Malcolm Mitchell on the trading block

[Shoeshine Boy]

Hell yeah, IMO. Look at it this way...if you could guarantee you would win the SB every year, and the tradeoff was not being allowed to ever pick in the 4th round of the draft, wouldn't you do that in a cocaine heartbeat? One 4th rounder is easily worth one SB win.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Look at the reality...from 2000-2014, Bill drafted 20 players in the 4th round. Know how many of those guys got a second contract with the Pats? 5 - Asante Samuel, Stephen Gostkowski, Jarvis Green, Aaron Hernandez, and James White. 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 role players, and 1 guy who might've been a Pro Bowler if he wasn't an insane murderer. And that's for one of if not the best drafters on the planet. The reality is if you just get 4 years of a useful role player out of a 4th rounder, that's a good ROI because statistically at that point in the draft it's at least 50-50 you're picking a guy that will never be a useful player at all. While we all dream on it being a legit 50-50 chance that every pick is a future HOF'er, that's not the reality. At all.

 

[YankeeRebel]

You don't think a SB win is worth a 4th round pick? 4th rounders really aren't all that valuable if you look past the "lottery ticket" aspect to what you can really expect to add your team from a historical perspective.

I think you are giving him a lot more credit than he deserves.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Agree to disagree, then...I'll happily take one clutch performance out of a 4th rounder that helped secure a SB win. That's better ROI than what you should ordinarily expect from a 4th round pick.

 

[YankeeRebel]

As a fan...He came through in the SB when we needed him and I would have paid a 1st rounder for that...at the time.
As an armchair GM...One game, even the SB I have to really think hard if the value is there.
Would a veteran be worth a 4th round pick in a trade if he were to only have one good game, even a SB???

The problem with the train of thought of he won is a SB is that it implies he made some spectacular game winning plays. He did his job, period so did the O Line which allowed TB time, and so did TB by tossing him the ball. Did he make a contribution? Of course he did but he hasn't done jack squat since then. You also have to ask yourself how many other receivers could have made the same play. And remember he was not drawing double teams nor did he command the # 1 corner on him. The stars aligned for him all there is to it IMO.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Statistically "jack squat" should be your baseline expectation for what a 4th rounder will ever contribute.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Statistically "jack squat" should be your baseline expectation for what a 4th rounder will ever contribute.

Yeah with that I simply do not agree.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

DraftHistory.com

Give it a look some time and then ask yourself again whether or not you still agree with it.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

7 out of 37 players drafted in the 4th round in 2015 are currently projected starters for the team that drafted them (19%). Only 1 has made a Pro Bowl. (note - Pats did really well here and got 2 of the 7 starters)

21/37 (57%) are either off the team that drafted them and fighting for a job elsewhere, or out of the league altogether.

Like I said....statistically you're much more likely to get Jack Squat than a real contributor in the 4th round.

 

[YankeeRebel]

DraftHistory.com

Give it a look some time and then ask yourself again whether or not you still agree with it.

Yeah I do

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Well if you can read through that list and still come to the conclusion that more than half the players on it contributed more to the teams that drafted them than Mitchell has contributed to the Pats, I guess we'll just have to leave it at that.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Well if you can read through that list and still come to the conclusion that more than half the players on it contributed more to the teams that drafted them than Mitchell has contributed to the Pats, I guess we'll just have to leave it at that.

Look your premise is that any guy taken in the 4th round has no real value we should not expect a lot from him. There is not a GM in league that on draft day say's, " well hell boys it's round 4 it's all trash from here out, Ya Get what Ya Get". There is value on round 4 and you certainly hope to get more than 14 games and 32 catches before he sits out.

Here take a gander at this. Best late-round NFL draft steals since merger you just don't take a guy and say screw it you get what you get. So did I expect more than 14 games and 32 receptions, yes I sure did. And I hope all this chatter of him being on the blocks is BS. But let's not pretend he's earned his pay yet, cause I don't feel that way.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

No my premise is that just because their are some late round gems doesn't mean that it should be your expectation that that's what you'll get. The odds of doing so are incredibly low. Of course you always hope for more but in reality if you get someone who provides any meaningful contribution in the 4th round, you're ahead of the game on the real value of the pick. Whether he's earned his money or not is kind of another story, but there we're talking about someone who's been paid about $1.5mm so far while consuming something less than a half a percent of the salary cap.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

The problem with the train of thought of he won is a SB is that it implies he made some spectacular game winning plays. He did his job, period so did the O Line which allowed TB time, and so did TB by tossing him the ball. Did he make a contribution? Of course he did but he hasn't done jack squat since then. You also have to ask yourself how many other receivers could have made the same play. And remember he was not drawing double teams nor did he command the # 1 corner on him. The stars aligned for him all there is to it IMO.

Yes.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

And I'll go back to the lottery ticket comparison. You spend a buck on a ticket it's easy to think of it in the binary outcome of winning or not winning. But the real expected odds of winning the jackpot are significantly lower than 50-50 so your real expectation should be that you're holding a worthless piece of paper. But maybe instead of winning the multimillion dollar jackpot you win a thousand bucks. It wasn't your preferred outcome but still a better return on your investment than you should expect statistically.

 

[Southieinnc]

We have so many issues (concerns?) at Receiver right now, The WR's we keep better be viable. The only way you can keep MM is:
IR him or,
Let him play 1st 4 games until Julian gets back,
He is able to keep playing but 1 of the others does not pan out?
Lots to work out this offseason with plenty of talent to be great or "good enough?"

 

[BigKen]

Problem is yhat he's not in pads. He's over on the conditioning field.

 

[BigKen]

ESPN Boston is reporting that Malcolm Mitchell has been released by the New England Patriots.

After catching 7 passes for 63 yards in Super Bowl LI against the Atlanta Falcons and insuring himself a place in the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, Mitchell's career with the Pats is over. After the SB he had multiple surgical procedures to repair a number of different knee problems. He missed the entire 2017 season and worked very hard trying to rehab the knee. Everyone hoped that he'd be back in 2018, but the knee just has not responded to the level that he must be at to play professional football. The Patriots felt that he is pretty much done and made the decision to release him today.