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When projecting how teams will perform for the upcoming season, there are many factors to consider. I actually have nine different sets of power ratings that evaluate teams based on their returning talent, experience and overall production. I then plug these power ratings into complex formulas and play out their season nine different ways.
Many times there are teams that rank in the top 25 of my power poll (pure talent ratings), but actually are projected to have four or five losses and maybe even more. On the opposite side, teams that barely make my top 50 in talent ratings are sometimes projected to have only one or two losses.
The reason for these disparities comes down to one factor: a team's schedule. The strength of schedule, or lack thereof, could be the most important factor when projecting how a team will perform.
Let's take a look first at three teams that don't have elite talent but could still be in store for big seasons because of their easy paths, then look at three good teams that could stumble to mediocre records because of tough competition.
Schedule winners
Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals enter 2013 fresh off their Sugar Bowl upset of Florida that vaulted them to No. 13 in the final polls. This year they return 16 starters, including 10 on defense, and are led by quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. There is no doubting that Bridgewater is a top talent, but the rest of the team is not quite at that level. In fact, I rank the Cardinals just No. 19 in my power poll, which accounts for talent only.
The reason the Cardinals are No. 7 in my preseason top 40 is that they play my 98th-ranked schedule and will be favored in all 12 of their games this year. Their nonconference schedule features just one BCS team in Kentucky, which the Cardinals have dispatched in back-to-back years. The AAC is even more watered down this year with the loss of Syracuse and Pittsburgh and the additions of four former C-USA teams. If they can avoid an upset, the Cardinals have a great shot of going unbeaten, and five of my nine sets of power ratings actually call for it.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Huskers are my pick to win the Big Ten Legends division for a second straight year, despite ranking behind Michigan (No. 21) in my power poll at No. 27. The offense has some nice talent, especially at the skill positions (led by quarterback Taylor Martinez), but the defense returns just four starters and none of them made my preseason first-team All-Big Ten.
Last year, Nebraska was able to make the Big Ten championship game despite having to play both Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders division in conference play. This year, the Buckeyes and Badgers are replaced by Purdue and Illinois. The Huskers also get to host two of the other three Legends division contenders in Michigan State and Northwestern. They open up with five straight home games, including a revenge game against UCLA.
The toughest game on the schedule is a trip to Michigan. However, the Wolverines have to play Ohio State and travel to Penn State, Michigan State and Northwestern. Because of the stark difference in schedules, the Huskers could even drop that game to the Wolverines and still finish with a better conference record.
Northern Illinois Huskies
For the second consecutive year, the Huskies are a legitimate threat to make a BCS game, despite ranking only 54th in my power poll. Last year, the Huskies played just two BCS teams and both were mediocre in Iowa (4-8), which they lost to in the season opener, and Kansas (1-11). The Huskies played one ranked team, Kent State, and when they finally faced some legitimate competition -- Florida State, in the Orange Bowl -- they were overmatched.
This year, they return 12 starters. The Huskies are led by quarterback Jordan Lynch, who is one of the better players in the country. The problem is that much of the talent surrounding him would be hard-pressed to start at many BCS programs. The reason the Huskies nearly cracked my preseason top 25 (No. 26) is that they play my No. 124 schedule. The Huskies will face two Big Ten teams (Iowa and Purdue) in nonconference action, but they are capable of winning both games. In MAC play, they avoid the top two teams from the East in Bowling Green and Ohio, and they will probably be favored in 11 games this year.
Three sets of my power ratings call for the Huskies to go unbeaten. If that happens, it will be back-to-back BCS bowls for the two-time defending MAC Champs.
Schedule losers
Florida Gators
Last year, the Gators were my surprise pick to win the SEC East. They finished the regular season 11-1 and were No. 3 before being upset in the Sugar Bowl. This year the Gators have just 10 returning starters. They will feature an improved offense, led by quarterback Jeff Driskel in his second year as the starter. While the Gators have just four starters back on defense, I rated their defensive line and defensive back units among the top in the SEC. Overall, the Gators were No. 12 in my power poll, but unfortunately, the schedule maker did them no favors as they play my No. 1 toughest schedule.
