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Note that everything I list below is based on Overthecap.com numbers as of the date of post.
Well, folks, the dreaded words "Cap Hell" have been heaved upon this offseason with two possible top 5 players at their respective positions needing big paydays. I am not so sure that is quite true given the money that can be taken away from low level guys like Donnie Avery, but in any kind of mental gymnastics, the Chiefs are in a bit of a tough spot if there's any hope to upgrade the team, at least through FA; draft may be a different story with 11 draft picks. I am not at all savvy when it comes to the cap, so hopefully I won't make too many mistakes here.
Per overthecap, the Chiefs are ~1.57M over the $142,246,790 projected salary cap. Again, the salary cap could actually be a bit higher, but let's go off of overthecap's projection, for the sake of this exercise.
The Obvious cuts- guys who quite bluntly, are paid >1M, and just are not very good at pro football; or just redundant:
Donnie Avery
AJ Jenkins
Chase Daniel
After cutting these players, the Chiefs are now ~5.4M under the cap, erm... not enough for Houston, the draft, Hudson, and role players, etc. So, let's continue while using these cuts as a baseline going forward.
It might hurt, but it might not either in the draft.
Fasano: While very useful as a #2 TE, it's a bit rich of the blood and KC already has Kelce and almost assuredly a very athletic Demetrius Harris. If you are in the Jeff Heuerman bandwagon (or some other TE past round 1) this is an easy decision- cut. If not, this might be a bit trickier. I'll lean towards cutting Fasano here for this exercise.
Walker : Signed last year, but didn't receive a ton a playing time. Did provide pressure when he was present on the field, however. Cutting him brings his cap number down from 3.75M to 2M. Not a huge cut, so it's kind of debatable depending what your view is of guys like Allen Bailey (who received an extension keep in mind) Jaye Howard, Catapano, etc. I would lean towards keeping Walker, personally.
After cutting Fasano, the Chiefs are now ~ 6.8M under the projected cap.
The Eric Berry Situation
Eric Berry's situation complicates matters here. There's a pretty solid chance he is not playing football next season; so there is some question of what will happen to the sizeable cap number. Since this situation has nothing to do with the NFL injuries per se, Eric Berry may be placed on a special list here- the NFL List, iirtnc.. On this list, the Chiefs can actually choose how much they pay him- they could technically pay him nothing for example; or his contract in full. Based on precedent, Berry will receive ~50% of his projected pay in good faith, so let's assume precedent repeats here.
50% of Berry's pay would equate to $4,178,850 against the cap.
The Chiefs are now ~$11,061,983 based on what OvertheCap.com is showing me + (Eric Berry * .5)
The Achilles Brothers- To cut, or not to cut; not listing McKnight (sorry Buck) since he is a actually a FA.
DeVito-a nice run stuffing presence would be nice for a defense that was near the bottom giving up a 4.7 YPC on the ground. However, he is coming off an Achilles injury. It's a tough pill to swallow, but I think you have to pull the trigger in order to get a serious deal on the table for Hudson, Houston, etc. I think this is a pretty clear cut candidate as well.
Johnson- also tore his Achilles past 30, not good news. On the other hand, JMJ and Mauga at ILB... even worse news? 75% Derrick Johnson might be worth the money he is due, a little over 5M, and could significantly upgrade ILB- even if it isn't quite the pro bowler we are used to seeing. It won't bring us back to a 4 YPC against; it's not happening with how much this team plays nickel, but you'll see a lot less of the cheap 5 yard runs we have been drummed with be more determined teams. Could elevate the RZ Run defense from average to noticeably above average, potentially. You could cut him, but I would hedge our bets here and keep him despite the Achilles...look at what Suggs has done lately.
If we go with my cuts, the Chiefs are now $14,564,605 under the cap. At this point, a Franchise Tag for Justin Houston is on the table. Still not enough for Rodney Hudson, role players, and draftees, so let's churn some more of the roster.
Linebacker: $13.08M
Honorable mention: Joe Mays. This spot kind of depends on what you want to do with Derrick Johnson. If you cut Johnson, I think you probably should keep Mays; if you keep Johnson, you could keep Mays and push down the ILB can down the road another year.
I'll play along (since I want either McKinney or Kendricks if they grade out high enough)
After cutting Mays, the Chiefs now $16,829,605 under the cap based on Overthecap's numbers.
Big Money, Big Problems- This is where the real pain/crux is going to be felt in our quest to make enough cap room for the draft, Houston, Hudson, and role players.
