Pence

[Heathbar012]

I agree there are some decent OF prospects, but there is a big difference between unproven prospects with virtually no MLB experience, and a guy like Pence. The prospects may bear fruit 2-4 years from now, but are they ready for 2014? Likely not, not to produce like Pence.

If we don't sign Pence, where are we going OF-wise in 2014? Torres/Pagan/Blanco, with Perez/Abreu/Kieschnick as subs? That is not contender-level quality.

I agree with this assessment. There is no way to replace Pence's production without overpaying. I'd rather overpay Pence.

2014 Free Agents via mlbtraderumors.com

Left fielders

Jason Bay (35)
Mark DeRosa (39)
Matt Diaz (36)
Raul Ibanez (42)
Reed Johnson (37) - $1.6MM club option with a $150K buyout
Austin Kearns (34)
Jason Kubel (32) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Nate McLouth (32)
Mike Morse (32)
David Murphy (32)
Xavier Nady (35)
Laynce Nix (33)
Ryan Raburn (33)
Delmon Young (28)

Center fielders

Alfredo Amezaga (36)
Rick Ankiel (34)
Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Rajai Davis (33)
Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
Curtis Granderson (33)
Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
Nyjer Morgan (33)
Andres Torres (36)
Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Right fielders

Jeff Baker (33)
Carlos Beltran (37)
Marlon Byrd (36)
Shin-Soo Choo (31)
Nelson Cruz (33)
David DeJesus (34) - $6.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Mark DeRosa (39)
Matt Diaz (36)
Jeff Francoeur (30)
Corey Hart (32)
Xavier Nady (35)
Nyjer Morgan (33)
Hunter Pence (31)
Juan Rivera (35)

Not exactly awe inspiring. I see a fee situations that could work. I think Choo is locked up now, and there might be a few other mistakes on this list, but if this year continues how it started for Hunter, he will be the jewel of that class. That brings us back to cal's point: why would he sign an extension now? Hopefully, because he likes his situation. Time will tell.

 

[SFGRTB]

Yeah. No Zach Wheeler situation here. And the Zach Wheeler situation wouldn't even be a situation if it seemed like Sabes ever made an effort to re-sign Beltran. Either way, butterfly effect and all that. Though, it would be nice to be bringing up a Top-10 Prospect in the next few days to sure up this rotation. Such is life. Fuck you, Scott Cousins, wherever you are.

Seriously, what a terrible fucking year that was. Thinking of O-Crap and Teh-nada up the middle just makes me sick.

 

[SF11704]

Living in NY I don't see what most of you can on a daily basis. But from what I do see I just love that Pence is on our team. He seems to have developed a real bond with his team mates. He always looks like he's involved and always appears to be giving at least 110%. I just don't think the guy EVER gives up. When I get a chance to see the G-men on TV it's always Pence that facinates me. Always seems to be in motion. He just seems like he's happy to be here. It's always been somewhat easy to equate a value to a player based purely on his stats. Seems to be a contribution that you can measure. Pence is one of the few plays that I feel provides another type of contribution to this team other than just his stats. He almost seems to infuse them with his emotions ...

 

[tzill]

I agree there are some decent OF prospects, but there is a big difference between unproven prospects with virtually no MLB experience, and a guy like Pence. The prospects may bear fruit 2-4 years from now, but are they ready for 2014? Likely not, not to produce like Pence.

If we don't sign Pence, where are we going OF-wise in 2014? Torres/Pagan/Blanco, with Perez/Abreu/Kieschnick as subs? That is not contender-level quality.

I agree, you can't expect a 120 OPS+ 4.0 WAR year from a rookie. Then again, the rookie will be $15MM a year cheaper. What I'm saying is that the minors aren't barren of prospects.

 

[Heathbar012]

I agree, you can't expect a 120 OPS+ 4.0 WAR year from a rookie. Then again, the rookie will be $15MM a year cheaper. What I'm saying is that the minors aren't barren of prospects.

