Over/under projected wins for each team

[DragonfromTO]

Yeah, I thought that was a huge step back for them, so I guess that drop is entirely based on no longer having the intagibles of Jeter

It's probably based more on the grit and heart of Pythagoras. They were outscored by their opposition by 31 runs last year.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Mark me down for an over on The Tribe and Rangers and for an under on the Cubs.

Also think the Twins are a nice over, but Im not betting on it.

I agree, I think Cleveland is the most obvious "over" bet on the board.

 

[navamind]

Nats are the only team projected to break 90? There might be a couple of good bets at the top of the list like Anaheim.

And take the under on the Red Sox.

Not many projections are going to have a team winning 90+ games. This is very common among projection systems (i.e. PECOTA).

 

[navamind]

I agree that the Angels seem likely to win at least 88 games. I read somewhere that Jared Weaver put on a lot of weight in order to try and improve his stamina. Thought that kind of unconventional for a pitcher his age. Curious to see how that works.

Weaver's been getting worse every year. His walk rate's been rising, he doesn't strike guys out anymore, and for a guy who pitches in a pitcher friendly ballpark (and division), he gives up a lot of home runs. Not to mention he's 32 years old and has a decent workload under his belt. The ballpark he pitches in just masks his regression.

 

[navamind]

under on the O's

 

[OutlawImmortal]

Certainly possible.

But how often have we seen teams completely rebuild in one year only to see the completely implode? It just happened last year with Toronto.

I think you have rate SD as a contender. But to give them the division when there are already two solid teams there is a tall prediction.

The Miami Marlins too, there are more examples of failure than success.

I think the Dodgers and Giants will be good again this year, but as we saw last year, the Giants step it up a notch when October rolls around. I still like the Dodgers to win the division again this year.

 

[night]

I'd take the over on Atlanta at 73.5. I don't expect the Braves to be playoff contenders but you have to appreciate how epic the meltdown they had in the 2nd half of the season was last year but still managed to pull 79 wins out of their asses.

 

[David_son]

I think the Mets will be at .500 maybe slightly above. It all depends on health though and that is tricky to predict.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I think the Mets will be at .500 maybe slightly above. It all depends on health though and that is tricky to predict.

Yeah, they're a tough bet no matter which side you take. 81 is probably dead on for them.

DragonfromTO sed:
It's probably based more on the grit and heart of Pythagoras. They were outscored by their opposition by 31 runs last year.

LOL...here's where the hardcore Jeets fan goes "yeah, see how valuable he was to the team last year in helping them overcome that Patagonia-thingy? Re2pect!

Navamind say:
Not many projections are going to have a team winning 90+ games. This is very common among projection systems (i.e. PECOTA).

Why is that? Aren't there at least 3 or 4 teams that break 90 every season? There were 6 last year; every division winner hit at least 90. (Clearly I don't pay much attention to these kinds of things.)

 

[TDs3nOut]

Why is that? Aren't there at least 3 or 4 teams that break 90 every season? There were 6 last year; every division winner hit at least 90. (Clearly I don't pay much attention to these kinds of things.)

I think that the aim of the sports book is to set the over/under number of wins at a number that attracts approximately equal bets on both sides. Setting the number too high inhibits bettors from betting the over.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Weaver's been getting worse every year. His walk rate's been rising, he doesn't strike guys out anymore, and for a guy who pitches in a pitcher friendly ballpark (and division), he gives up a lot of home runs. Not to mention he's 32 years old and has a decent workload under his belt. The ballpark he pitches in just masks his regression.

Agree with your assessment of Weaver. I'm skeptical that putting on weight is going to turn around his performance.

 

[tducey]

Going to be an interesting season. Taking the over on the Padres for sure.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I think that the aim of the sports book is to set the over/under number of wins at a number that attracts approximately equal bets on both sides. Setting the number too high inhibits bettors from betting the over.

I totally get that when you're talking point spreads, I just don't get how they only have one team breaking 90 and there are generally 3-6 who do. Seems like they would lose quite a bit, but I guess they know what they're doing.

 

[molsaniceman]

I totally get that when you're talking point spreads, I just don't get how they only have one team breaking 90 and there are generally 3-6 who do. Seems like they would lose quite a bit, but I guess they know what they're doing.

Gambling is not about what Vegas thinks teams will do its about how they think betters will bet

 

[Montalban]

The Atlantis sports book has posted this list of over/under wins for each team for the upcoming season.



NLO/U
ALO/UNationals93
Angels87.5Dodgers91
Tigers86.5Cardinals87.5
Red Sox86Pirates85.5
Mariners85Giants85
Orioles84.5Padres84
Blue Jays83.5Cubs81.5
Royals83Marlins81.5
Athletics82.5Mets81
White Sox82Brewers80
Indians81Reds79
Yankees80Braves73.5
Rays77.5D'backs72.5
Rangers76.5Rockies70.5
Astros73.5Phillies67
Twins68.5

I'm only interested in the Giants and I think 85 is a reasonable number for them. I put 100.00 in Vegas on 83 for them though.

 

[gowazzu02]

Well this is the most excited and hopeful i've been about the Mariners in about a decade...... So everything I know about that organization tells me to hammer the UNDER! battered Fan Syndrome like you read about.

 

[navamind]

I'd take the over on Atlanta at 73.5. I don't expect the Braves to be playoff contenders but you have to appreciate how epic the meltdown they had in the 2nd half of the season was last year but still managed to pull 79 wins out of their asses.

Braves lineup looks crappy, but they should hit much better than the 2014 Braves did in September. They batted .206/.267/.291 with 59 runs scored in 25 games. Even a team of 9 Yuniesky Betancourts could do better than that.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Royals win total should mostly mirror your thoughts on the Royals offense.

Will Hosmer, Rios, and Morales bounce back?

 

[Cyder]

The Atlantis sports book has posted this list of over/under wins for each team for the upcoming season.



NLO/U
ALO/UNationals93
Angels87.5Dodgers91
Tigers86.5Cardinals87.5
Red Sox86Pirates85.5
Mariners85Giants85
Orioles84.5Padres84
Blue Jays83.5Cubs81.5
Royals83Marlins81.5
Athletics82.5Mets81
White Sox82Brewers80
Indians81Reds79
Yankees80Braves73.5
Rays77.5D'backs72.5
Rangers76.5Rockies70.5
Astros73.5Phillies67
Twins68.5

The Yanks will be interesting. I can see them winning 90 if all goes well or winning 70 if it doesn't. Just about everyone on the team is a question mark

 

[Cyder]

Gambling is not about what Vegas thinks teams will do its about how they think betters will bet

Yep, they're trying to get the money split evenly.