Lincecum Vs. Hernandez

[NWinAZ]

Coming off the re-signing of Timmy for 2 years at $35M, I find it interesting to compare the two.


Timmy's contract will run through age 31 so here is a comparison of the two by age 31 year:


Lincecum will have earned $99M through his age 31 season.
Henandez will have earned $163M through his age 31 season.


We laugh at Timmy's extension, I know I did, but look what they have paid for a 2 time Cy Young winner who helped win 2 World Series Titles vs a guy who has never pitched in the post season.


I am not comparing the two pitchers, but comparing their worth and ultimate achievements. Would Felix have helped win those two titles? Sure. Could have M's been better by using that extra $64M (if they had Timmy instead of Felix) by adding better players? Possibly.



The one thing I do know is that Timmy peaked way too soon to benefit from his early success. If he does what he did in his first two seasons say in his final seasons of his arbitration years, then he potentially gets a $150-200M deal.

 

[johnfree63]

Coming off the re-signing of Timmy for 2 years at $35M, I find it interesting to compare the two.


Timmy's contract will run through age 31 so here is a comparison of the two by age 31 year:


Lincecum will have earned $99M through his age 31 season.
Henandez will have earned $163M through his age 31 season.


We laugh at Timmy's extension, I know I did, but look what they have paid for a 2 time Cy Young winner who helped win 2 World Series Titles vs a guy who has never pitched in the post season.


I am not comparing the two pitchers, but comparing their worth and ultimate achievements. Would Felix have helped win those two titles? Sure. Could have M's been better by using that extra $64M (if they had Timmy instead of Felix) by adding better players? Possibly.



The one thing I do know is that Timmy peaked way too soon to benefit from his early success. If he does what he did in his first two seasons say in his final seasons of his arbitration years, then he potentially gets a $150-200M deal.

You forget that Felix will pitch 4 more seasons then Lincecum by the time Felix is 31. Felix has just had more time to make more money.

 

[BigDDude]

You forget that Felix will pitch 4 more seasons then Lincecum by the time Felix is 31. Felix has just had more time to make more money.

And, Hernandez has the build and makeup to have a nice long career. With slim Timmy Jim, I think he has already peaked, and, I think the Giants are paying him more because they feel they have to, vs. really wanting to.

 

[NWinAZ]

Point being missed (at least point I had in my mind).

1- We are paying 70% more for a guy that has lead us to no playoffs while another team that is actually well run spends 70% less on a player that for 2 titles. One player does not make a team, but investing so highly on one player and scrimping elsewhere gets you a fan favorite and no playoffs.

2- The other point was that if Timmy played average ball for first few years and then exploded he would be getting a $150-$200M deal. He had the misfortune to have pitched lights out his first few years which probably cost him his health (lots of innings early on in his career along with post season games) which cost him his value after being burned out physically.

As far as Felix having more time to make more money, that really isn't the reason. He worked his way up to his current status gradually and earned the large deal because of timing. He was on a bad team needing a face to the organization while Timmy exploded right away, but was under rookie contract and on a team that he was just a part of a winning organization. They didn't have to pay him because of his contract and didn't feel the need to do so because if he walked eventually he was replaceable because of the teams talent level and the fact he declined when he was able to collect.

Just my opinion.

 

[SeattleCoug]

If we don't end up making the playoffs sometime during Felix's contract then it will be a huge waste. The reason you pay a pitcher that money is to lead you into October and be a hero in Game 1 or Game 7.
Paying that money for a guy that only pitches once or twice week for team that cant even score for him 90% of the time is a huge waste.
However if the strategy for signing him for marketing reasons such as the Kings Court and other novelties like that then I guess good for us.
It will likely just be another offseason where we have our wish list of potential free agents and we will watch them sign elsewhere one by one.

 

[cezero]

Lincecum's enormous contract is for a bunch of intangibles....his relationship with catchers, his leadership, his 2 rings and 2 Cy Young awards which are a big part of the Giants' culture of winning/institutional memory, and of course a reward for what he has contributed to the team. Plus he just threw a no-hitter, and was showing some signs of performing better.