Agreed, and at least a couple of those products will benefit greatly by being brought along slowly. Our farm is underrated (not by much, but still). Hopefully, even by us.

 

[msgkings322]

I agree with this assessment. There is no way to replace Pence's production without overpaying. I'd rather overpay Pence.


.

This.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I agree with this assessment. There is no way to replace Pence's production without overpaying. I'd rather overpay Pence.

But not for 5 years, hopefully.


If he likes the team and the locker room atmosphere and wants to stay, a goodly portion of the core of the current and future teams will be here a while :

Buster thru '21
MadBum & Cain thru '17 (at the *least*)
Pagan thru '16
Affeldt, Scoots & Casilla thru '15
Crawford, Belt, Blanco thru ??? (unless they suck, at least thru '15 or '16)

As mentioned earlier, hopefully Pence will be OK with a 'hometown discount' to remain in a place he likes, with teammates he likes, who all share the same ring decoration. A "with this core set of players locked up we could be back in the WS in '13, '14, and '15" could also be a solid argument.

I think it's a no-brainer that he gets offered more than 3/45 or 4/60 during the off-season. Either of those ARE 'home town discounts'.

 

[Mays-Fan]

One also has to ask the question: "How much would the Dodgers be willing to pay in total to":

1) Obtain the services of Hunter Pence?

2) Deny the Giants from keeping Hunter Pence?

The Dodgers with Hunter Pence, and the Giants without Hunter Pence creates a big swing in the win columns of the respective teams.

Just something else to consider here.

 

[calsnowskier]

One also has to ask the question: "How much would the Dodgers be willing to pay in total to":

1) Obtain the services of Hunter Pence?

2) Deny the Giants from keeping Hunter Pence?

The Dodgers with Hunter Pence, and the Giants without Hunter Pence creates a big swing in the win columns of the respective teams.

Just something else to consider here.

Where would they play him?

Crawford, Kemp, Puig is pretty solid, assuming Craw stays alive. The doggies would do that move only to spite the G's, and that is just bad business.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Where would they play him?

Crawford, Kemp, Puig is pretty solid, assuming Craw stays alive. The doggies would do that move only to spite the G's, and that is just bad business.

But when the salary of a 4th OF/PH/guru is a relatively inconsequential percentage of the payroll (soon to exceed $300mm I understand), spite plays a larger and larger role.

And I suspect that for the Dodgers, sticking it to the G's is never "bad business".

 

[calsnowskier]

But when the salary of a 4th OF/PH/guru is a relatively inconsequential percentage of the payroll (soon to exceed $300mm I understand), spite plays a larger and larger role.

And I suspect that for the Dodgers, sticking it to the G's is never "bad business".

Ok, lets take it one step further, then...

Why would Pence go there knowing that he will really never be anything more than a 4th OF/PH? He would need to offered a LOT more than any other team is offering to do that.

Again, I don't see it happening.

Especially when I suspect the Spanks, Snakes, Phills, Rangers, etc, etc, etc would all at east kick the tires on him, and likely price the G's out anyway. The doggies will not need to do stupid business to keep him away from the G's.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Ok, lets take it one step further, then...

Why would Pence go there knowing that he will really never be anything more than a 4th OF/PH? He would need to offered a LOT more than any other team is offering to do that.

Again, I don't see it happening.

Especially when I suspect the Spanks, Snakes, Phills, Rangers, etc, etc, etc would all at east kick the tires on him, and likely price the G's out anyway. The doggies will not need to do stupid business to keep him away from the G's.

OK, in this case I was trying to be a bit humorous/sarcastic/surreal/overspeculative/etc. I recall a Dodger troll here shortly after their TV deal was announced saying quite good-naturedly that they could outbid us for Brian Wilson (when we were still deciding whether or not to sign him) if they wanted to just to have him hang around the clubhouse to tell jokes.

However, if it gets to be an open bidding war, it is not unheard of for one bidder to start putting in bids even though he has no intention of actually buying just to drive up the price for the other guy.

