Odds of winning National Championship in 2013 -- Based on Brasky's Theory

[Jack_John_Mark]

Here you go.......read it and weep. The computer says we stand a chance..........almost.

Contenders
Alabama - 42%
Florida - 16%
Florida State - 13%
USC - 13%
Auburn - 12%
Texas - 11%
LSU - 9%
Ohio State - 8%
Georgia - 8%
Notre Dame - 7%
Oklahoma - 7%
Oregon - 6%
Michigan - 6%
Clemson - 6%
Tennessee - 6%
Texas A&M - 5%

Less than 4%
Mississippi
UCLA
South Carolina
Nebraska
Washington
California

Less than 3%
Virginia Tech
Arkansas
Oklahoma State
North Carolina
Miami (FL)
Stanford

Less than 2%
Vanderbilt
West Virginia
Mississippi State
Virginia
Kentucky
Baylor
Maryland
Arizona State
Pittsburgh
TCU
Arizona
Oregon State
Michigan State
Missouri
Penn State
Utah Team
Rutgers
Kansas
Illinois
North Carolina State
South Florida
Texas Tech
Iowa
Louisville
Georgia Tech

Less than 1%
Purdue
Wisconsin
Indiana
Wake Forest
Houston
Northwestern
Washington State
Iowa State
Minnesota
Boise State
Marshall
Connecticut
Kansas State
Fresno State
Southern Methodist
Colorado
Duke
Toledo
Brigham Young
Cincinnati
Tulsa
Syracuse
Southern Miss
UCF
San Diego State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Tulane
Colorado State
Bowling Green
Temple
Florida Atlantic
Boston College
Central Michigan
Memphis
Rice
Hawaii
Western Kentucky
Nevada
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Troy
UAB
Navy
New Mexico
Ball State
Western Michigan
Ohio
Utah State
Wyoming
Kent State
Air Force
Army
Arkansas State
Northern Illinois
Miami (OH)
FIU
UNLV
Eastern Michigan
New Mexico State
Akron
Massachusetts
North Texas
Louisiana-Monroe
UTEP
Idaho
Buffalo
San Jose State

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

And for those of you who are math people much like myself.......I know you're gonna go add up the numbers right away and say they don't total 100% all together so this must be inaccurate.

They shouldn't total 100% in this situation. The pool is much too large and is about 50% made up of teams that do not even stand a chance even if they run the table.

 

[Brasky]

I don't know exactly what you did, but my plan from between now and opening day is to hash out the '09-'13 year recruiting averages (using rivals rankings) for as many teams as possible... And then see if those rankings reflect the AP poll at the end of the season.

 

[Brasky]

Looks pretty god damned legit.

 

[jedburks]

Just go to cfbmatrix

 

[Red_Alert]

Here you go.......read it and weep. The computer says we stand a chance..........almost.

Contenders
Alabama - 42%
Florida - 16%
Florida State - 13%
USC - 13%
Auburn - 12%
Texas - 11%
LSU - 9%
Ohio State - 8%
Georgia - 8%
Notre Dame - 7%
Oklahoma - 7%
Oregon - 6%
Michigan - 6%
Clemson - 6%
Tennessee - 6%
Texas A&M - 5%

Less than 4%
Mississippi
UCLA
South Carolina
Nebraska
Washington
California

 

[iruletheskool]

Formular doesnt take into account thee importance of gamechangers

T Magic is a gamechanger and will win em all fer us


Huskers fer champz

 

[HawkeyeHater]

Formula does not account that Nebraska has the easiest schedule in the country next year...... Upset Ohio State in CCG.....


Huskers fer Champz!!!!

 

[jedburks]

It also doesn't factor in coaching. That means of the listed "contenders", Florida St, USC, Auburn, Oregon, Clemson, and Tennesee are out.

 

[Red_Alert]

I give NU a better than 4% chance myself. The offense has the ability to be a scoring explosion the likes of 83' and the fixtures are gone. Just a top 30 rushing defense will keep NU competitive against UCLA, Michigan, and tOSU.

Not saying NU can win the N/C but I believe their chances of playing in it are better than 4%.

 

[Red_Alert]

It also doesn't factor in coaching. That means of the listed "contenders", Florida St, USC, Auburn, Oregon, Clemson, and Tennesee are out.

Bama's OL coach just left for Philly as well. I don't see Bama running the table next season, but then again they haven't had to to play for it all the last two years either.

An SEC team can stumble in with a loss, but unless you're tOSU everybody else in the B1G will have to run the table to be considered.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Oh this formula definitely misses on some key factors......no doubt. I just wanted to show strictly based on recruiting rankings what is expected next season.

I'm already working on a new formula now that will factor in coaching record in comparison to the recruiting classes that coach had (in an attempt to grade the coaching staff), returning starters, key positions such as QB, etc...

It will all be based on percentages en sech. I assume that Alabama's odds will actually increase in the new formula......probably better than 50%.

 

[jedburks]

Again, go to cfbmatrix. They have a "coach effect" ranking.

All you recruiting idiots will drool over that site.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Will check it out. I'm not exactly a recruiting idiot.....but I do follow it just to get me by during the off-season.

 

[iruletheskool]

I dont understand how following future Huskers is bad

 

[iruletheskool]

Jed just isnt a real fan

 

[jedburks]

Jed just isnt a real fan

That has obviously been proven thousands of times!!!

 

[CAforNU]

Formular doesnt take into account thee importance of gamechangers

T Magic is a gamechanger and will win em all fer us


Huskers fer champz

Yes, the person who has led the country in fumbles for several years is no doubt a game changer.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Here you go.......read it and weep. The computer says we stand a chance..........almost.

Contenders
Alabama - 42%
Florida - 16%
Florida State - 13%
USC - 13%
Auburn - 12%
Texas - 11%
LSU - 9%
Ohio State - 8%
Georgia - 8%
Notre Dame - 7%
Oklahoma - 7%
Oregon - 6%
Michigan - 6%
Clemson - 6%
Tennessee - 6%
Texas A&M - 5%

Less than 4%
Mississippi
UCLA
South Carolina
Nebraska
Washington
California

SMH

 

[huskers1217]

jjm...how does BPI make u feel?

NCAA College Basketball BPI Rankings - ESPN