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tlance
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The MVP has become more than just the best player on the best team in recent years. A player needs 2 things in order to have a legitimate chance to win it. They need to post a nasty stat line on a winning team, and they need to have a compelling narrative.
2 years ago, Westbrook won because he was the first player in over 40 years to average a triple double. Last year, he repeated the same feat, his team won 1 more game, yet he finished a distant 5th because his narrative just wasn't as strong and his team struggled with consistency. That, and it was Harden's turn to win.
Without further ado, let's look at the top candidates for 2019:
1) Anthony Davis: 35%- Davis has the narrative on his side. He is the best player never to have won MVP and most pundits are expecting the Pelicans to be 8-10 out West. If Davis is able to stay healthy, post his usual absurd stat lines and lead the Pelicans to 50+ wins, he is your likely MVP.
2) LeBron James: 30%- LeBron finally has a compelling narrative again! If he is able to lead his current cast of misfits to a top 4 seed in the West with another dominant statistical season, I think only AD has the firepower to top him.
3) James Harden: 10%- It is really hard to repeat as MVP. For Harden to have a chance, both his stat line and the Rockets' win total need to be really close to where they were last year. I don't think that is super likely.
4) Russell Westbrook: 7.5%- This one is more about the Thunder than it is about Russ. Yes, he will need to get close to another triple double season because that is where he has set the bar, but more importantly the Thunder need to separate from the pack and clearly establish themselves as a top 3 team in the West.
5) Kevin Durant: 7.5%- KD is going to need some help from some of the folks mentioned above. He will also need the Warriors to flirt with the regular season wins record without a significant contribution from Cousins.
6) Kawhi Leonard: 5%- Kawhi will need to play at 2017 levels, but he will also need to lead the Raptors to the best record in the East and demonstrate they are substantially better with him than they were with DeRozan.
7) Giannis Antetokounmpo: 4%- I don't think the Bucks will be good enough, but his upside is unlimited. He has to be on the list in case he breaks out this season.
8) Kyrie Irving: 0.02% I wanted to list him because I have seen people talk about Kyrie as an MVP candidate. He is likely to finish top 5 ahead of some listed here. But, his stats are not going to be on the same level and the Celtics are probably a 60 win team without him. Kyrie may get close, but he will not win it.
Dark Horse candidates: < 1%- Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Steph Curry, Victor Oladipo, Donovan Mitchell, Karl Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic
Let me know if you think I missed somebody!
2 years ago, Westbrook won because he was the first player in over 40 years to average a triple double. Last year, he repeated the same feat, his team won 1 more game, yet he finished a distant 5th because his narrative just wasn't as strong and his team struggled with consistency. That, and it was Harden's turn to win.
Without further ado, let's look at the top candidates for 2019:
1) Anthony Davis: 35%- Davis has the narrative on his side. He is the best player never to have won MVP and most pundits are expecting the Pelicans to be 8-10 out West. If Davis is able to stay healthy, post his usual absurd stat lines and lead the Pelicans to 50+ wins, he is your likely MVP.
2) LeBron James: 30%- LeBron finally has a compelling narrative again! If he is able to lead his current cast of misfits to a top 4 seed in the West with another dominant statistical season, I think only AD has the firepower to top him.
3) James Harden: 10%- It is really hard to repeat as MVP. For Harden to have a chance, both his stat line and the Rockets' win total need to be really close to where they were last year. I don't think that is super likely.
4) Russell Westbrook: 7.5%- This one is more about the Thunder than it is about Russ. Yes, he will need to get close to another triple double season because that is where he has set the bar, but more importantly the Thunder need to separate from the pack and clearly establish themselves as a top 3 team in the West.
5) Kevin Durant: 7.5%- KD is going to need some help from some of the folks mentioned above. He will also need the Warriors to flirt with the regular season wins record without a significant contribution from Cousins.
6) Kawhi Leonard: 5%- Kawhi will need to play at 2017 levels, but he will also need to lead the Raptors to the best record in the East and demonstrate they are substantially better with him than they were with DeRozan.
7) Giannis Antetokounmpo: 4%- I don't think the Bucks will be good enough, but his upside is unlimited. He has to be on the list in case he breaks out this season.
8) Kyrie Irving: 0.02% I wanted to list him because I have seen people talk about Kyrie as an MVP candidate. He is likely to finish top 5 ahead of some listed here. But, his stats are not going to be on the same level and the Celtics are probably a 60 win team without him. Kyrie may get close, but he will not win it.
Dark Horse candidates: < 1%- Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Steph Curry, Victor Oladipo, Donovan Mitchell, Karl Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic
Let me know if you think I missed somebody!
