OT: Doughty Trade Rumor

[PuckinUgly57]

For Karlsson. Really?

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=91525

Good old Ecklund, I completely forgot this asshat was still around.

 

[LAKINGSFAN]

I may be in the minority but I would be up to trading Doughty if he isnt willing to give some kind of hometown discount. Dont get me wrong, he is a top notch D but I am getting tired of the Kings having their hands tied due to the cap. His trade value is crazy right now and if it doesnt look like he is going to sign or ask for way too much then lets cut our ties and see what we can get.

 

[Fox4Kings]

The article says trade Doughty and then have the money to sign Karlsson. Is Karlsson going to be much cheaper than Doughty?

 

[PuckinUgly57]

I may be in the minority but I would be up to trading Doughty if he isnt willing to give some kind of hometown discount. Dont get me wrong, he is a top notch D but I am getting tired of the Kings having their hands tied due to the cap. His trade value is crazy right now and if it doesnt look like he is going to sign or ask for way too much then lets cut our ties and see what we can get.

Doughty is not going to give the Kings a discount, he has been clear in his intentions that he expects full market value, does not want to go through another rebuild and if necessary will test the market although his 100% intention is to stay in LA.

I agree with him on all accounts that these are his wishes and rights - he has earned those by his play, team awards and individual awards. That said, it is up to him to offer any type of discount but were I Blake and management I am not expecting one. In fact, I am going to him with top dollar right off the bat so there are no misunderstandings and the intent is there that he is a big part of this team. My expectation is that he will get a similar deal to Kopitar's.

On the flip side, you are correct in the sense that if Doughty's demands are ridiculous he should be moved but also in play is the Kings and the direction they are headed. This season is absolutely critical not only for the Kings to make the POs but to have a string showing - third Cup or not - to prove to the fans and to arguably the best defender in the NHL who happens to be on your team and will be a GIII UFA next summer that the Kings are a legitimate franchise determined to win every season.

 

[PuckinUgly57]

The article says trade Doughty and then have the money to sign Karlsson. Is Karlsson going to be much cheaper than Doughty?

Personally I think he will be. He cannot control a game like Doughty does but his offensive skills are far superior to Doughty's. Let me correct myself - in a logical world he should be cheaper than Doughty by at least $1 million because he is not the total package.

But there is always a GM who is willing to pay whatever price to get that player. I'd have to take a look at Cap Friendly but off the top of my head I don't think there are more than 10 teams who can afford him, and of those 10 I would guess 3-4 ren't real contenders (AZ for example) so it males no sense to sign a guy like him unless the other pieces are in place.

 

[Fox4Kings]

I know you, and I agree, would think so, I just wonder about the perception around the league. Karlsson is as equally a big of name, if not bigger, that Doughty. He gets all the points. He puts probably more butts in the seats than Doughty would, just from an average fan standpoint. For me hands down I would much rather throw money at Doughty, I just think it will be interesting what the contracts end up looking like. I kinda feel like it may be around $1million or less difference, which if that's the case the moves make no sense, unless Doughty just wants to leave.

 

[PuckinUgly57]

Karlsson is definitely a bigger name and that is because of the points he puts up and he plays in Canada. No question.

Putting butts in the seats is what matters to an owner. It's estimated that teams make no money during the season and that the POs are where they break even/profit. Each home game after April is worth about $2 million in ticket sales alone and then you have concessions, parking, and all that stuff.

But to a GM that isn't his first concern, it's how does that player improve my team and what will it cost (assets, not money)? That's how I would approach it anyway were I a GM, if they are entertaining an expensive player (like these 2) the money situation has a framework already; otherwise they wouldn't be looking at said player in the first place.

IMO Karlsson would not improve LA; not because he wouldn't rack up the points but because the Kings have committed (at least while Blake and Stevens are around) that they want to hold tight to the defensive structure game Murray/Sutter instilled and the checking game but open it up offensively. Karlsson doesn't meet criteria number 1 and 2 at all so by moving Doughty and replacing with Karlsson you are actually hurting your team because he isn't the type of player that fits into the big picture.

Square peg, round hole which is why I think Ecklund's rumor is full of shit, he obviously doesn't know the Kings and their direction.

 

[LAKINGSFAN]

I will start by saying that Doughty is worth whatever he gets on the open market (or if the Kings resign him).
What I dont understand is the mentality of I want to get the most money I can even if if handcuffs the team to make other moves, and then demand to be a cup contender. I am not singling Doughty out but more of the mentality.

 

[PuckinUgly57]

A lot of it is just negotiating tactics to get the most they can but many do sign for less than what the public expectation is. This is time to set the foundation of discussions for these high profile guys and that's what Doughty and Karlsson are doing. I've read posts and whatnot and it seems the consensus is that Doughty is being pegged for asking for about $12 million - not going to happen IMO.

The cap is supposed to increase between $78-82 million for 2018-19 which is dependent on the NHLPA triggering the 5% growth factor but a decision on that isn't likely until June. At those figures the max a player can make will be between $15.6 and $16.4 million per season, which is shocking when you think about it.

