Odds to win the 2015 World Series

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I would say the Orioles are a better value bet then the Brewers.
Best manager in baseball (debatable)
good rotation
all they lost from last year is Cruz, Markakis, and Andrew Miller
Barring injuries they will have Wieters and the 3b in the playoffs this year.

All they lost from last year was their best (by far) hitter, their 3rd best hitter - those two representing almost 70% of Orioles regulars with an OPS+ greater than 100 - and a relief pitcher.

Doesn't sound quite as good when put that way. I think the Orioles have a better chance of finishing 5th in the AL East than they do of winning the World Series.

 

[obxyankeefan]

All they lost from last year was their best (by far) hitter, their 3rd best hitter - those two representing almost 70% of Orioles regulars with an OPS+ greater than 100 - and a relief pitcher.

Doesn't sound quite as good when put that way. I think the Orioles have a better chance of finishing 5th in the AL East than they do of winning the World Series.

Wieters for a full season.
Machado healthy and for more then what 75 games last year
Chris Davis while not as good as 2013 has to be better than last year
all that should be able to make up for Markakis and Cruz

I think they win the East but not by as much as last year.

 

[Gooch1034]

The Cubs at 14-1?

Wow

14-1 is even better than predicted in the movie 100-1


Wonder when Jaws 19 will be released?

 

[Voltaire26]

I would take the Tigers at 16 to 1. I think its the best value on the board. I May be blinded by my homerism, but if I can get those odds in Las Vegas I'll drop a C-Note.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Wieters for a full season.
Machado healthy and for more then what 75 games last year
Chris Davis while not as good as 2013 has to be better than last year
all that should be able to make up for Markakis and Cruz

I think they win the East but not by as much as last year.

Good points.

I have concerns about Machado's ability to stay on the field.

Interestingly, I checked Baseball Prospectus' season projections (obviously, their word is not gospel, but I do think they have the best projection system publicly available), and they have the Orioles finishing 5th.

Baseball Prospectus

I can't wait for the season to start!

 

[StanMarsh51]

Good points.

I have concerns about Machado's ability to stay on the field.

Interestingly, I checked Baseball Prospectus' season projections (obviously, their word is not gospel, but I do think they have the best projection system publicly available), and they have the Orioles finishing 5th.

Baseball Prospectus

I can't wait for the season to start!

I don't think it's too big a concern...they have the DH spot open if anything for him.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't think it's too big a concern...they have the DH spot open if anything for him.

You edited that pretty quickly.

You asked why I would be concerned about his health originally. He missed time in 2011 for knee issues, so he's missed significant time in two of five seasons. He's only 22 and has already had both knees operated on. If that continues, it could sap his power whether he was in the field or playing DH.

 

[StanMarsh51]

You edited that pretty quickly.

You asked why I would be concerned about his health originally. He missed time in 2011 for knee issues, so he's missed significant time in two of five seasons. He's only 22 and has already had both knees operated on. If that continues, it could sap his power whether he was in the field or playing DH.

What'd he miss, 30 games as an 18 year old?

You can also look at is as he's missed significant time just once in the majors. I certainly think he'll be seeing a good amount of time at DH to where it'll improve then chances of keeping him healthy.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

What'd he miss, 30 games as an 18 year old?

You can also look at is as he's missed significant time just once in the majors. I certainly think he'll be seeing a good amount of time at DH to where it'll improve then chances of keeping him healthy.

So you want to ignore what happened in the minors. Suit yourself. Instead of missing significant time in three of five professional seasons, he's missed significant time in one of 2.3 Major League seasons.

When looking at a player's durability who has only been in the majors for 2.3 seasons, I think his minor league injury history is absolutely germane to the discussion. It also doesn't make sense to me that you've ignored the fact that, by age 21, he's had surgery on both knees.

Look, I didn't say the guy sucks, or that there's no way he can stay healthy, or that I butt fucked his mom. I just said that I have concerns about his ability to stay on the field. Clearly the Orioles do to, or they wouldn't be planning to give their young star third baseman a "good amount of time at DH."

I don't see, given his injury and surgical histories, how an objective fan could imply there's no reason for concern.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't see, given his injury and surgical histories, how an objective fan could imply there's no reason for concern.

This leads me to the question: is Machado on your fantasy team, or are you an Orioles fan?

If I remember correctly, you said you're a Yankees fan. You aren't, by chance, Trooper from FN, are you?

 

[StanMarsh51]

So you want to ignore what happened in the minors. Suit yourself. Instead of missing significant time in three of five professional seasons, he's missed significant time in one of 2.3 Major League seasons.

When looking at a player's durability who has only been in the majors for 2.3 seasons, I think his minor league injury history is absolutely germane to the discussion. It also doesn't make sense to me that you've ignored the fact that, by age 21, he's had surgery on both knees.

Look, I didn't say the guy sucks, or that there's no way he can stay healthy, or that I butt fucked his mom. I just said that I have concerns about his ability to stay on the field. Clearly the Orioles do to, or they wouldn't be planning to give their young star third baseman a "good amount of time at DH."

I don't see, given his injury and surgical histories, how an objective fan could imply there's no reason for concern.

If my math is correct, he's played in 80% of his team's games since the start of 2011. ...you're acting like the guy's playing 60 games a season. If the guy can play 80% of his team's games even with all those injuries, why are writing him off as if he's not going to play?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If my math is correct, he's played slightly over 80% of his team's games since the start of 2011. ...you're acting like the guy's playing 60 games a season. If the guy can play 80% of his team's games even with all those injuries, why are writing him off as if he's not going to play?

That's pretty melodramatic, Stan.

I'm not acting like anything. I said I have concerns about the durability of a 22 year old who has missed time in two seasons and had both knees operated on. I'm not alone in that concern.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

This leads me to the question: is Machado on your fantasy team, or are you an Orioles fan?

So, which is it, Stan?

 

[obxyankeefan]

Good points.

I have concerns about Machado's ability to stay on the field.

Interestingly, I checked Baseball Prospectus' season projections (obviously, their word is not gospel, but I do think they have the best projection system publicly available), and they have the Orioles finishing 5th.

Baseball Prospectus

I can't wait for the season to start!

I am surprised they have the Rays finishing second.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I am surprised they have the Rays finishing second.

Yeah. Like I said, it's not gospel. I'm a little surprised they have the O's in fifth, too. You know what they say, that's why they play the games. . .

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Wieters for a full season.
Machado healthy and for more then what 75 games last year
Chris Davis while not as good as 2013 has to be better than last year
all that should be able to make up for Markakis and Cruz

I think they win the East but not by as much as last year.

Just got a notification that Wieters has been shut down due to elbow tendonitis. I wonder if I should add his name to the list of players that Stan will lose his shit about if I mention I'm concerned about their health.

 

[obxyankeefan]

Just got a notification that Wieters has been shut down due to elbow tendonitis. I wonder if I should add his name to the list of players that Stan will lose his shit about if I mention I'm concerned about their health.

After just one game back. This makes my crystal ball powers look bad.

 

[moxie]

That's pretty melodramatic, Stan.

I'm not acting like anything. I said I have concerns about the durability of a 22 year old who has missed time in two seasons and had both knees operated on. I'm not alone in that concern.

His temper tantrums can't be good on his body.