Picks To Click

[calsnowskier]

OK, OK, OK...

I know I laugh at BoB for doing these, but it did kind of get me thinking about who is actually producing (offensively) on a game-by-game basis.

Starting last Monday, I started tracking each players offensive performance and assigning some quick, basic points to each thing that happens.

1 pt / total base
1 pt / walk/HBP
1 pt / run
1 pt / RBI
1 pt / SB
1 pt / Sac
-1 pt / CS (POs not counted, but they probably should)
-1 pt / GDP
-3 pt / GTP
-1 pt / error/PB

The best single game put up by any Giant this past week was Aoki on Monday against Milwaukee when he had 13 points. However, for the week, he was only the third best Giant with a total of 23. Belt, not surprisingly, was second with a total of 30, anchored by a 9 on Thursday and an 8 on Sunday. Posey, with his 11 on Friday, was actually very quiet on the week, scoring only 14 total.

With a total of 34, the best Giant of the week was surprisingly Joe Panik . He scored a 10 on Sunday and an 8 on Wednesday.

 

[Band of Brothers]

I like it Cal. Good job.Interesting scoring system.


One thing I would change is runs scored and RBI's have more value than just one point. SB Walks and Sac's should not have the same value as a RBI or RS.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am thinking of making 2 changes to this system...

Include POs in the CS. There is really no reason not to. I was actually surprised that POs did not count as a CS to begin with...

Reduce Sacs from 1 point to .5 points. Sacs are good, and CAN be the difference in a game, but an out was still recorded.

Another tweak that I am considering, but I am not sure how to implement it easily, is to count line into DPs as if they were GDP. For example, Pagan's DP yesterday was not a GDP, so he did not receive the -1 penalty, even though it was still a DP. The prob is that it did not appear in the box score.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I am thinking of making 2 changes to this system...

Include POs in the CS. There is really no reason not to. I was actually surprised that POs did not count as a CS to begin with...

Reduce Sacs from 1 point to .5 points. Sacs are good, and CAN be the difference in a game, but an out was still recorded.

Another tweak that I am considering, but I am not sure how to implement it easily, is to count line into DPs as if they were GDP. For example, Pagan's DP yesterday was not a GDP, so he did not receive the -1 penalty, even though it was still a DP. The prob is that it did not appear in the box score.

What are you trying to measure?? what I am asking, there is a difference between result and production stats to how good a player SHOULD have done...

If you are measuring the result stats then I agree those DP should be measured equally, but I would also put more weight into Runs, RBIs, and some other things...

If you are trying to measure the behind the scenes stats then a line drive DP is really bad luck isn't it??

 

[calsnowskier]

What are you trying to measure?? what I am asking, there is a difference between result and production stats to how good a player SHOULD have done...

If you are measuring the result stats then I agree those DP should be measured equally, but I would also put more weight into Runs, RBIs, and some other things...

If you are trying to measure the behind the scenes stats then a line drive DP is really bad luck isn't it??

The #1 criteria is ease. Something that should not take more than a couple mins to measure. I am not that concerned with anything that will catch on and be a new "perfect" stat. This is why I probably will not include line-outs to DPs, because they are not represented in the box score. Ease trumps accuracy.

My initial purpose for this was just as a kind of game. I watched a Padres telecast earlier this season (I am forced to when the Giants play them) and they have a segment before first pitch where all the broadcasters pick a star of the game, and there are points that can be accrued. They then have a running total of each persons picks on the season. This is nothing competitive, but just fun. I just want a decent system in place so if we ever want to do this, it will be developed.

I dont give runs or RBIs any additional weight, because the other stuff they got on the way to the run/RBI should already account for that. For example, a solo-shot is worth 6 points (4 TBs, 1 run, 1 RBI) and a SF RBI is currently worth 2, but I am considering making it 1.5 instead. A run is worth only 1, but the scorer had to get on base and advance. If he got a SB, that is as good as an extra TB, so it is a full point. If he gets caught, it nullifies a TB.

 

[calsnowskier]

A further clarification...

