National Title Contenders so far

[rfjeff9]

Here are the teams that are pretty much in the running:

In no order - main contenders:

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin

In no order - outside contenders:

5. Georgia Tech - Bad Conference hurts
6. Boise State - Bad schedule hurts
7. Oklahoma State - Will likely not go undefeated.
8. Clemson - Will believe it when I see it. There is a loss or two in set up for them somewhere.

fify

 

[imnotgay2011]

In no order - main contenders:

1. Boise State
2. Illinois
3. Wisconsin
4. Alabama
5. LSU
6. Oklahoma
7. Stanford
8. Oklahoma State - Will likely not go undefeated.
9. Michigan
10. Clemson

meow!!!

 

[imnotgay2011]

I have calculated that Illinois has a 2.7% chance to appear in the national championship game.

This is derived from five main factors:
1) Illinois will be favored or only slight underdogs in all of its remaining games except for playing Wisconsin at home and has a 21.5 percent chance of being undefeated for the Wisconsin game.
2) Wisconsin could go into Champaign undefeated (34.1 percent chance), in which case, it would be ranked anywhere from #1 to #3 nationally.
3) Illinois could upset Wisky at home (40.1 percent chance).
4) Given an undefeated Illinois team beats Wisconsin, it would be ranked in the top six nationally (55 percent chance).
5) If Illinois is ranked in top six, it's possible that enough teams could lose at least one game to put Illinois in the national championship game (34 percent chance)

If you multiply all these percentages together, Illinois has exactly a 2.7 percent chance to appear in the national championship game.


meow!!!

 

[CalvinJohnson4God]

Does Illinois really have a 4/10 chance to beat Wisconsin?

 

[CalvinJohnson4God]

..

 

[Ballboy534]

CLEMSON!!!!

Not until we prove we're past losing games we're favored in...

 

[imnotgay2011]

Does Illinois really have a 4/10 chance to beat Wisconsin?

Yes. It's at home and we all know what happened the last time the Illini played a #1 team...and that wasn't EVEN at home!

meow!!!

 

[Vadered]

I have calculated that Illinois has a 2.7% chance to appear in the national championship game.

This is derived from five main factors:
1) Illinois will be favored or only slight underdogs in all of its remaining games except for playing Wisconsin at home and has a 21.5 percent chance of being undefeated for the Wisconsin game.
2) Wisconsin could go into Champaign undefeated (34.1 percent chance), in which case, it would be ranked anywhere from #1 to #3 nationally.
3) Illinois could upset Wisky at home (40.1 percent chance).
4) Given an undefeated Illinois team beats Wisconsin, it would be ranked in the top six nationally (55 percent chance).
5) If Illinois is ranked in top six, it's possible that enough teams could lose at least one game to put Illinois in the national championship game (34 percent chance)

If you multiply all these percentages together, Illinois has exactly a 2.7 percent chance to appear in the national championship game.


meow!!!

Gonna go with your numbers here. I'm not saying they are accurate, but for this paragraph, let's assume they are. I will however throw out number 4 and say if undefeated Illini beat undefeated Badgers they are a 100% chance to be top 6. That leaves us with .215 x .341 x .401 x.340 = .0099, which is actually a 0.99% chance. Throwing in your .550 from number 4, that would be a 0.54% chance. Did you just figure you'd multiply that by 5 for kicks, or what?

 

[imnotgay2011]

Gonna go with your numbers here. I'm not saying they are accurate, but for this paragraph, let's assume they are. I will however throw out number 4 and say if undefeated Illini beat undefeated Badgers they are a 100% chance to be top 6. That leaves us with .215 x .341 x .401 x.340 = .0099, which is actually a 0.99% chance. Throwing in your .550 from number 4, that would be a 0.54% chance. Did you just figure you'd multiply that by 5 for kicks, or what?

Sorry, I used my old numbers by mistake. I changed my calculations after seeing the newly released polls which have Wisconsin one point form #4 and Illinois at #16. That means I'm throwing out #4 completely...i.e. there is a 100% chance that Illinois would be ranked in top 6...in fact, there is a 90 percent chance it would be ranked in top 4, improving the chances that other teams would lose at least one game to 68 percent, thus, i get the 2.7% final figure.

