Pence

[Reefer]

With Hunter Pence looking like the guy from a few years ago, will the Giants re-sign him? And what type of deal should the giants give him? Before the season I thought the Giants might try to get him to sign something cheaper than his almost 14mil a year by offering some long term security, but if he continues this year and ends up 25/25 with OPS+ 138 I'm sure someone will overpay him if he gets to free agency and as a fan I would be weary of anything longer than 4 years. A 5/75 would make me very nervous, but he really has been consistent this year for a team that obviously is going to need his bat next year. If things continue I think its gonna be a tough decision for Sabean.

 

[Mays-Fan]

IMHO, we need to resign him well before the end of the year, or we will likely lose him. Doing 5/75 now will seem like a bargain compared to waiting until the off- season.

 

[Upstater]

I am a huge Hunter Pence fan. I was able to watch him play in his first professional season when he was in Single A.

I don't want the Giants to sign him because I would love to Mets to. If you guys can make that happen it will be greatly appreciated.

 

[calsnowskier]

I have said this multiple times before...

I like him and I would love to keep him. However, his baseball skills will not age well. He is very much like Timmeh. He survives purely on athletic ability. Once age begins to catch up to him, even just a little bit, his production will plummet.

I would not want to sign him to anything longer than 3 years. And he will get longer than that on the open market.

I would love it if they were able to sign him up before he got to the open market, but what incentive is there for him to do that?

So long, Rev. It was nice knowing you.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I have said this multiple times before...

I like him and I would love to keep him. However, his baseball skills will not age well. He is very much like Timmeh. He survives purely on athletic ability. Once age begins to catch up to him, even just a little bit, his production will plummet.

I would not want to sign him to anything longer than 3 years. And he will get longer than that on the open market.

I would love it if they were able to sign him up before he got to the open market, but what incentive is there for him to do that?

So long, Rev. It was nice knowing you.

Not sure I understand your conclusion that Pence's "baseball skills will not age well", and "he is very much like Timmeh."

I don't think he is like Timmeh at all, not in the least. Timmeh is 5"11" and 165" soaking wet, and is called on to deliver 100+ 90mph pitches every 5 days. He is nearing the end of his useful life as a SP. Pence is 6'4" 220". Yes, he looks a bit awkward at times, but there is nothing chronically mechanically unsound in anything he does that would leave me to believe there will be any premature breakdown.

A five year contract may be a year too long for our tastes, but this is a market, and he will go to the highest, most irrational bidder on the open market. If he keeps having the kind of season he is having, he will easily surpass 5/75, on that I will bet you a nickel. And we have no clear alternative in the pipeline to take his place for the foreseeable future, much less replace Pagan and Blanco/Torres. Our OF pipeline is not good, at least at the higher levels, and we have the money now and the pressing need, now. Without him, our 2014 and beyond OF outlook is a crap shoot - mostly crap.

We need to extend him, now.

 

[Heathbar012]

I have said this multiple times before...

I like him and I would love to keep him. However, his baseball skills will not age well. He is very much like Timmeh. He survives purely on athletic ability. Once age begins to catch up to him, even just a little bit, his production will plummet.

I would not want to sign him to anything longer than 3 years. And he will get longer than that on the open market.

I would love it if they were able to sign him up before he got to the open market, but what incentive is there for him to do that?

So long, Rev. It was nice knowing you.

Not sure I understand your conclusion that Pence's "baseball skills will not age well", and "he is very much like Timmeh."

I don't think he is like Timmeh at all, not in the least. Timmeh is 5"11" and 165" soaking wet, and is called on to deliver 100+ 90mph pitches every 5 days. He is nearing the end of his useful life as a SP. Pence is 6'4" 220". Yes, he looks a bit awkward at times, but there is nothing chronically mechanically unsound in anything he does that would leave me to believe there will be any premature breakdown.