Any team would be stupid to spend 20% of their cap on one guy, Doughty, McJesus, Crosby, whoever. You are absolutely setting yourself up for disaster must like we are seeing now in Chicago and Edmonton coming close to those numbers for players like Toews, Kane, McDavid. Too many contracts in the double digits and you can't field a decent team.

Put simply, there are 2 camps on the escalator debate within the NHLPA: guys who need new contracts like it (more money in the pot, thus larger contracts) and will vote for it, guys who have contracts generally don't (more money put in escrow and out of their pocket thus smaller real dollars) will not. Doughty is under contract until June 30 2019, so forecasting is part of the deal for players in his situation. The cap has risen from $64.3 million just 5 years ago to $75 million now, the minimum I see it being in 2019-20 is about $80 million barring the escalator.

Personally I think they will trigger the clause this summer, the league is making more money in HRR (Hockey Related Revenue) than ever before and the players will want more of that share. This is good for high profile guys like Doughty and Karlsson but also other GIII UFAs that summer like Rinne, Bobrovsky, Seguin, etc. Summer 2019 is going to be nuts in terms of big names (barring extensions).

Guys have taken discounts before (Williams when he left here and when he also left Washington, Stamkos for example) but those are also guys who either have nothing to prove and are in a mentor role now (Williams) or guys who haven't won anything and leave money on the table in good faith that the GM will use to improve other areas of the roster so they can win something (Stamkos).

Doughty is neither of those, he is in the middle and will be an effective defender for at least another 5 years so I don't expect that from him. I still think he will resign in LA this summer to an 8 year deal between $80-84 million.

 

[davnlaguna]

More goals going in, both for and against.

 

[Kings4OT]

More goals going in, both for and against.

Are more goals going in? Kings are 3rd in the league in GA and really only 3 behind 1st in GA and have played 2 more games. I know we would like Quick to get a SO every game but that unrealistic. Last season the Kings gave up 201 GA in 82 games....Sure it would be easy for LA to give up 35 goals in 15 games to tie last seasons total, but that's hardly what I consider "more goals going in". Now if you want to talk about more high quality chances against, then yes I'm onboard. But that's mostly from guys like Pearson throwing the puck blindly into the middle of the ice ...he did that twice last night and I have seen it more then ever this season.....its like they all took pointers from Muffin on how to create scoring chances against out of nothing

 

[Kings4OT]

I cant stand Karlsson, sure he can get points but that's it. Perhaps paired with a speedy SAH D that could cover his ass every shift would be something to try.

DD, that's a tough one. He is definitely "worth" whatever he can get but I wouldn't want the Kings to do that. As pointed out it kills a franchise.

I don't blame players for squeezing every penny they can out of their contract. Each player has a small amount of time to get what they can. Its just as selfish for fans to want players to take a pay cut as it is for a player to demand a raise. A players career can end anytime and many pro athletes end up with massive bills, medical problems and a short longevity of life. While I know the rest of us would be much more careful with our $$ that we would be ok with losing a million or more for zero guarantee to win the cup.

 

[PuckinUgly57]

I think he was referring to if Karlsson was a King. And he's right, which is also illustrates my previous point that that is not the direction LA wants to go because their roster is not constructed for an end to end game and they want to keep the defensive structure of their game while adding a little bit of offense.

I think this team in general is solid defensively but a big reason for that is Doughty and his ability to either get the puck out of the defensive zone or some of his reads and plays which are elite. He completely shut down Ovechkin last night in the one on one battles and the team in general did a good job staying on him. Karlsson can't even cover guys like Pearson (yes, that was an ugly TO. Both he and Toffoli have been more than guiltyof that this season than other forwards it seems).

I can count maybe 3-4 blocked shots from the left dot by Forbort, Martinez, Phaneuf and Lewis that didn't make it near the net which was obviously part of the game plan.

 

[PuckinUgly57]

I cant stand Karlsson, sure he can get points but that's it. Perhaps paired with a speedy SAH D that could cover his ass every shift would be something to try.

He had a steady partner in Marc Method but they exposed him in the Expansion Draft, was claimed by Vegas and then flipped to Dallas. He is a good SAH defender, character guy. Missed about half the season with a knee but came back about a month ago. Even with Methot though Karlsson struggled on the defensive side. Methot isn't exactly fleet of foot so that played a part in it but watching those two, Karlsson just doesn't think defense first.

Ben Bishop had this to say about getting McDonough instead of Karlsson:

"Karlsson is great. But in the playoffs, you want more of a shutdown guy. (McDonagh) can do everything — plays the power play, penalty kill, last minute (of games). Now you've got four (defensemen) you can put out there in any situation."

I don't think he meant it to be a slight on Karlsson but he's pretty much speaking the truth. Karlsson isn't used in critical situations much and his zone starts are OZ heavy. He doesn't get much PK time either. They tried him with Codi Ceci after Methot left and that was a disaster, and now they are trying him with Frederik Claesson who is more of a depth defender drafted in 2011.