Thanks for checking my math.

meow!!!

 

[HighTide]

Where in the world did you get those numbers? Also, why do you assume all those events are independent?

 

[imnotgay2011]

Where in the world did you get those numbers? Also, why do you assume all those events are independent?

Game by game likelihood of winning are mine, based on my knowledge of opponents. Illinois has a 90 percent chance of winning at Indiana, but only a 60 percent chance of winning at Purdue...etc.

The likelihood of Illinois and Wisconsin being undefeated are definitely independent. In fact, it's definitely possible, but less likely that Illinois gets to national championship even if Wisconsin is defeated, but it makes it less likely.

Illinois beating Wisconsin is independent of all other factors, of course.

And whether other key teams lose at least one game is independent of all other factors listed.

ipso, facto, Illinois has a 2.7% chance of being in national championship game.

meow!!!

 

[metal_frk_334]

Your user name is a lie. "meow!!!" at the end of every post means you are gay...

 

[imnotgay2011]

Your user name is a lie. "meow!!!" at the end of every post means you are gay...

HISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!

is that better???


meow!!!

 

[axisoftime]

Illinois is aaaiiight this year, but let's not get silly. Wisky will roll em after they get beat down by the Wolverweenies

 

[BigAppleBadger]

I think a Big12 team could play with a loss

It will be Big12 v. SEC unless someone is undefeated to push the Big12 or SEC out .

Well if there's no undefeateds then a lot of teams could get in with a loss.

There is no way a 1-loss Big 12 team gets in ahead of an undefeated Big Ten, Pac-12 or ACC team (read: Wisconsin, Stanford or Clemson).

The only teams that could are LSU and Bama, because an SEC team WILL get a NCG berth until someone defeats their representative on the field (and this is how it should be).


Wisconsin (unlike OSU) has outperformed against SEC teams before... too bad there isn't a better highlight video, but they sure didn't look slow against the Barners either:

http://youtu.be/TRik7VspH4U

 

[CalvinJohnson4God]

Well if there's no undefeateds then a lot of teams could get in with a loss.

There is no way a 1-loss Big 12 team gets in ahead of an undefeated Big Ten, Pac-12 or ACC team (read: Wisconsin, Stanford or Clemson).

The only teams that could are LSU and Bama, because an SEC team WILL get a NCG berth until someone defeats their representative on the field (and this is how it should be).


Wisconsin (unlike OSU) has outperformed against SEC teams before... too bad there isn't a better highlight video, but they sure didn't look slow against the Barners either:

The Best of Ron Dayne - YouTube

Are you saying that undefeated Michigan, Illinois, or Georgia Tech wouldn't get in ahead of a 1 loss B12/SEC team?

 

[BigAppleBadger]

I am not sure if Stanford plays anyone of merit all season long outside of Oregon. Who else is good on their schedule? Washington is decent I guess. Cal? I haven't heard much from them. Oregon State and Wazzau are still hot garbage.

Washington is decent? They've beat 3 mid-majors and Cal, and lost to Nebraska.

Oregon State sucks, let's see if Stanford does better than 35-0 against them.

 

[BigAppleBadger]

Are you saying that undefeated Michigan, Illinois, or Georgia Tech wouldn't get in ahead of a 1 loss B12/SEC team?

I'm saying those teams won't finish undefeated. The three teams I mentioned were the 3 teams from those conferences with a good shot at going undefeated.

Does Illinois really have a 4/10 chance to beat Wisconsin?

Don't be silly, of course not.

 

[LSUfanFloridaAlumni]

I don't think it is guaranteed that a 1 loss SEC team will passed an unbeaten ACC/B1G team, etc.

I think it will come down to Strength of Schedule and the computers.

It is hard to see a scenario with Wisconsin 13-0, Stanford 13-0, and Alabama 12-1 and Bama getting in.

 

[LSUfanFloridaAlumni]

Now I could see if Bama mops up in their bowl game, Bama getting the AP vote in that scenario.