meltzer's hockeybuzz post

[indyflyr]

gotta say i agree with him. it would have been better for the club to have moved carter. unless there is some other strategy, like betting on the next nhlpa trade agreement to offer significant changes, then we are really going to be stuck with a lot of old ntc guys and absolutely no money.

 

[indyflyr]

sorry...here's the link HockeyBuzz.com - Bill Meltzer - Meltzer's Musings: 8-6-10

 

[awaz]

haha had the link copied to come make this same thread.. its a real good article and i agree 100%

i said when it was evident that 5 mil needed to be moved from the roster that moving carter would be the better option.. its the position of strength, gagne is UFA next year (in other words, it moves 10 mil off the cap for next season), and carter is just too inconsistent.. with gagne it was pretty much a guarantee that he'd get around .75 points per game, and be one of the 2 best defensive forwards on the team, night in and night out..

if you trade carter instead of gagne, you have gagne for this season, much more return than a 4th round pick and walker, probably a 1st round pick and a solid prospect (assuming you dont go over the cap and deal from a position of weakness like homer did).. and you have gags coming off the books next year, leaving 10 million to spend on all the FA's.. plus then if you want to keep the guy, it'd be 4.5 mil or less for gagne, instead of around 7 for carter

 

[banditshcky11]

haha had the link copied to come make this same thread.. its a real good article and i agree 100%

i said when it was evident that 5 mil needed to be moved from the roster that moving carter would be the better option.. its the position of strength, gagne is UFA next year (in other words, it moves 10 mil off the cap for next season), and carter is just too inconsistent.. with gagne it was pretty much a guarantee that he'd get around .75 points per game, and be one of the 2 best defensive forwards on the team, night in and night out..

if you trade carter instead of gagne, you have gagne for this season, much more return than a 4th round pick and walker, probably a 1st round pick and a solid prospect (assuming you dont go over the cap and deal from a position of weakness like homer did).. and you have gags coming off the books next year, leaving 10 million to spend on all the FA's.. plus then if you want to keep the guy, it'd be 4.5 mil or less for gagne, instead of around 7 for carter

^This

 

[scottflyers88]

no idea why carter would get 7 mil. and we are not in the same situation as the hawks.

 

[awaz]

no idea why carter would get 7 mil. and we are not in the same situation as the hawks.

i agree we're not in the same situation as the hawks, thats a bit over the top.. but...

player(cap hit)
last 3 years, points per game

Carter (5)
.824
1.02
.645

Iginla (7)
.841
1.09
1.195

Marleau (6.8)
1.01
.934
.615

Spezza (7)
.950
.890
1.21

Drury(7.05)
.416
.419
.402

Vanek(7.142)
.746
.877
.780

Kopitar(6.8)
.573
.476
.549

Gomez(7.357)
.603
.545
.667

Thornton(7.2)
.873
.744
.817

he'll get 7 mil, no problem.. his numbers are better than everyone around 7 except for iginla.. pretty comprable to spezza and marleau.. say what you want about some of those guys being way overpaid, but when most of that list is 'overpaid'.. id say its pretty conclusive thats what 7 mil buys you these days

 

[FlyerFinFan]

They can still move Carts at anytime if needed so I'm not concerned in the slightest about this. IMO they'll either get some draft picks or young talent in return when this happens but at least they'll get something down the road. Gags was going to walk next year with no return so to me its all good.

 

[scottflyers88]

well that list is almost completely overpaid. briere got 6.5 mil after having a 90 point season.

 

[ProppRules]

How many UFA's are underpaid? It is a fact of life that the Flyers had to pick these players up at a higher rate. However, Carter can just as easily be moved next year. Moving him this year and letting Gagne walk is just semantics. THe FLyers preferred to keep Carter and retain the ability to resign him next year. I am all for that. If he doesn't progress, or wants too much money, let him go. As for the NTC, so f'ing what? Gags had one. He didn't want to waive it, and now he is in Tampa saying all the right things. Others will do the same if necessary.
That said, although I love virtually all of Homer's moves, he hasn't exactly managed the cap all that well...

