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iowajerms
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**** I will do 4 games a post. Post 1/3
College football - Phil Steele's Week 1 best bets
Football is finally back, and there are some interesting games on this week's card, including lot of ranked teams in action. There are 39 games where two FBS teams face off, so here are 10 of my selections on some of this week's biggest games.
Note: All times Eastern. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday at 1 p.m.


South Carolina Gamecocks (-2) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Thursday at 6:00 p.m., ESPN
Despite this game being in North Carolina, the schools are about equidistant from the stadium, so the crowd should be split. Steve Spurrier is 9-1 in opening games at South Carolina, but that one loss happened last year. In that game, the Gamecocks were big favorites -- and favored to win the SEC East -- but were embarrassed by Texas A&M at home 52-28.
Both teams were 6-6 in the regular season last year, but they were not that close talent-wise. South Carolina blew three fourth-quarter double-digit leads and could easily have been a 10-3 team. North Carolina was blown out in most of their losses, losing five games by 15 or more points (losing by an average of 20.3 points).
South Carolina played the tougher schedule and was plus-10 yards per game while North Carolina was actually minus-68 yards per game. UNC has 17 returning starters (South Carolina has 12), but the Gamecocks are the stronger team with a much better defense. I think the SEC school opens with the win here.
ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: South Carolina 34, North Carolina 27


Oklahoma State Cowboys (-23) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Thursday at 7:00 p.m., ESPNU
These two teams seem to have almost nothing in common. Last year, Central Michigan, the fourth-most-experienced FBS team, won seven games in the regular season for the first time since 2009. Oklahoma State had the least-experienced team in the country and, after averaging 10 wins per season the last five years, only managed to finish 7-6 after a bowl win, and to accomplish even that, it needed Oklahoma to accept a penalty on a punt return and then for Tyreek Hill to return a punt for a touchdown and force OT, eventually allowing Oklahoma State to win that game.
Central Michigan has just nine returning starters, and Oklahoma State has 16, including QB Mason Rudolph, who took off his red shirt and led the Pokes to wins over Oklahoma and Washington (bowl). Last year, Central Michigan lost at home to a 3-9 Syracuse team by a 40-3 margin, and here they face an unranked and under-the-radar OK State team.
Mike Gundy likes to score points, and after averaging 44.4 points per game from 2010-2013, the Cowboys dipped to 27.6 in 2014. He will be anxious to get the team off to a solid start here, while Central Michigan gets used to a new head coach, as former head coach Dan Enos jumped off that sinking ship to become an offensive coordinator at Arkansas.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 48, Central Michigan 17


Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-5.5)
Thursday at 8:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1
Jim Harbaugh makes his debut for Michigan. He inherits a top-10 defense, and that unit adds in DB Jabrill Peppers, who was injured early in '14 and redshirted. Utah has my No. 18-rated defense and the edge on offense. Michigan did have more first downs (19-13) in this matchup last year, but Utah won in the Big House 26-10 as an underdog. Utah won five of its games last year by six points or less and does have the altitude advantage, plus will have the MUSS (student section) at full throttle for this rare marquee nonconference opponent. Utah is the stronger team and they have my No. 1-rated special teams, while Michigan's special teams unit is middle-of-the-pack. Look for Harbaugh to lose in his debut.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 21, Michigan 13
Saturday


No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)
Saturday at 7:00 p.m., ESPN
This will be a much-discussed game throughout the year, as it's Pac-12 vs. SEC, and those two conferences are in the debate for best conference. The game is in Houston, so A&M will have a crowd edge.
Both teams should have a much-improved defense, with A&M adding defensive coordinator John Chavis. He has eight returning starters, including DE Myles Garrett, who had 11.5 sacks as a true frosh. Their defense allowed 451 yards per game in 2014. Arizona State only had two returning starters on defense last year and allowed 417 YPG. This year, they have a much more veteran unit, with nine starters back and some solid transfers brought in.
Both teams have quarterbacks that did well when called upon last year and will have explosive offenses. Texas A&M does have the special teams edge. Todd Graham says it is his best team yet, and they finished No. 12 in the polls last year, getting as high as No. 7. Texas A&M finished the year unranked after going 3-5 in its last eight games. I think the Sun Devils are the stronger overall team and pull the upset.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 34, Texas A&M 31
College football - Phil Steele's Week 1 best bets
Last year, my picks went 111-39 straight-up for a solid 74 percent during the regular season, but my against-the-spread (ATS) mark was only 50 percent (74-74-1)Football is finally back, and there are some interesting games on this week's card, including lot of ranked teams in action. There are 39 games where two FBS teams face off, so here are 10 of my selections on some of this week's biggest games.
Note: All times Eastern. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday at 1 p.m.
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Thursday