 

[calsnowskier]

OK, in this case I was trying to be a bit humorous/sarcastic/surreal/overspeculative/etc. I recall a Dodger troll here shortly after their TV deal was announced saying quite good-naturedly that they could outbid us for Brian Wilson (when we were still deciding whether or not to sign him) if they wanted to just to have him hang around the clubhouse to tell jokes.

However, if it gets to be an open bidding war, it is not unheard of for one bidder to start putting in bids even though he has no intention of actually buying just to drive up the price for the other guy.

on myself...

I agree 100% that the doggies will try to up his (and anyone else the Giants target) market value. Now THAT is good business...

 

[Mays-Fan]

I agree 100% that the doggies will try to up his (and anyone else the Giants target) market value. Now THAT is good business...

 

[Heathbar012]

As usual, this thread ends with confirmation of my disdain of all rich people from southern California.

 

[tzill]

As usual, this thread ends with confirmation of my disdain of all rich people from southern California.

As it should.

 

[SF11704]

Living here in NY I have seen quite aboit of what this thread has lead to. I have seen the both the NYY and the BOS teams bid on players that they didn't want just to stop the other team from acquiring them. There was one year the NYY had about 8 SP in tow because they blocked BOS for acquiring anything or anyone. In some cases they packaged them in a deal and traded them almost immediately. I guess it's possible to purchase what you don't need but than package it in another trade for something that you do need. Not a bad method if you actually had that in mind to begin with. The Doggies have so many problems of their own at the moment I'm not sure they would spend a lot of time and effort trying to block us. As someone stated earlier in the thread ... this is turing into a 5 team race. Between injuries, playing lower than expectations, playing above expectations ..... it has become a complete crap shoot! It's almost starting to appear that the first team that straightens themselves out could make a move on everyone else .... as of now it's the D-Backs that have me worried ....

 

[msgkings322]

Living here in NY I have seen quite aboit of what this thread has lead to. I have seen the both the NYY and the BOS teams bid on players that they didn't want just to stop the other team from acquiring them. There was one year the NYY had about 8 SP in tow because they blocked BOS for acquiring anything or anyone. In some cases they packaged them in a deal and traded them almost immediately. I guess it's possible to purchase what you don't need but than package it in another trade for something that you do need. Not a bad method if you actually had that in mind to begin with. The Doggies have so many problems of their own at the moment I'm not sure they would spend a lot of time and effort trying to block us. As someone stated earlier in the thread ... this is turing into a 5 team race. Between injuries, playing lower than expectations, playing above expectations ..... it has become a complete crap shoot! It's almost starting to appear that the first team that straightens themselves out could make a move on everyone else .... as of now it's the D-Backs that have me worried ....

Which is a little strange because the Dbacks have been playing even worse than we have the last 10 games+

Yasiel Puig is what has me thinking it's a 5 team race...really 4 because as hot as the Padres are now they just don't seem to have a team that can sustain a 90+ win pace all year.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Which is a little strange because the Dbacks have been playing even worse than we have the last 10 games+

Yasiel Puig is what has me thinking it's a 5 team race...really 4 because as hot as the Padres are now they just don't seem to have a team that can sustain a 90+ win pace all year.

Be careful - if Headley picks it up and performs like 2012, they won't go away quietly.

 

[SF11704]

Which is a little strange because the Dbacks have been playing even worse than we have the last 10 games+

Yasiel Puig is what has me thinking it's a 5 team race...really 4 because as hot as the Padres are now they just don't seem to have a team that can sustain a 90+ win pace all year.

The D-Backs worry me because i think they are the best team (outside of us) in the division. I think they are struggling just as we are. Puig is a real wildcard in my opinion. Just not sure if he's enough to carry a team that appears to have quite a few internal issues as well. I don't think the Padres can sustain this pace but then again I thought 2010 was a fluke for them as well. Every week I thought they would fold and every week they were still there.