Dwayne Bowe- our friendly neighborhood #2 receiver. Slated to get a huge $14,000,000 for a little over 700 yards and 0 TD's... EEEK. I understand this team was 28th in passing attempts... but... uh, Bowe is not worth $14,000,000, period. However, cutting him has the obvious effect of cutting our only sure bet at WR- and our best one. You're a brave soul if you want Albert Wilson being your only starter coming into the draft.
What we might have here is a paycut candidate. Bowe isn't getting this much money in FA, and has value to the team; so a pay cut is possible here. Now, where is the point that Bowe and his Agent bail to test the FA waters? Not sure. My guess is 10M is about the best case scenario with a pay cut. Straight up cutting him would still leave him with a cap number of 9,000,000.
The nuclear option, so to speak, would be to designate him as a June 1st cut. This would kick some of that money down to next year's cap (ugh) but it would create a huge amount of cap room right now. If you designate him for a June 1st cut, the Chiefs at this point would have $27,394,640 in cap room. At that point, signing Houston to a long term deal is very doable. Even if we get really aggressive and say he gets 6/100, we should be ok.
Tamba Hali- Good player, but worth nearly 12 million for 6 sacks? I would wager no. Here's an interesting tidbit though from Hali earlier from an interview that can be seen in the Tamba Hali thread.
Essentially, there are two options, an extension where the current money is spread around over the next few years, or an outright paycut. I'd prefer a restructure as Hali does have a positive contribution to the team, it's just a money issue here. I am not sure exactly what this would look like, but it'd be substantially less that the current 11M+ cap hit.
Alex Smith- with a guy with this much money, there's actually a trick with restructuring his contract that the Chiefs strictly control; Alex Smith can't say no. It would free up roughly 8 million in cap space this year, but the guaranteed money would probably be spread out towards 2017- which is when the Chiefs plan keeping him up until anyways, most likely. Considering this is the same FO that gave Alex, at least as a matter of proportion, a similar number of guaranteed money that a Peyton Manning would have, it's a not a bad bet that this happens as well.
Conclusion: The Chiefs could create over 35 Million in cap space if they really want to, but there are some consequences as well for next season, in the draft, and down the road. Alex, Bowe, and Hali will be the kingpins of the Chiefs' FA options. They'll lose a lot of talent, but a great deal of that talent wasn't essential to what the team accomplished in 2014 due to injuries, lack of playing time, etc, so there's some hope this won't be debilitating either if they are cutthroat about the cap.
Well, folks, the dreaded words "Cap Hell" have been heaved upon this offseason with two possible top 5 players at their respective positions needing big paydays. I am not so sure that is quite true given the money that can be taken away from low level guys like Donnie Avery, but in any kind of mental gymnastics, the Chiefs are in a bit of a tough spot if there's any hope to upgrade the team, at least through FA; draft may be a different story with 11 draft picks. I am not at all savvy when it comes to the cap, so hopefully I won't make too many mistakes here.
Per overthecap, the Chiefs are ~1.57M over the $142,246,790 projected salary cap. Again, the salary cap could actually be a bit higher, but let's go off of overthecap's projection, for the sake of this exercise.
The Obvious cuts- guys who quite bluntly, are paid >1M, and just are not very good at pro football; or just redundant:
Donnie Avery
AJ Jenkins
Chase Daniel
After cutting these players, the Chiefs are now ~5.4M under the cap, erm... not enough for Houston, the draft, Hudson, and role players, etc. So, let's continue while using these cuts as a baseline going forward.
It might hurt, but it might not either in the draft.
Fasano: While very useful as a #2 TE, it's a bit rich of the blood and KC already has Kelce and almost assuredly a very athletic Demetrius Harris. If you are in the Jeff Heuerman bandwagon (or some other TE past round 1) this is an easy decision- cut. If not, this might be a bit trickier. I'll lean towards cutting Fasano here for this exercise.
Walker : Signed last year, but didn't receive a ton a playing time. Did provide pressure when he was present on the field, however. Cutting him brings his cap number down from 3.75M to 2M. Not a huge cut, so it's kind of debatable depending what your view is of guys like Allen Bailey (who received an extension keep in mind) Jaye Howard, Catapano, etc. I would lean towards keeping Walker, personally.
After cutting Fasano, the Chiefs are now ~ 6.8M under the projected cap.
The Eric Berry Situation
Eric Berry's situation complicates matters here. There's a pretty solid chance he is not playing football next season; so there is some question of what will happen to the sizeable cap number. Since this situation has nothing to do with the NFL injuries per se, Eric Berry may be placed on a special list here- the NFL List, iirtnc.. On this list, the Chiefs can actually choose how much they pay him- they could technically pay him nothing for example; or his contract in full. Based on precedent, Berry will receive ~50% of his projected pay in good faith, so let's assume precedent repeats here.