A five year contract may be a year too long for our tastes, but this is a market, and he will go to the highest, most irrational bidder on the open market. If he keeps having the kind of season he is having, he will easily surpass 5/75, on that I will bet you a nickel. And we have no clear alternative in the pipeline to take his place for the foreseeable future, much less replace Pagan and Blanco/Torres. Our OF pipeline is not good, at least at the higher levels, and we have the money now and the pressing need, now. Without him, our 2014 and beyond OF outlook is a crap shoot - mostly crap.

We need to extend him, now.

What Mays said, and I don't think that production will start to slip as much as it did last year until he is in his mid-30s. He will be an .830 to .860 OPS player with good range, a great arm and some questionable angles (though, hopefully, fewer with age) for the next five years. Plus, if he really works on some cerebral parts of his game, he could become an even better base stealer and get more walks. As far as position players, the big question over the next half-decade will be with Belt and Crawford's developments, Panda's belly development (which may lead to Buster at 3rd) and if Gary Brown is a major leaguer (I think Joe Panik will be a perfect transition from Scoots). That is a lot of question marks in important positions to ignore a player that is back to being a consistent performer in an environment he enjoys. He just turned 30 in April. Give some hope to us old folks.

 

[calsnowskier]

I 100% disagree with both of you. Pence is the most awkward, mechanically challenged player I have ever seen. He is a gym-rat, and a superior athlete, so he is able to overcome this at his age. But when his reaction time begins to slow, even at a minute level, his lack of mechanics will cost him.

Timmeh relied on his gymnastics ability to pitch. Now that he is a little older, and his joints do not have the same snap as the did, his performance has plummeted. He is not awkward like Pence, but he is SOOO unconventional that the way he did/does things does not translate to a less exceptional body.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I 100% disagree with both of you. Pence is the most awkward, mechanically challenged player I have ever seen. He is a gym-rat, and a superior athlete, so he is able to overcome this at his age. But when his reaction time begins to slow, even at a minute level, his lack of mechanics will cost him.

Timmeh relied on his gymnastics ability to pitch. Now that he is a little older, and his joints do not have the same snap as the did, his performance has plummeted. He is not awkward like Pence, but he is SOOO unconventional that the way he did/does things does not translate to a less exceptional body.

Actually, if anything, I think Pence is TOO hyper right now. He may actually benefit from the fractional slowing of reaction time that the next few years may bring. Seriously.

Plus his gym-rat nature and virtual absence of body fat will benefit him beyond the normal peak years of an MLB OF, unlike Senor Creosote. Maybe we move him to LF in 2-3 years, but I don't think that will upset anyone.

 

[Reefer]

totally agree with Cal that I'm afraid he won't age well, but I don't think that affects him for another 3 years or so. Thats why anything 5 years or more would make me a bit nervous. Plus I think the Giants are now almost forced to sign him. Pablo cannot be counted on for a full season and you have to give some type of protection for Buster. With the pitching staff beginning to wear down, the offense is going to be counted on more the next few years. I'd try and get something done now before he reaches FA. If he gets to talk to other teams, I think someone is going to offer too much and too many years for the Giants to match.

 

[calsnowskier]

totally agree with Cal that I'm afraid he won't age well, but I don't think that affects him for another 3 years or so. Thats why anything 5 years or more would make me a bit nervous. Plus I think the Giants are now almost forced to sign him. Pablo cannot be counted on for a full season and you have to give some type of protection for Buster. With the pitching staff beginning to wear down, the offense is going to be counted on more the next few years. I'd try and get something done now before he reaches FA. If he gets to talk to other teams, I think someone is going to offer too much and too many years for the Giants to match.

This is why I expect Pence to be gone.

If you and I both expect that he can get more elsewhere, why do you think he and his agent will not realize this? And if you do not think his agent has not already talked to every ther GM in the game to at least gauge the interest in his client, than I have some ocean-front property in Arizona that I am trying to move. Give me a call.

 

[Mays-Fan]

This is why I expect Pence to be gone.