In SEC play, they have to play at SEC West powerhouse LSU. Other SEC East contenders Georgia and South Carolina have easier cross-divisional games. The Bulldogs get LSU at home, and South Carolina avoids Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU altogether. The Gators also have to travel to South Carolina, while they naturally play Georgia at a neutral site. Throw in two very tough nonconference games against Miami and Florida State, and the Gators, despite being nearly as talented as last year, will probably lose three regular-season games in 2013.
UCLA Bruins
Last year, Jim Mora rejuvenated a Bruins program that had become a perennial underachiever in the last decade. A 9-2 start, highlighted by a win over crosstown rival USC, had the Bruins in the top 15 for the first time since 2005 before they dropped their last three games. This year, they return 12 starters. The Bruins are led by quarterback Brett Hundley, who set a UCLA single-season total offense record with 3,470 yards last year. On defense, returning OLB Anthony Barr could be a top-10 pick in next year's draft.
Many analysts have UCLA in their preseason top 25, but I do not because of their tough schedule. In nonconference action, they must travel to Nebraska, which is my pick to win the Big Ten Legends. In conference play, the Bruins have arguably the toughest back-to-back road trip of any team in the country this year. They play Stanford on Oct. 19 followed by Oregon on Oct. 26 and must also play at USC this year. Overall, the Bruins have top-25 talent, but will find it hard matching last year's nine wins.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have become an annual bowl team under Dan Mullen, with three straight appearances. Two years ago, expectations were high for Mississippi State, but I had them picked lower than anyone else due to their schedule. They hosted LSU and Alabama, and most of their winnable SEC West games were on the road. Last year, the opposite was true; key division games were at home, and the Bulldogs jumped to a 7-0 start before the schedule toughened.
This year, they return 12 starters from an 8-5 team. While I rank them ahead of Northern Illinois in my power poll at No. 44, I do not even have the Bulldogs projected in a bowl this year due to their difficult schedule.
It starts with a nonconference game against a top-15 Oklahoma State team in Houston. They also play two dangerous opponents in Bowling Green and Troy, which are both capable of pulling an upset. LSU and Alabama are at home, while winnable games against Arkansas and Auburn are on the road. Throw in trips to Texas A&M and South Carolina, along with a home game against surging Ole Miss, and Mississippi State could be favored in just four games this year. On the flip side, if the Bulldogs were to play Northern Illinois' schedule, they would be favored in all 12 games.
Source: Teams most affected by schedules in 2013 - College Football - ESPN
Many times there are teams that rank in the top 25 of my power poll (pure talent ratings), but actually are projected to have four or five losses and maybe even more. On the opposite side, teams that barely make my top 50 in talent ratings are sometimes projected to have only one or two losses.
The reason for these disparities comes down to one factor: a team's schedule. The strength of schedule, or lack thereof, could be the most important factor when projecting how a team will perform.
Let's take a look first at three teams that don't have elite talent but could still be in store for big seasons because of their easy paths, then look at three good teams that could stumble to mediocre records because of tough competition.
Schedule winners
Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals enter 2013 fresh off their Sugar Bowl upset of Florida that vaulted them to No. 13 in the final polls. This year they return 16 starters, including 10 on defense, and are led by quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. There is no doubting that Bridgewater is a top talent, but the rest of the team is not quite at that level. In fact, I rank the Cardinals just No. 19 in my power poll, which accounts for talent only.
The reason the Cardinals are No. 7 in my preseason top 40 is that they play my 98th-ranked schedule and will be favored in all 12 of their games this year. Their nonconference schedule features just one BCS team in Kentucky, which the Cardinals have dispatched in back-to-back years. The AAC is even more watered down this year with the loss of Syracuse and Pittsburgh and the additions of four former C-USA teams. If they can avoid an upset, the Cardinals have a great shot of going unbeaten, and five of my nine sets of power ratings actually call for it.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Huskers are my pick to win the Big Ten Legends division for a second straight year, despite ranking behind Michigan (No. 21) in my power poll at No. 27. The offense has some nice talent, especially at the skill positions (led by quarterback Taylor Martinez), but the defense returns just four starters and none of them made my preseason first-team All-Big Ten.
Last year, Nebraska was able to make the Big Ten championship game despite having to play both Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders division in conference play. This year, the Buckeyes and Badgers are replaced by Purdue and Illinois. The Huskers also get to host two of the other three Legends division contenders in Michigan State and Northwestern. They open up with five straight home games, including a revenge game against UCLA.