50% of Berry's pay would equate to $4,178,850 against the cap.
The Chiefs are now ~$11,061,983 based on what OvertheCap.com is showing me + (Eric Berry * .5)
The Achilles Brothers- To cut, or not to cut; not listing McKnight (sorry Buck) since he is a actually a FA.
DeVito-a nice run stuffing presence would be nice for a defense that was near the bottom giving up a 4.7 YPC on the ground. However, he is coming off an Achilles injury. It's a tough pill to swallow, but I think you have to pull the trigger in order to get a serious deal on the table for Hudson, Houston, etc. I think this is a pretty clear cut candidate as well.
Johnson- also tore his Achilles past 30, not good news. On the other hand, JMJ and Mauga at ILB... even worse news? 75% Derrick Johnson might be worth the money he is due, a little over 5M, and could significantly upgrade ILB- even if it isn't quite the pro bowler we are used to seeing. It won't bring us back to a 4 YPC against; it's not happening with how much this team plays nickel, but you'll see a lot less of the cheap 5 yard runs we have been drummed with be more determined teams. Could elevate the RZ Run defense from average to noticeably above average, potentially. You could cut him, but I would hedge our bets here and keep him despite the Achilles...look at what Suggs has done lately.
If we go with my cuts, the Chiefs are now $14,564,605 under the cap. At this point, a Franchise Tag for Justin Houston is on the table. Still not enough for Rodney Hudson, role players, and draftees, so let's churn some more of the roster.
Linebacker: $13.08M
Honorable mention: Joe Mays. This spot kind of depends on what you want to do with Derrick Johnson. If you cut Johnson, I think you probably should keep Mays; if you keep Johnson, you could keep Mays and push down the ILB can down the road another year.
I'll play along (since I want either McKinney or Kendricks if they grade out high enough)
After cutting Mays, the Chiefs now $16,829,605 under the cap based on Overthecap's numbers.
Big Money, Big Problems- This is where the real pain/crux is going to be felt in our quest to make enough cap room for the draft, Houston, Hudson, and role players.
Dwayne Bowe- our friendly neighborhood #2 receiver. Slated to get a huge $14,000,000 for a little over 700 yards and 0 TD's... EEEK. I understand this team was 28th in passing attempts... but... uh, Bowe is not worth $14,000,000, period. However, cutting him has the obvious effect of cutting our only sure bet at WR- and our best one. You're a brave soul if you want Albert Wilson being your only starter coming into the draft.
What we might have here is a paycut candidate. Bowe isn't getting this much money in FA, and has value to the team; so a pay cut is possible here. Now, where is the point that Bowe and his Agent bail to test the FA waters? Not sure. My guess is 10M is about the best case scenario with a pay cut. Straight up cutting him would still leave him with a cap number of 9,000,000.
The nuclear option, so to speak, would be to designate him as a June 1st cut. This would kick some of that money down to next year's cap (ugh) but it would create a huge amount of cap room right now. If you designate him for a June 1st cut, the Chiefs at this point would have $27,394,640 in cap room. At that point, signing Houston to a long term deal is very doable. Even if we get really aggressive and say he gets 6/100, we should be ok.
Tamba Hali- Good player, but worth nearly 12 million for 6 sacks? I would wager no. Here's an interesting tidbit though from Hali earlier from an interview that can be seen in the Tamba Hali thread.
Essentially, there are two options, an extension where the current money is spread around over the next few years, or an outright paycut. I'd prefer a restructure as Hali does have a positive contribution to the team, it's just a money issue here. I am not sure exactly what this would look like, but it'd be substantially less that the current 11M+ cap hit.
Alex Smith- with a guy with this much money, there's actually a trick with restructuring his contract that the Chiefs strictly control; Alex Smith can't say no. It would free up roughly 8 million in cap space this year, but the guaranteed money would probably be spread out towards 2017- which is when the Chiefs plan keeping him up until anyways, most likely. Considering this is the same FO that gave Alex, at least as a matter of proportion, a similar number of guaranteed money that a Peyton Manning would have, it's a not a bad bet that this happens as well.
Conclusion: The Chiefs could create over 35 Million in cap space if they really want to, but there are some consequences as well for next season, in the draft, and down the road. Alex, Bowe, and Hali will be the kingpins of the Chiefs' FA options. They'll lose a lot of talent, but a great deal of that talent wasn't essential to what the team accomplished in 2014 due to injuries, lack of playing time, etc, so there's some hope this won't be debilitating either if they are cutthroat about the cap.