If you and I both expect that he can get more elsewhere, why do you think he and his agent will not realize this? And if you do not think his agent has not already talked to every ther GM in the game to at least gauge the interest in his client, than I have some ocean-front property in Arizona that I am trying to move. Give me a call.

You are certainly correct. Surely every team that will play the higher end of the free-agent market has talked to Pence's agent about a long-term contract. I agree - no doubt.

However, the agent also knows that a lot of teams blow smoke, change their minds, misdirect, give false hope, etc. Also, I would have to believe that Pence really likes it in SF. They're the defending champs, he plays a huge role on and off the field, he's adored by a rabid and devoted fan base, the org is committed to long-term excellence, SF is a very unique city in a very unique state, etc, etc. At some point for many people it becomes about more than just money. At that level, does one's lifestyle change if one gets a 10% larger/longer offer somewhere else?

Also bear in mind that he has played at least 154 games every year for the past 5 years and every game this year. He stays in fantastic shape and I don't see any of that changing for several years.

If we can put a fair offer on the table now, say, 4/60, 5/75, whatever, as the saying goes - "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" for Pence. It's an offer we can afford, and we need him now because there is no one else in the pipeline, and I think there is a good chance he will take it.

If we have to go in to the FA market for an OF next year (otherwise we are looking at Torres/Pagan/Blanco - eesh), we will have to spend a boatload anyway to get someone near Pence's level.

 

[tzill]

With Hunter Pence looking like the guy from a few years ago, will the Giants re-sign him? And what type of deal should the giants give him? Before the season I thought the Giants might try to get him to sign something cheaper than his almost 14mil a year by offering some long term security, but if he continues this year and ends up 25/25 with OPS+ 138 I'm sure someone will overpay him if he gets to free agency and as a fan I would be weary of anything longer than 4 years. A 5/75 would make me very nervous, but he really has been consistent this year for a team that obviously is going to need his bat next year. If things continue I think its gonna be a tough decision for Sabean.

This is a GREAT question. He's a career 118 OPS+ guy who puts up between 3.5 and 4.0 WAR. He'll likely exceed those averages this year. He's also a glue guy and a big part of the G's culture. He is healthy and will give you 650 PA a year. He's a legit middle of the order bat. He plays RF at AT&T well.

Downsides: a slump last year (but he still drove in runs) and he's a mechanical disaster...hard to see that form aging well. He' 30, still in his prime but due to start trending down.

It is a quandry and we have cash. I don't know that I'd go five years; I'd prefer 3/50 but would probably settle for 4/60

 

[tzill]

Not sure I understand your conclusion that Pence's "baseball skills will not age well", and "he is very much like Timmeh."

I don't think he is like Timmeh at all, not in the least. Timmeh is 5"11" and 165" soaking wet, and is called on to deliver 100+ 90mph pitches every 5 days. He is nearing the end of his useful life as a SP. Pence is 6'4" 220". Yes, he looks a bit awkward at times, but there is nothing chronically mechanically unsound in anything he does that would leave me to believe there will be any premature breakdown.

A five year contract may be a year too long for our tastes, but this is a market, and he will go to the highest, most irrational bidder on the open market. If he keeps having the kind of season he is having, he will easily surpass 5/75, on that I will bet you a nickel. And we have no clear alternative in the pipeline to take his place for the foreseeable future, much less replace Pagan and Blanco/Torres. Our OF pipeline is not good, at least at the higher levels, and we have the money now and the pressing need, now. Without him, our 2014 and beyond OF outlook is a crap shoot - mostly crap.

We need to extend him, now.

I don't know if I agree 100% with that. Seems to me that our org strength in the upper minors is at OF. Fresno has Pegs/Kiesh/Brown as well as Gillaspie. Richmond's strength is OF and RP with Parker/Lollis/Herrera heading the show.

I'm not saying we have a Bryce Harper or Mike Trout, but the org strength in the upper minors is OF (and in the lower minors it's SP and RP).