 

[awaz]

he'll get 7 mil, no problem.. his numbers are better than everyone around 7 except for iginla.. pretty comprable to spezza and marleau.. say what you want about some of those guys being way overpaid, but when most of that list is 'overpaid'.. id say its pretty conclusive thats what 7 mil buys you these days

well that list is almost completely overpaid. briere got 6.5 mil after having a 90 point season.

..........

i didnt pick and choose the 7 mil guys.. i listed pretty much everyone within 300k of 7 mil.. thats what 7 mil buys you in todays NHL

and if you wanna say they're overpaid, thats fine.. then carters gunna get overpaid too

i seem to remember us having this same conversation about hamhuis too.. i said he'd get 4 and you said no way, i believe it was 'in what world does hamhuis get 4'.. he got 4.5

saying everyone is overpaid doesn't cover up what they're going to get

 

[scottflyers88]

carter is a rfa though. do you know what we get if another team offers him a contract. the only teams with enough cap space would probably not want to give up their picks.

 

[anderwho2513]

player(cap hit)
last 3 years, points per game

Carter (5)
.824
1.02
.645

Iginla (7)
.841
1.09
1.195

Marleau (6.8)
1.01
.934
.615

Spezza (7)
.950
.890
1.21

Drury(7.05)
.416
.419
.402

Vanek(7.142)
.746
.877
.780

Kopitar(6.8)
.573
.476
.549

Gomez(7.357)
.603
.545
.667

Thornton(7.2)
.873
.744
.817

These statistics are just plain wrong. Thornton hasn't been under a point per game since 2004 when he had 73 points in 77 games. Kopitar had 81 points in 82 games this year, but you say he just slightly above a point every other game?

But you want to talk contract, you have to look at the context of when they signed, not how they're doing now. Drury and Gomez are outliers based on Sather's stupidity, as is Vanek based on the stupidity of the only man who could possibly match Sather in the stupid category, Kevin Lowe. Iginla's contract kicked in 2 years ago after his 2nd consecutive 90-point season, one where he scored 50 goals. Thornton is in a completely different world compared to Carter. His 'bad' season from 2 years ago matches Carter's career year. Kopitar got his contract because the Kings had to reach the cap floor somehow. Same reason they got Smyth last offseason. Spezza signed his contract after his 3-year run where is worst season for points was still higher than Carter's best season. The only comparison to Carter that could be made is Marleau, and the 6.8 comes after setting career highs in goals 2 straight years and nearly breaking his career high in points last year.

So unless Carter breaks his career high in goals and/or points this year, I don't expect anything higher than Briere status, which is completely manageable. And if he does beat his career high for goals and points, then I would say he's well worth the $6.8M.

 

[chy1127]

Carter, if healthy will be right aroung 40 goals and 80 points. It will be interesting to see if he is on the Wing or Center. If he does this he will be around $6-$6.5. Since he is a RFA we would get some decent picks. Last thing we would want to see is a Niemi situation where he becomes a UFA and we get nothing in return.

 

[awaz]

These statistics are just plain wrong. Thornton hasn't been under a point per game since 2004 when he had 73 points in 77 games. Kopitar had 81 points in 82 games this year, but you say he just slightly above a point every other game?

But you want to talk contract, you have to look at the context of when they signed, not how they're doing now. Drury and Gomez are outliers based on Sather's stupidity, as is Vanek based on the stupidity of the only man who could possibly match Sather in the stupid category, Kevin Lowe. Iginla's contract kicked in 2 years ago after his 2nd consecutive 90-point season, one where he scored 50 goals. Thornton is in a completely different world compared to Carter. His 'bad' season from 2 years ago matches Carter's career year. Kopitar got his contract because the Kings had to reach the cap floor somehow. Same reason they got Smyth last offseason. Spezza signed his contract after his 3-year run where is worst season for points was still higher than Carter's best season. The only comparison to Carter that could be made is Marleau, and the 6.8 comes after setting career highs in goals 2 straight years and nearly breaking his career high in points last year.