The toughest game on the schedule is a trip to Michigan. However, the Wolverines have to play Ohio State and travel to Penn State, Michigan State and Northwestern. Because of the stark difference in schedules, the Huskers could even drop that game to the Wolverines and still finish with a better conference record.
Northern Illinois Huskies
For the second consecutive year, the Huskies are a legitimate threat to make a BCS game, despite ranking only 54th in my power poll. Last year, the Huskies played just two BCS teams and both were mediocre in Iowa (4-8), which they lost to in the season opener, and Kansas (1-11). The Huskies played one ranked team, Kent State, and when they finally faced some legitimate competition -- Florida State, in the Orange Bowl -- they were overmatched.
This year, they return 12 starters. The Huskies are led by quarterback Jordan Lynch, who is one of the better players in the country. The problem is that much of the talent surrounding him would be hard-pressed to start at many BCS programs. The reason the Huskies nearly cracked my preseason top 25 (No. 26) is that they play my No. 124 schedule. The Huskies will face two Big Ten teams (Iowa and Purdue) in nonconference action, but they are capable of winning both games. In MAC play, they avoid the top two teams from the East in Bowling Green and Ohio, and they will probably be favored in 11 games this year.
Three sets of my power ratings call for the Huskies to go unbeaten. If that happens, it will be back-to-back BCS bowls for the two-time defending MAC Champs.
Schedule losers
Florida Gators
Last year, the Gators were my surprise pick to win the SEC East. They finished the regular season 11-1 and were No. 3 before being upset in the Sugar Bowl. This year the Gators have just 10 returning starters. They will feature an improved offense, led by quarterback Jeff Driskel in his second year as the starter. While the Gators have just four starters back on defense, I rated their defensive line and defensive back units among the top in the SEC. Overall, the Gators were No. 12 in my power poll, but unfortunately, the schedule maker did them no favors as they play my No. 1 toughest schedule.
In SEC play, they have to play at SEC West powerhouse LSU. Other SEC East contenders Georgia and South Carolina have easier cross-divisional games. The Bulldogs get LSU at home, and South Carolina avoids Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU altogether. The Gators also have to travel to South Carolina, while they naturally play Georgia at a neutral site. Throw in two very tough nonconference games against Miami and Florida State, and the Gators, despite being nearly as talented as last year, will probably lose three regular-season games in 2013.
UCLA Bruins
Last year, Jim Mora rejuvenated a Bruins program that had become a perennial underachiever in the last decade. A 9-2 start, highlighted by a win over crosstown rival USC, had the Bruins in the top 15 for the first time since 2005 before they dropped their last three games. This year, they return 12 starters. The Bruins are led by quarterback Brett Hundley, who set a UCLA single-season total offense record with 3,470 yards last year. On defense, returning OLB Anthony Barr could be a top-10 pick in next year's draft.
Many analysts have UCLA in their preseason top 25, but I do not because of their tough schedule. In nonconference action, they must travel to Nebraska, which is my pick to win the Big Ten Legends. In conference play, the Bruins have arguably the toughest back-to-back road trip of any team in the country this year. They play Stanford on Oct. 19 followed by Oregon on Oct. 26 and must also play at USC this year. Overall, the Bruins have top-25 talent, but will find it hard matching last year's nine wins.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have become an annual bowl team under Dan Mullen, with three straight appearances. Two years ago, expectations were high for Mississippi State, but I had them picked lower than anyone else due to their schedule. They hosted LSU and Alabama, and most of their winnable SEC West games were on the road. Last year, the opposite was true; key division games were at home, and the Bulldogs jumped to a 7-0 start before the schedule toughened.
This year, they return 12 starters from an 8-5 team. While I rank them ahead of Northern Illinois in my power poll at No. 44, I do not even have the Bulldogs projected in a bowl this year due to their difficult schedule.
It starts with a nonconference game against a top-15 Oklahoma State team in Houston. They also play two dangerous opponents in Bowling Green and Troy, which are both capable of pulling an upset. LSU and Alabama are at home, while winnable games against Arkansas and Auburn are on the road. Throw in trips to Texas A&M and South Carolina, along with a home game against surging Ole Miss, and Mississippi State could be favored in just four games this year. On the flip side, if the Bulldogs were to play Northern Illinois' schedule, they would be favored in all 12 games.
Source: Teams most affected by schedules in 2013 - College Football - ESPN