South Carolina Gamecocks (-2) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Thursday at 6:00 p.m., ESPN
Despite this game being in North Carolina, the schools are about equidistant from the stadium, so the crowd should be split. Steve Spurrier is 9-1 in opening games at South Carolina, but that one loss happened last year. In that game, the Gamecocks were big favorites -- and favored to win the SEC East -- but were embarrassed by Texas A&M at home 52-28.
Both teams were 6-6 in the regular season last year, but they were not that close talent-wise. South Carolina blew three fourth-quarter double-digit leads and could easily have been a 10-3 team. North Carolina was blown out in most of their losses, losing five games by 15 or more points (losing by an average of 20.3 points).
South Carolina played the tougher schedule and was plus-10 yards per game while North Carolina was actually minus-68 yards per game. UNC has 17 returning starters (South Carolina has 12), but the Gamecocks are the stronger team with a much better defense. I think the SEC school opens with the win here.
ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: South Carolina 34, North Carolina 27


Oklahoma State Cowboys (-23) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Thursday at 7:00 p.m., ESPNU
These two teams seem to have almost nothing in common. Last year, Central Michigan, the fourth-most-experienced FBS team, won seven games in the regular season for the first time since 2009. Oklahoma State had the least-experienced team in the country and, after averaging 10 wins per season the last five years, only managed to finish 7-6 after a bowl win, and to accomplish even that, it needed Oklahoma to accept a penalty on a punt return and then for Tyreek Hill to return a punt for a touchdown and force OT, eventually allowing Oklahoma State to win that game.
Central Michigan has just nine returning starters, and Oklahoma State has 16, including QB Mason Rudolph, who took off his red shirt and led the Pokes to wins over Oklahoma and Washington (bowl). Last year, Central Michigan lost at home to a 3-9 Syracuse team by a 40-3 margin, and here they face an unranked and under-the-radar OK State team.
Mike Gundy likes to score points, and after averaging 44.4 points per game from 2010-2013, the Cowboys dipped to 27.6 in 2014. He will be anxious to get the team off to a solid start here, while Central Michigan gets used to a new head coach, as former head coach Dan Enos jumped off that sinking ship to become an offensive coordinator at Arkansas.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 48, Central Michigan 17


Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-5.5)
Thursday at 8:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1
Jim Harbaugh makes his debut for Michigan. He inherits a top-10 defense, and that unit adds in DB Jabrill Peppers, who was injured early in '14 and redshirted. Utah has my No. 18-rated defense and the edge on offense. Michigan did have more first downs (19-13) in this matchup last year, but Utah won in the Big House 26-10 as an underdog. Utah won five of its games last year by six points or less and does have the altitude advantage, plus will have the MUSS (student section) at full throttle for this rare marquee nonconference opponent. Utah is the stronger team and they have my No. 1-rated special teams, while Michigan's special teams unit is middle-of-the-pack. Look for Harbaugh to lose in his debut.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 21, Michigan 13
Saturday


No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)
Saturday at 7:00 p.m., ESPN
This will be a much-discussed game throughout the year, as it's Pac-12 vs. SEC, and those two conferences are in the debate for best conference. The game is in Houston, so A&M will have a crowd edge.
Both teams should have a much-improved defense, with A&M adding defensive coordinator John Chavis. He has eight returning starters, including DE Myles Garrett, who had 11.5 sacks as a true frosh. Their defense allowed 451 yards per game in 2014. Arizona State only had two returning starters on defense last year and allowed 417 YPG. This year, they have a much more veteran unit, with nine starters back and some solid transfers brought in.
Both teams have quarterbacks that did well when called upon last year and will have explosive offenses. Texas A&M does have the special teams edge. Todd Graham says it is his best team yet, and they finished No. 12 in the polls last year, getting as high as No. 7. Texas A&M finished the year unranked after going 3-5 in its last eight games. I think the Sun Devils are the stronger overall team and pull the upset.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 34, Texas A&M 31