Minor League Development

[calsnowskier]

This is a topic that is discussed quite a bit in the GDTs recently. I think it deserves its own thread.

Mays brought up a point that we discussed a few years ago (in the Disney days?)...

A team needs to produce 3 MLB players per year to stay afloat assuming an 8-year average MLB career per player.

There are a few points that need to be made about this statement.

1) Is the 8-year career based on anything, or just a number used for ease to continue the discussion?
2) If the cuppo-players are included in that, I would argue that the average should be MUCH lower (3 years?)


If cuppo-players are counted, than I would argue that the Giants are actually pretty decent at getting close to needed number of "graduates" per year. This year alone we have handed out 4 cuppos (Panik, Duffy, Duvall, Susac), not counting Escobar (who is getting his cuppo with the BoSox) or Jarrett (was called up but did not play). I think it fair to assume there will be at least 3 more in September (Brown, Jarrett, Carbonell, Castillo pound, Hall, etc are all possibilities).

IIRC, when we had this convo a few years ago, we determined that a team needed to "graduate" 3 legit players per year to stay afloat. If this number is accurate, I think we can say Sussac and Panik are looking like solid contributors and Duffy and Duvall are not looking bad. That is 4 potential legit MLBers in our first 4 cuppos this year. We are already ahead of the game there.

 

[calsnowskier]

A second point that I wanted to address was the quick discussion we had about Gonnar.

He appeared to be a fringe MLBer at best when he was done with us. He could only play 3B (and not that well); had displayed ZERO power potential; and looked to be completely over-matched by MLB pitching. He was out of options and had to either make the roster (which he had already lost the battle to Arias, IIRC), be DFA'd (where he would have almost certainly be claimed) or be traded. The Giants ended up trading him to the ChiSox for a formerly high-rated prospect (Jeff Soptic), which I think was the best of all the available options.

What I think is the interesting tidbit of this whole thing is that Gonnar has turned out to be a rather decent starting 3B for the Sox. Is this due to the Sox having a better coaching staff to be able to handle Gonnar? Is it simply a case of a fresh start for him, and nothing more? Is it just SSS and he will plummet in the coming year(s), similar to Nate?

Is it fair to even criticize the Giants for this? Is it fair to criticize Saint Billy for letting Casilla walk for nothing? Should Sabean's reclamation projects like Vogelsong or Lopez be ignored?

these are all legit questions, and I would like to get your thoughts...

 

[msgkings322]

My thoughts are that Sabean is an A+ GM, but even those guys (like Beane who you mentioned) make mistakes, and it's very easy to see in hindsight what those mistakes are. But a GM can only be evaluated as a whole, because it's about how MANY misses they have vs hits. Just like a player, it's about batting average not batting 1.000.

Overall there's no doubt Sabean has been awesome, even if we can point out how a thin bench and farm has hurt us this year. But we are thin because of prior moves that resulted in 2 WS rings.

I think frankly Bochy deserves more criticism for this year. Of course he's terrific, even after this year, but I feel he could have tried to shake things up more with their approach (steals, bunts, manufacture runs when you can't get them the normal way).

 

[Stokes1931]

Every player who makes it to a MLB roster is phenomenally talented.

However, at that level, there is still growing and developing to be done.

I think the Giants have done very well at getting players to the MLB roster. Many of this year's players are home grown: Posey, Panda, Crawford, Susac, Panik, Duffy, Belt, Hakctor, Lincecum, Cain, Vogelsong (after being a prodigal for a decade), Romo, etc.

What concerns me is that there has been a digression for most of the hitters in the last few years.

Panda
Career- .296/.348/.470
2014- .282/.329/.435
2013- .278/.341/.417
2012- .283/.342/.447

Posey
Career- .302/.371/.475
2014- .280/.343/.427
2013- .294/.371/.450
2012- .336/.408/.549

Everyone of Posey's numbers have gone down over the last three years.

Crawford
Career- .238/.308/.355
2014- .230/.319/.384
2013- .248/.311/.363
2012- .248/.304/.349

Slight increase in power and OBP, decrease in BA

Is it the talent? Is it the coaching? Is it the system? Is it the stadium?

Every team will let players go too soon, and not soon enough. Hembree looks like a mistake to let go, but it is a really SSS so far. I only brought Gonor up out of frustration that he has blossomed as a hitter (this season) while the Giants' hitters are shriveling. Change of environment? Change of coaching?

I am not sure how much coaching comes into it. Guys usually stick to what got them to the big leagues. But what got them here, and what will keep them here, and what will get them increased $$$$ are all different things. I mean, how much could Phil Jackson really tell Michael or Kobe?

Our minors look to be pitching rich, and that is promising, but we absolutely have to develop hitters, and with a better, slump-free approach. Not a lot of help coming from the minors in the next year or two hitting-wise save for perhaps the kids this year, and Mac and Brown.

 

[msgkings322]

Every player who makes it to a MLB roster is phenomenally talented.

However, at that level, there is still growing and developing to be done.

I think the Giants have done very well at getting players to the MLB roster. Many of this year's players are home grown: Posey, Panda, Crawford, Susac, Panik, Duffy, Belt, Hakctor, Lincecum, Cain, Vogelsong (after being a prodigal for a decade), Romo, etc.

What concerns me is that there has been a digression for most of the hitters in the last few years.

Panda
Career- .296/.348/.470
2014- .282/.329/.435
2013- .278/.341/.417
2012- .283/.342/.447

Posey
Career- .302/.371/.475
2014- .280/.343/.427
2013- .294/.371/.450
2012- .336/.408/.549

Everyone of Posey's numbers have gone down over the last three years.

Crawford
Career- .238/.308/.355
2014- .230/.319/.384
2013- .248/.311/.363
2012- .248/.304/.349

Slight increase in power and OBP, decrease in BA

Is it the talent? Is it the coaching? Is it the system? Is it the stadium?

Every team will let players go too soon, and not soon enough. Hembree looks like a mistake to let go, but it is a really SSS so far. I only brought Gonor up out of frustration that he has blossomed as a hitter (this season) while the Giants' hitters are shriveling. Change of environment? Change of coaching?

I am not sure how much coaching comes into it. Guys usually stick to what got them to the big leagues. But what got them here, and what will keep them here, and what will get them increased $$$$ are all different things. I mean, how much could Phil Jackson really tell Michael or Kobe?

Our minors look to be pitching rich, and that is promising, but we absolutely have to develop hitters, and with a better, slump-free approach. Not a lot of help coming from the minors in the next year or two hitting-wise save for perhaps the kids this year, and Mac and Brown.

Posey's decline is VERY concerning to me. He's the straw that stirs the drink. If 2014 Posey is all we have going forward we are screwed, and also we overpaid him big time.

 

[Stokes1931]

Posey's decline is VERY concerning to me. He's the straw that stirs the drink. If 2014 Posey is all we have going forward we are screwed, and also we overpaid him big time.