Well, and of course there's catching at Richmond...

 

[tzill]

What Mays said, and I don't think that production will start to slip as much as it did last year until he is in his mid-30s. He will be an .830 to .860 OPS player with good range, a great arm and some questionable angles (though, hopefully, fewer with age) for the next five years. Plus, if he really works on some cerebral parts of his game, he could become an even better base stealer and get more walks. As far as position players, the big question over the next half-decade will be with Belt and Crawford's developments, Panda's belly development (which may lead to Buster at 3rd) and if Gary Brown is a major leaguer (I think Joe Panik will be a perfect transition from Scoots). That is a lot of question marks in important positions to ignore a player that is back to being a consistent performer in an environment he enjoys. He just turned 30 in April. Give some hope to us old folks.

This. Can't discount this. Not for Pence; I think if there ever was a "home discount" he'd be the guy to give one. We dig him, he digs us.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'd do a 4 year deal, we would probably regret that 4th year rate but that's just the way things are now in baseball. Almost every long term deal in baseball is going to look bad at the end of it because the amount of money they are getting now just keeps growing....

Barry Zito is the exception, he got better as the contract aged.

 

[Heathbar012]

I'd do a 4 year deal, we would probably regret that 4th year rate but that's just the way things are now in baseball. Almost every long term deal in baseball is going to look bad at the end of it because the amount of money they are getting now just keeps growing....

Barry Zito is the exception, he got better as the contract aged.

This. The funny thing is if everything that you predict actually occurs, he probably comes back to the Giants after that four-year deal because Sabes will be banking on the rebound year at a discounted rate.

 

[tzill]

Just checked on Tommy Joseph...he's been sent down to A+ from AAA where he was hitting .209.

Clearly, no Susac

 

[Heathbar012]

This. Can't discount this. Not for Pence; I think if there ever was a "home discount" he'd be the guy to give one. We dig him, he digs us.

Certainly, and I think it depends on the locker room remaining relatively the same. I don't think any of us see drastic changes on the horizon, so that shouldn't be an issue.

Beyond The City, it seems he has built some important friendships on this team. That might change a little if Timmy is shipped out (and The Beard doesn't come back in some capacity... assistant to Mark Gardner? I can dream). However, one player a team doesn't make, so same goes for one personality. Hunter doesn't seem like a super-mellow guy, though, and with The Freak and BWeezy gone (still hopeful they can both go to the pen... again dreaming), that locker room would have some much more even-tempered leaders. That may end up being a good thing for everyone, though.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I don't know if I agree 100% with that. Seems to me that our org strength in the upper minors is at OF. Fresno has Pegs/Kiesh/Brown as well as Gillaspie. Richmond's strength is OF and RP with Parker/Lollis/Herrera heading the show.

I'm not saying we have a Bryce Harper or Mike Trout, but the org strength in the upper minors is OF (and in the lower minors it's SP and RP).

Well, and of course there's catching at Richmond...

I agree there are some decent OF prospects, but there is a big difference between unproven prospects with virtually no MLB experience, and a guy like Pence. The prospects may bear fruit 2-4 years from now, but are they ready for 2014? Likely not, not to produce like Pence.

If we don't sign Pence, where are we going OF-wise in 2014? Torres/Pagan/Blanco, with Perez/Abreu/Kieschnick as subs? That is not contender-level quality.

 

[Heathbar012]

Just checked on Tommy Joseph...he's been sent down to A+ from AAA where he was hitting .209.

Clearly, no Susac

Yeah. No Zach Wheeler situation here. And the Zach Wheeler situation wouldn't even be a situation if it seemed like Sabes ever made an effort to re-sign Beltran. Either way, butterfly effect and all that. Though, it would be nice to be bringing up a Top-10 Prospect in the next few days to sure up this rotation. Such is life. Fuck you, Scott Cousins, wherever you are.