major advantage in knowing whether the run or pass works best against the defense they have on the field. I can see the Broncos sticking with what has won them the two playoff games is offense score early and control the clock wearing down the defense while also forcing them out of their game plan on offense by stopping the run and forcing them to become one-dimensional. Now obviously this is easier said that done considering Seattle has allowed the fewest first quarter points in the NFL but then again the Broncos have scored the most 1st quarter points so something has to break.

 

[Morpheus]

I think the broncos or seahawks win this game...............Im just torn on which one, but Definitely one of those outcomes

Wow, you really went out on a limb there. Brilliant analysis too, I mean the detail of it is just so insightful.

Surprised you weren't more vague on the prediciton.

 

[Morpheus]

My guess is the Broncos actually start out this game in the hurry up on offense forcing Seattle to not be able to make substitutions like they like. This would give Manning some major advantage in knowing whether the run or pass works best against the defense they have on the field. I can see the Broncos sticking with what has won them the two playoff games is offense score early and control the clock wearing down the defense while also forcing them out of their game plan on offense by stopping the run and forcing them to become one-dimensional. Now obviously this is easier said that done considering Seattle has allowed the fewest first quarter points in the NFL but then again the Broncos have scored the most 1st quarter points so something has to break.

Usually the Broncos, Manning in particular, take a drive or two to figure out the looks the defense gives him, but in this case I tend to agree with you.

Seattle does not try to disguise what it is doing. It is aggressive and is going to come at you daring you to beat them.

I think Manning will take what they are giving them and expect a lot short passes mixed with the running game to manufacture clock eating drives that puts the Seattle defense on their heels.

 

[cdumler7]

Usually the Broncos, Manning in particular, take a drive or two to figure out the looks the defense gives him, but in this case I tend to agree with you.

Seattle does not try to disguise what it is doing. It is aggressive and is going to come at you daring you to beat them.

I think Manning will take what they are giving them and expect a lot short passes mixed with the running game to manufacture clock eating drives that puts the Seattle defense on their heels.

Yeah they don't really try to disguise much. They mostly let their talent play you straight up which to me is advantage Manning. He has 2 weeks to look at game film on this defense and I just don't think you can give a guy like Manning that much time and expect to come out on top. Now I could see Seattle decide to mix in a few new things early to try and throw Manning off but we shall see. This OL is going to have to play the game of their lives in this one and if they do I can see this game getting out of hand. If Seattle can get some pressure then yeah this game stays close and maybe they can force a couple of turnovers.

 

[WalkerBoh]

One thing I posted earlier that gives me more confidence is the line comparison falls in Denver's favor. Overall our lines are slightly bigger than Seattle's, but we have decisive advantages on the inside of both lines. Plus, our big guys can still move as Knighton showed last week. I don't think most Seahawks fans realize this.

Here's another little tidbit I picked up from SI.com:

Unger, the Seattle center, has had a so-so year run-blocking, and Pro Football Focus graded him poorly for his run play in both playoff games. The way Knighton is playing, you may see Seattle helping out on Knighton with extra chip-blocks or double-teams from guards. It’s a huge matchup in this game.

Marshawn Lynch might have a hard time finding holes if this rings true again next week. If Knighton is commanding double teams all night, Williams could end up being really key. He could have a really good game.

 

[Morpheus]

Here's another little tidbit I picked up from SI.com:



Marshawn Lynch might have a hard time finding holes if this rings true again next week. If Knighton is commanding double teams all night, Williams could end up being really key. He could have a really good game.

Unless they have success running outside. We had some issues with edge containment against SD at home.

You don't want Lynch getting to the 2nd level. He can break a tackle one on one and our current safeties have not impressed me with their open field tackling. Really wish Raheem Moore was healthy just for run support.

 

[cdumler7]

Unless they have success running outside. We had some issues with edge containment against SD at home.

You don't want Lynch getting to the 2nd level. He can break a tackle one on one and our current safeties have not impressed me with their open field tackling. Really wish Raheem Moore was healthy just for run support.

From what I understand at least in the last game all but 2 of their yards came between the tackles running the football so I don't think they try to hit the outside all that much.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Unless they have success running outside. We had some issues with edge containment against SD at home.

You don't want Lynch getting to the 2nd level. He can break a tackle one on one and our current safeties have not impressed me with their open field tackling. Really wish Raheem Moore was healthy just for run support.

I believe those issues were corrected by the time we played the Chargers in the playoffs.......

 

[randymon]

I have seen them struggle at times with reacting quick enough with plays outside the tackles but have seen much improvement over last 4 or 5 gms. They can still be exposed though and I hope they keep that in mind especially when Percy Harvin enters game. CONTAINMENT CONTAINMENT!!!!!

 

[WalkerBoh]

I think the main key for our defense will be to stay focused and disciplined. Keep Wilson inside the pocket, and he becomes average really quickly. He still needs work on progressions, and usually doesn't get past his first read. Also, he really struggles in zone defenses, preferring the man-to-man.

One thing he does well (just like Elway) is he keeps his head up when scrambling. He's looking to throw. This is where discipline is important. (Oh, and it doesn't hurt to have Elway on our side to give occasional pointers on beating scramblers...ha!)

If we play disciplined defense, and win the trench battles inside, Denver will win.

 

[iknowftbll]

With no scientific proof to support any of this, I rank the order of likelihood thusly:

Broncos win a close one.

Seahawks win a close one.

Broncos win a blowout or at least a decisive win.

Seahawks win a blowout or at least a decisive win.

Your thoughts?

Well, at least I did rank it as a possibility. I almost didn't. Football is that hard to predict, I guess.