I think this is intended to measure a combination of situational-independent results and clutch. Situational-independent would ignore RBIs and sacs completely.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

So if you are doing IN GAME statistics, where Results are all that matter, then a line drive DP should be a regular DP then... I mean it is 2 outs and the exact same thing...

Its kind of like a bloop hit, at the end of the day it is just like any other hit... But again, I would increase runs and RBIs, because really what is more important than those two stats??

you say that a HR would be at least 6 points, and that's why you wouldn't want to increase the runs or RBIs, but doubles and triples should also score a player so those points should be counted separately... a HR is 4 points not 6...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

A further clarification...

I think this is intended to measure a combination of situational-independent results and clutch. Situational-independent would ignore RBIs and sacs completely.

you are not separating scenarios, so clutch is really not the measurement... if you wanted to measure those then you would need to give more weight to the PA when runners are on or in a specific inning, or when there is a specific score...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Sorry for complicating your awesome formula by the way(being serious)... Wish you didn't post this in SF only, because these threads interest me... and as a New Yorker and a yankee fan I don't really look at the giants forum...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

a couple more observations that you may want to look into...

you did not penalize for a SO
you should probably penalize for all outs
you are counting a sacrifice twice, and equal to a single??

 

[calsnowskier]

So if you are doing IN GAME statistics, where Results are all that matter, then a line drive DP should be a regular DP then... I mean it is 2 outs and the exact same thing...

Its kind of like a bloop hit, at the end of the day it is just like any other hit... But again, I would increase runs and RBIs, because really what is more important than those two stats??

you say that a HR would be at least 6 points, and that's why you wouldn't want to increase the runs or RBIs, but doubles and triples should also score a player so those points should be counted separately... a HR is 4 points not 6...

A triple is worth 3 points (3 TB). A HR is 6 because of the run and RBI.

I agree that a line-out DP SHOULD count the same as a GDP, but only GDP are shown in the box. Again, ease trumps accuracy. At the same time, though, a fly out DP should not count as a GDP because that would typically be on the runner, not the batter. I am not taking this into account either because the ease/accuracy issue.

 

[calsnowskier]

a couple more observations that you may want to look into...

you did not penalize for a SO
you should probably penalize for all outs
you are counting a sacrifice twice, and equal to a single??

How an I counting a sac twice?

I do not count a ground out as a negative, so a K gets the same treatment.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

A triple is worth 3 points (3 TB). A HR is 6 because of the run and RBI.

I agree that a line-out DP SHOULD count the same as a GDP, but only GDP are shown in the box. Again, ease trumps accuracy. At the same time, though, a fly out DP should not count as a GDP because that would typically be on the runner, not the batter. I am not taking this into account either because the ease/accuracy issue.

sounds like you are better off making this a player independent to team measurement...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

How an I counting a sac twice?

I do not count a ground out as a negative, so a K gets the same treatment.

generally(not always) a sac comes with a RBI...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

How an I counting a sac twice?

I do not count a ground out as a negative, so a K gets the same treatment.

but moving up a batter is an important feature in baseball...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

your formula is already not easy, why not complicate it slightly to make it more accurate...

not saying to complicate it much... or do anything crazy...

 

[calsnowskier]

your formula is already not easy, why not complicate it slightly to make it more accurate...

not saying to complicate it much... or do anything crazy...

It is not messy by design. I want to look at the box and do the entire team in a minute or two.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It is not messy by design. I want to look at the box and do the entire team in a minute or two.

I understand... But I think you can do better with a couple tweaks...

how about

+1 per TB
+1 per BB
+.5 per HBB
+1 per RBI and run
+ 1 per SB
.5 per sac
-1 per out created(including ROE)
-.25 per SO

still keeping it simple but now including everything

 

[calsnowskier]

Outs are a given. I think counting those are rather pointless.

There are cases where a K is almost desired (pitcher up, for instance). Leading off an inning, a k is the same as an F8.

Why only count HBP as a .5 while a BB gets a full point? Both benefit the team equally. Also, and probably more importantly, HBP are so rare that it isn't worth separating them out.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

you right, i should have omitted HBP...