Long term contracts like Felix's always tend to graduate/increase salary through the end the contract. These mega long-term contracts are given to players in their primes, and exactly nobody expects them to actually perform better 7-10 years after their prime than they are performing at the time they sign the contract. Felix will still only be 33 when he hits the last year of his contract, and he may still be great, but it's completely realistic for him to be off his mid-late 20s form.

Howard Lincoln, himself, said that fans should show up for the wonderful, wholesome atmosphere of the ballpark, and for Felix. Felix's contract was an investment that they'll end up making a lot more money off of than they would if they hadn't signed him. There is literally nothing else on the team that's all-star caliber outside of Iwakuma.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Point being missed (at least point I had in my mind).

1- We are paying 70% more for a guy that has lead us to no playoffs while another team that is actually well run spends 70% less on a player that for 2 titles. One player does not make a team, but investing so highly on one player and scrimping elsewhere gets you a fan favorite and no playoffs.

But see Felix Hernandez cannot lead us to the playoffs alone.

Tim Lincecum had a much better supporting cast. That is the problem with comparing their playoff appearances.

 

[NWinAZ]

But see Felix Hernandez cannot lead us to the playoffs alone.

Tim Lincecum had a much better supporting cast. That is the problem with comparing their playoff appearances.

That is exactly my point. Why spend so much on a guy when it takes a team to win? Felix was a business move (Kings Court and what have you) not a baseball move. He is great no doubt, but trading him for 4 or 5 high ceiling guys and using the $20M per year on a couple good vets would have been a better baseball move for a team rebuilding. Don't get me wrong, the best baseball move would have been to keep him, continue to add via the draft, and then sign 4 or 5 MLB vets to contribute and try to win now...but none of us ever thought they would really do that did we?

 

[seahawksfan234]

That is exactly my point. Why spend so much on a guy when it takes a team to win? Felix was a business move (Kings Court and what have you) not a baseball move. He is great no doubt, but trading him for 4 or 5 high ceiling guys and using the $20M per year on a couple good vets would have been a better baseball move for a team rebuilding. Don't get me wrong, the best baseball move would have been to keep him, continue to add via the draft, and then sign 4 or 5 MLB vets to contribute and try to win now...but none of us ever thought they would really do that did we?

The problem with trading him for 4 or 5 "high ceiling guys" is the uncertainty.

Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley at one point each of these guys were "high ceiling guys" who were also considered "top prospects"

Jesus Montero: At one point was ranked the #3 prospect in MLB
Justin Smoak: At one point was ranked the #13 prospect in MLB
Dustin Ackley: At one point was ranked the #12 prospect in MLB

These are 3 fine examples of the risk that comes with trading for "high ceiling guys" and whatever package we would get for Felix Hernandez would be unlikely to include 3 guys ranked that highly as I don't believe there is a team with 3 guys ranked as high as Montero, Smoak and Ackley were.

If the Mariners could somehow get 5 quality players for Hernandez I would do it. But fact is you trade for 5 of those prospects maybe 1 becomes an above average player, another is a fringe starter and the other 3 are mediocre. Then you are worse off then when you started with Felix and his salary.

 

[johnfree63]

The problem with trading him for 4 or 5 "high ceiling guys" is the uncertainty.

Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley at one point each of these guys were "high ceiling guys" who were also considered "top prospects"

Jesus Montero: At one point was ranked the #3 prospect in MLB
Justin Smoak: At one point was ranked the #13 prospect in MLB
Dustin Ackley: At one point was ranked the #12 prospect in MLB

These are 3 fine examples of the risk that comes with trading for "high ceiling guys" and whatever package we would get for Felix Hernandez would be unlikely to include 3 guys ranked that highly as I don't believe there is a team with 3 guys ranked as high as Montero, Smoak and Ackley were.

If the Mariners could somehow get 5 quality players for Hernandez I would do it. But fact is you trade for 5 of those prospects maybe 1 becomes an above average player, another is a fringe starter and the other 3 are mediocre. Then you are worse off then when you started with Felix and his salary.

Only Montero was considered "high ceiling". Ackley and Smoak were considered "MLB ready".