The point I'm making is he is very hard to pair with and there aren't a lot of options it seems.

 

[davnlaguna]

Are more goals going in? Kings are 3rd in the league in GA and really only 3 behind 1st in GA and have played 2 more games. I know we would like Quick to get a SO every game but that unrealistic. Last season the Kings gave up 201 GA in 82 games....Sure it would be easy for LA to give up 35 goals in 15 games to tie last seasons total, but that's hardly what I consider "more goals going in". Now if you want to talk about more high quality chances against, then yes I'm onboard. But that's mostly from guys like Pearson throwing the puck blindly into the middle of the ice ...he did that twice last night and I have seen it more then ever this season.....its like they all took pointers from Muffin on how to create scoring chances against out of nothing

I meant that Karlsson scores more but gives up more than Doughty
Kings are a +29 in goals. The Senators are a -51. I know that is a team number
Also looking at +\-( I know useless stat) Doughty has s 15th in defensemen Karlsson is 291 out of 293

 

[Kings4OT]

ya I totally read that wrong haha. +/- is kind of useless and doesn't tell the whole story but it does tell part of the story.....Like JMFJ, we know the - was telling the story.

There is a reason teams like the Oil and Isles with all their scoring talent have a hard time winning. Those huge point getter are nice, but they need to help the other side of the ice as well

 

[Kings4OT]

derail

Carter looks great, glad to get Lewis back....but would rather sit someone not named Reider...like Amadio. Liking Thomson a lot. I think the Kings have a very solid club right now.

I really don't see them improving next year over this year other than settling in on the style of play, currently they have speed....good D and skill. Very good mix. Are other teams better, sure but the Kings have everything needed to make a run

 

[PuckinUgly57]

Plus/minus is a joke of stat unless you actually watch the player, not to mention what type of team surrounds him. Crappy defense? Shitty goalie? Lazy back checking coasters? Your plus/minus is going to take a hit.

Johnson for example played on pretty solid defensive teams in LA the last 3-4 years of his career here and never finished in the positive - I mean like ever as a King and only once in his 13 year career.

That is telling when the Kings saw a significant reduction in GA for 6 straight years(283/2006-07 to 179/2011-12 when Johnson was traded midway), they tightened up defensively, Quick was on the rise, Kopitar was evolving, Doughty was already solid and Johnson had guys on the roster like Scuderi, Greene, O'Donnell, etc to learn from. He simply sucks at defense no matter who he is paired at so the brutal career plus/minus (-115) is well warranted.

On the other side of the coin, Lidstrom's plus/minus was always inflated because of the teams and talent he had around him but even if they weren't there you saw how smart he was defensively. It didn't matter who he was paired with.

Taking a deeper dive if you watch the players you get an idea of how aware that player is and team play influencing that number diminishes.

 

[PuckinUgly57]

derail

Carter looks great, glad to get Lewis back....but would rather sit someone not named Reider...like Amadio. Liking Thomson a lot. I think the Kings have a very solid club right now.

Carter looks like he hasn't missed a beat, I was thinking to myself last night before Faust mentioned it that he is absolutely buzzing out there (OT: I'm really starting to not like that guy. He sounds like a cheesy game show host) and making things happen. Good to see because the Kings need him to be remotely successful.

Amadio: I disagree, I think he has done a great job in that 3C role. He is doing what they envisioned Shore to do, which is be responsible in his end but also generate some offensive chances. Amadio can skate, has good hands and vision and woks hard. They are grooming him to be that Stoll type player, he played that two way game in Ontario and looks like he is getting more and more comfortable at the NHL level.He made Shore completely expendable and has a better skill set.

Thompson is a very good depth player, mentioned in the Trade Deadline thread he is underrated and you guys will be pleasantly surprised. I've watched him for years at various stops (Tampa Bay, Anaheim, Ottawa, etc.) and he may not rack up points but is a solid upper end depth player. Pulled a pretty good toe drag last night although that isn't his forte. Guys like him tend to make some big plays at key moments, hoping that works out in the POs for LA (assuming they make it).

I didn't even realize last night was the first time all season the Kings had a 100% healthy lineup. Hard to believe after 67 games but this year is definitely more competitive than last year's team. Last year they completely mailed it in after the deadline and it was embarrassing.

I really don't see them improving next year over this year other than settling in on the style of play, currently they have speed....good D and skill. Very good mix. Are other teams better, sure but the Kings have everything needed to make a run

I agree, they may not have the names they once did but this team has the pieces and depth to make a good run. Just have to get in and be on a roll, anything can happen then. You back into the POs, you are going down in a ball of flames fast.

 

[Kings4OT]

I wasn't saying Amadio sucks, but when they pulled Reider out of the lineup for Lewis I was disappointed. I think Reider has speed the Kings need most every night and would like to see him start to click with the team. I think you have to keep Cliffy in the lineup for the reasons we saw last night....that pretty much leaves Amadio or benching Pearson or TT which I would be ok with as well



Oh, I agree on Faust.....he is embarrassing to listen too