Ohlendorf, Locke, and Meek

[magnumo]

Ohlendorf: It was only one game, but it was great to see Ohlendorf pitch well last night. I had high hopes for him after the Nady trade, and his 2009 season suggested that he could be a pretty good starter, with upside. Injuries and bad luck have taken their toll over the past couple of seasons, but there may be a decent chance that Ohlendorf can bounce back to his 2009 performance level. Again, one good start doesn't prove much, but is cause for hope. If he continues to pitch well, the Pirates will need to give a little more thought about whether they will go to arbitration with him again.

Locke: After pitching reasonably well while repeating at Altoona this season, he was good in 5 starts following promotion to Indianapolis, earning himself a September call-up. Again, it was only one game, but he did OK in his first start as a Pirate. Seems to me that tonight's start (and any additional starts he gets prior to season's end) will give us a clue (and maybe additional hope) about possibilities for next year's rotation. An effective Locke might do two things: convince the Pirates to let Maholm walk; and convince me that the McLouth trade was a big win for the Pirates (regardless of whether Nate comes back strong).

Meek: It's good to see him back in the bullpen, despite his shaky outing last night. (I was watching on MLB's Gameday. According to their graphic, he threw a number of strikes which were called balls.) Be that as it may, Meek's velocity seemed to be up a little from his previous outings. Hopefully, he'll continue to gain strength and velocity (and avoid further injury) leading into the 2012 season. There can be no doubt that a rejuvenated Meek would help solidify the Pirates' bullpen for 2012..... another reason for hope.

As was demonstrated yet again by the Pirates' first half surge, good pitching is the most important component of winning baseball. The offense has been pretty weak all season, but the consistently good performance of the rotation, with equally good support from the bullpen, carried the team to its high point in mid-July. We all know that the pitching has been pretty bad (worst in the NL) since the break, and the team has had equally bad performance in terms of wins and losses.

So..... Ohlendorf, Locke, and Meek could mean a LOT to the 2012 Pirates. At least they're a source of hope at this point.

 

[thecrow124]

I always thought Ohlendorf would be much better suited for a bullpen role, and while he may start next season in the rotation I don't see him holding that spot all year unless he really performs well. Morton, Karstens and McDonald are locks for the rotation next year. Lincoln is also at this point as close to a lock as there is. I don't think NH really wants to bring back Maholm, especially at 9 million or more per year, which is why we are seeing Locke. If Owens hadn't gotten hurt, we would be seeing him as well, regardless of his numbers at AAA.
The problem is, Locke isn't really ready and Owens will be coming off of injury, so Ohlendorf has a shot at the rotation, between him and Correia. The problem t=with that is it gives us a 5 man rotation of righties. Not only does it not play well in baseball, it plays horribly in our own stadium. So I think Ohlendorf has to be dominant or we will see either Locke or Owens out of spring training in the rotation.

On a different note, I think Jared Hughes has made a good showing for himself and is inline for a bullpen job next season as well. Along with Moskos, Meek, Leroux, and Resop we could have a pretty good pen that isn't all that expensive.

 

[smokeyburgess]

IMO if management is really serious about making the necessary improvements to contend next year, they've got to get a top-of-the-line starter to anchor the pitching staff. As it is, the starting staff is fair-good at best, and that's not going to be good enough to make the playoffs or even achieve a winning season. The staff is simply too inconsistent, and there are no prospective "aces" in the minors that can be counted on to make any significant contributions any time soon.

The obvious problem, of course, is enticing a stud hurler to sign with the Pirates, especially with the offense they currently have. So we also need to make a serious bid for a power-hitting first baseman, third baseman, and/or outfielder as well. I haven't given up on Alvarez yet, so depending on whether the team acquires a first baseman or third baseman, he should be given a shot at the other position.

In short, I think the Pirates should follow the Brewers' lead. They need to be willing to spend some big bucks to go to the next level, regardless of their being a "small-market" team or not. Pirate fans have waited far too long -- it's time to put up or shut up.

 

[element1286]

Locke's command has been terrible, which is odd because that was his biggest strength.

 

[magnumo]

Signals on Ohlendorf

The Pittsburgh media is starting to hint that Ohlendorf may not be tendered in his second year of arbitration eligibility. Although I was shocked that he won his case last year, I think it would be a mistake for the Pirates to non-tender him this year.

Pirates Notebook: Club record is established for players used (scroll down)

Bucs GM Huntington unsure about Ohlendorf - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

I have increasingly strong feelings that this team is gonna be way short of pitchers who can get people out in 2012, and Ohlendorf has demonstrated his ability to do that when he's healthy.

 

[Illinest]

I think its becoming abundantly obvious now why I've always said that wed be stupid not to take maholms option.

 

[element1286]

I think its becoming abundantly obvious now why I've always said that wed be stupid not to take maholms option.

I guess it depends on his health as well. But yea, I want him on the team next year. Ahead of Ohlendorf for sure.

 

[magnumo]

In Dejan's chat yesterday, he says that there is no chance the Pirates tender Ohlendorf..... and that they should pick up Maholm's option.

Here is the relevant Q&A on Ohlendorf:

Invention Guru: Based on MLB most equitable arbitration system, how big of a raise do you think Ohlendorf will receive for next year?

Dejan Kovacevic: The arbitration model actually does allow for a pay cut. Jody Gerut took one with the Pirates once, if memory serves. If ever there were an example for there being another, this would be it. That said, no way he gets tendered. Just no chance.

And the one on Maholm:

ZEB: I'm going to miss Paul Maholm. I imagine a team like the Yankees or Red Sox will love an inning eating, mostly injury free lefty for a reasonable price.

Dejan Kovacevic: I know that exercising a $10 million option on Maholm sounds unsavory, but let me broach this here: It's only one guaranteed year, which is two fewer than you'll have to give on the open market for a similar pitcher. It's about market rate, as the Pirates found out in their pursuit of Jorge de la Rosa. And it's the one year where you can be certain that any athlete is going to be supremely motivated, looking for his first huge career payday. Why not take it?

Dejan Kovacevic chat transcript - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

 

[smokeyburgess]

God help Ohlendorf tonight against the hated Brewers. As ineffective as he's been recently, it ought to be like batting practice for them. But I think he can still be a solid starter in the majors. He's a smart pitcher who, when healthy, can be very effective. I think his problem this year has been that he's been hurt so often that he couldn't find a consistent groove. I say give him another chance next year and hope he stays healthy.

 

[thecrow124]

I guess it depends on his health as well. But yea, I want him on the team next year. Ahead of Ohlendorf for sure.

I would almost agree except it is a shoulder injury, anything else with a pitcher can be fixed, but shoulders seem to either linger, or render the pitcher ineffective. Because of that, I don't think we shoudl exercise Maholm's option.

 

[magnumo]

If forced to make a choice between Maholm at $9.75 million vs. Ohlendorf at $2 - $3 million, I'll take Ohlendorf (assuming both are healthy). It sticks in my head that arbitrators consider the past two seasons of a player's performance vs. his peers. If that's accurate, I'd guess that Ohlendorf is looking at a repeat of $2 mill at best in arbitration.

Note 1: If the Pirates were even a mid-revenue team, we wouldn't be having this discussion. In view of the importance of pitching, such a team likely would keep both.

Note 2: The pitching staff needs a dominant starter. Neither Maholm nor Ohlendorf fits that mold. Hence, it doesn't matter a whole lot.