 

[blstoker]

Ok, again this isn't as much a comparison of Lincecum and Hernandez as it appears to be a comparison between front offices. So, in essence the comparison is whether Felix is worth it if the team doesn't increase the budget, as Lincecum's salary isn't nearly as big a handicap to the Giants $140 million as Felix's is to the Mariners $70 million.

Really, Felix wasn't signed to win anything for the Mariners. He was signed to keep the fan favorite in town so fans will come to the games and buy the merchandise. It's the same reason Ichiro was paid what he was paid.

Lincecum will actually take a $5 million pay cut next year to be in San Francisco.

Statistically, Felix is the better pitcher even with his less than stellar supporting cast. But, since the Giants have allowed Lincecum to have a better cast, thus the Giants have 2 rings with Lincecum where the Mariners have 2 winning seasons with Felix.

In the end, Felix made 27% of the Mariner's player budget, while Lincecum made 16% of the Giants. It doesn't matter that up to this point of their careers that Lincecum has made $2 million dollars more than Felix has (and Felix has pitched 2 more seasons), what matters in this comparison is that the Mariners front office isn't willing to let the team become more than it currently is. As a Mariners fan, you just kind of have to accept that until there is a real change at the top, this is what you get.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Only Montero was considered "high ceiling". Ackley and Smoak were considered "MLB ready".

Still considered top prospects, which was my point.

 

[wazzu31]

Still considered top prospects, which was my point.

Which is on our glorified scout posing as the GM. You need an identity as a ball club, they have none. The top prospects are pitchers, then we got Smoak who was a solid prospect but a red flag on his being demoted after not being able to hit in fricking Arlington. Then Dustin Ackley who they spent a ton of time developing him as a 2nd baseman even though the only offensive prospects in the organization were middle infielders. They got lucky in that Seager is a servicable 3B but still doesn't help the fact they cannot develop talent.

 

[NWinAZ]

The problem with trading him for 4 or 5 "high ceiling guys" is the uncertainty.

Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley at one point each of these guys were "high ceiling guys" who were also considered "top prospects"

Jesus Montero: At one point was ranked the #3 prospect in MLB
Justin Smoak: At one point was ranked the #13 prospect in MLB
Dustin Ackley: At one point was ranked the #12 prospect in MLB

These are 3 fine examples of the risk that comes with trading for "high ceiling guys" and whatever package we would get for Felix Hernandez would be unlikely to include 3 guys ranked that highly as I don't believe there is a team with 3 guys ranked as high as Montero, Smoak and Ackley were.

If the Mariners could somehow get 5 quality players for Hernandez I would do it. But fact is you trade for 5 of those prospects maybe 1 becomes an above average player, another is a fringe starter and the other 3 are mediocre. Then you are worse off then when you started with Felix and his salary.

I agree 100%, but a stingy team like M's don't have any other options but to take a chance and see if the high ceiling guys can all develop at the same time and win. I mean their philosophy is to build with a farm system so why would you pay a guy like Felix for that? They would be, and are, just wasting his best years and they will see no return if they ever decide to deal him and IF he allows them to deal him per his new contract. It just seems to me they have one philosophy they want to sell us but then go a different way when they feel they can make a buck on a guy. Make a plan and work it til it dies or come up with a new plan. Just don't mix plans because that doesn't work. Red Sox had a plan last year and it was a disaster so they went a different route and it turned out pretty well. It also shows you can spend money on free agency and turn around your team for the good.

 

[wazzu31]

Only Montero was considered "high ceiling". Ackley and Smoak were considered "MLB ready".

Totally disagree with this. Ackley was considered more of a high ceiling as he was everything everyone touted about Montero except the power numbers and Ackley had considerable potential at becoming a solid 2nd baseman. Montero was always considered a huge work in progress as a catcher with no ability to change positions. A 2 tool guy, while considered to have huge potential with average and power is not more of a high ceiling as a guy who is touted as a 4 tool player.

 

[NWinAZ]

A 2 tool guy, while considered to have huge potential with average and power is not more of a high ceiling as a guy who is touted as a 4 tool player.

Edgar was a pretty good 2 tool guy. Not many 4 tool guys I would trade him for.