So unless Carter breaks his career high in goals and/or points this year, I don't expect anything higher than Briere status, which is completely manageable. And if he does beat his career high for goals and points, then I would say he's well worth the $6.8M.

Joe Thornton, Sharks - Stats - NHL.com - Players

those are the numbers i got for thornton, all the stats i used came from NHL.com's stat page.. so if they're wrong then i apologize.. and i'm curious as to where you collect your stats

and you're arguing about 500k.. 6.5-7.. both are too much for the flyers if leino continues to play like he did in the playoffs, and giroux needs a raise..

 

[scottflyers88]

we already went over the numbers. and the flyers could get more room by letting a guy like carle or coburn go.

 

[anderwho2513]

Joe Thornton, Sharks - Stats - NHL.com - Players

those are the numbers i got for thornton, all the stats i used came from NHL.com's stat page.. so if they're wrong then i apologize.. and i'm curious as to where you collect your stats

and you're arguing about 500k.. 6.5-7.. both are too much for the flyers if leino continues to play like he did in the playoffs, and giroux needs a raise..

Thornton had 125 points in 81 games, 114 in 82, 96 in 82, 86 in 82, and 89 in 79. All are over a point per game, but you have him listed between .75 points per game and .9, well below where is actually is. I'll leave you to get your calculator back out.

And no, Leino will not continue to play the way he did in the playoffs. As I have showed on many occasions, he is not a goalscorer. He is a Scott Gomez kind of player. All but 1 or 2 of his goals in the playoffs were horribly soft, incredible bounces off at least 1 defender, or erroneously credited to him. He won't break the bank and he certainly won't be the reason we lose a Carter or Giroux.

And, as both Scott and I have said before, including in this thread by the former, either Coburn or Carle is in all likelihood be traded.

 

[awaz]

the past 3 seasons joe thornton had 89 in 79, 86 in 82, 96 in 82.. it has nothing to do with my calculator and everything to do with where you're getting your numbers.. i said i was just looking at the last 3 seasons

i'm not trying to say carter has to be moved.. my two points are he's going to make 7 mil next year, IMO.. and IMO it would've been a better move to trade carter, then to trade gagne.. i'm not saying its the worst decision ever, cause carter IS a good player.. i'm just saying as far as managing the cap it would've been better to trade carter

and as far as leino goes, i wasn't even thinking about him as a goal scorer.. he attracted the puck more than anyone on the team.. he controlled the puck well and set guys up.. regardless he'll make a lot more than the 900k or so that he makes now

 

[anderwho2513]

the past 3 seasons joe thornton had 89 in 79, 86 in 82, 96 in 82.. it has nothing to do with my calculator and everything to do with where you're getting your numbers.. i said i was just looking at the last 3 seasons

Alright, you made me get my calculator out.

1.13
1.05
1.17

Those seem a bit higher than your numbers, eh? You want me to do Kopitar's, too?

 

[awaz]

Alright, you made me get my calculator out.

1.13
1.05
1.17

Those seem a bit higher than your numbers, eh? You want me to do Kopitar's, too?

you keep going with the calculator.. i can do the numbers you're pulling perfectly fine.. i want to know where you're getting them..

show me where you're finding thorton getting those numbers in the past 3 seasons

EDIT:: apparently i was having trouble w/ NHL.com site.. checked like 17 times and now i'm seeing different stuff.. my apologies on the numbers being incorrect.. still no need for the calculator rambling.. i thought it was pretty clear i was finding different numbers than you.. so please insult my intelligence in the correct manner

wow re-read my post and i had the right numbers the last time.. off day for me.. mixing up avatar and inception, cant read numbers right.. i suck

and i still think carter will get 7, regardless of all this

 

[ProppRules]

I can't believe the basis of this argument is that Homer screwed up the Cap by assembling too many good players...