Lincecum >= other super aces?

[gp956]

I get the money, but you are assuming who ever else you buy with that same money will be a sure thing. Any player can have his game go to hell or get injured.

Point is there is a fan connection with Lincecum and you have to take that into account. Sure there is a chance he doesn't live up to his contract, so is there with everyone else (obviously Zito didn't work out too well right?) but if you let Timmy walk then you will definitely piss off a majority of the fan base. That's a fact.

I'm not saying it is the right or wrong move to keep him but it is pretty easy to figure out how the fan base will react and you know management takes that into consideration.

I remember how pissed off I was when Sabean traded Matt Williams for Tavares, Kent, and Vizcaino. I got over it.

 

[tzill]

I wouldn't give him CC money, but if 5/100 is all it took, then I don't see how you can turn that down.

Shitty June or not, he's still top 10 in ERA, IP, and K's this year.

You don't just let a guy with a career sub 3 era walk away without a fight,

However, if he is a bitch about negotiating during the season and wants to wait for FA, then trade his ass. Granted, that's if we're out of it. Which could very well be the case. The offense is not going to improve exponentially between now and '13.

What we don't need to do is hold onto him and Cain if we're like the Rockies were this year at the break. Trade one for bats, and the other for pitching. Congratulations, we just rebuilt the club with two players.

Doesn't need to. It simply needs to be league average and we're WS contenders. I think this lineup:

CF Crisp
2B Franchez
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Pill/Huff
RF Nate
LF Belt
SS Craw/FA

can be league average in 2012. I think this lineup:

CF Brown
LF Crisp
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Belt
RF Nate
SS Craw
2B Panik

Can be league average in 2013. And it would certainly be one of the speediest lineups in baseball.

 

[calsnowskier]

Doesn't need to. It simply needs to be league average and we're WS contenders. I think this lineup:

CF Crisp
2B Franchez
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Pill/Huff
RF Nate
LF Belt
SS Craw/FA

can be league average in 2012. I think this lineup:

CF Brown
LF Crisp
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Belt
RF Nate
SS Craw
2B Panik

Can be league average in 2013. And it would certainly be one of the speediest lineups in baseball.

I like he progression there. It makes a lot of sense.

I would go one further, though, and say that this offense CAN get exponentially better BY 2012!!

Add in Posey and Franchez, with a contract/even year from Huff, with a slightly regressed Panda (just for arguments sake) and the FA du jour (Crisp), add to that Belt in Left from day 1 and we have a slightly better than average offense, I think.

You HAVE to account for a slight regression from the pitching, though, so we will still have to battle with the worms and the pebbles for the West crown.

 

[Stokes1931]

I like he progression there. It makes a lot of sense.

I would go one further, though, and say that this offense CAN get exponentially better BY 2012!!

Add in Posey and Franchez, with a contract/even year from Huff, with a slightly regressed Panda (just for arguments sake) and the FA du jour (Crisp), add to that Belt in Left from day 1 and we have a slightly better than average offense, I think.

You HAVE to account for a slight regression from the pitching, though, so we will still have to battle with the worms and the pebbles for the West crown.

Not to be picky, but while the offense will be much better by being merely average, I don't concede the pitching will regress much.

2011 projected = 570 runs allowed

2010 = 583 runs allowed

2009 = 611 runs allowed

2008 = 759 runs allowed

2007 = 720 runs allowed

I think this pitching staff can be even better. If Zito does not start anymore, MadBum will be better, Cain and Timmy will be themselves, and Surkamp will be a decent 5th starter.

And, I think the team will pitch better with Crawdad at short, and with some runs being scored for them. I am simply amazed at the historical performance of this pitching staff, given the incredibly poor run support they have received.

It will be a most interesting off season as we see how Sabean tries to address the horrific offensive woes, and whether Posey can come back as a catcher, etc.

 

[mistgl]

Doesn't need to. It simply needs to be league average and we're WS contenders. I think this lineup:

CF Crisp
2B Franchez
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Pill/Huff
RF Nate
LF Belt
SS Craw/FA

can be league average in 2012. I think this lineup:

CF Brown
LF Crisp
C Posey
3B Panda
1B Belt
RF Nate
SS Craw
2B Panik

Can be league average in 2013. And it would certainly be one of the speediest lineups in baseball.

League average I see as a possibility. My main point was that I don't want to see us hold onto them like Schmidt if we suck and they are unwilling to negotiate.

 

[SF11704]

This may be reaching but I feel that true 'team' sports have a very unique psychological component. No matter what you are capable of delivering you need the rest of the team 'team' to contribute to YOUR success. Hitters have an advantage inn this area. The team can continue to lose and you can still feel successful about yourself. Your average and all associated stats can continue to rise. You can feel good about what you SEE. Your stats reflect what you have contributed. Pitching is an interesting position as it relates to this approach. YOU can pitch great and YOU still get the loss. Having a 2.75 ERA with 13 or so losses is not going to make a pitcher very happy over the long haul. I'd tend to think that it takes its toll emotionally and can affect focus quite a bit. I think I posted once before that almost 25% of our losses occur with the opposition scoring 3 or fewer runs. Has to take it's toll on our pitchers.

 

[msgkings322]

I get the money, but you are assuming who ever else you buy with that same money will be a sure thing. Any player can have his game go to hell or get injured.

Point is there is a fan connection with Lincecum and you have to take that into account. Sure there is a chance he doesn't live up to his contract, so is there with everyone else (obviously Zito didn't work out too well right?) but if you let Timmy walk then you will definitely piss off a majority of the fan base. That's a fact.

I'm not saying it is the right or wrong move to keep him but it is pretty easy to figure out how the fan base will react and you know management takes that into consideration.

Totally agree, and I lean on overpaying him to stay, but if they chose not to you would think they would deal him for a boatload of prospects not just letting him walk.

 

[msgkings322]

This may be reaching but I feel that true 'team' sports have a very unique psychological component. No matter what you are capable of delivering you need the rest of the team 'team' to contribute to YOUR success. Hitters have an advantage inn this area. The team can continue to lose and you can still feel successful about yourself. Your average and all associated stats can continue to rise. You can feel good about what you SEE. Your stats reflect what you have contributed. Pitching is an interesting position as it relates to this approach. YOU can pitch great and YOU still get the loss. Having a 2.75 ERA with 13 or so losses is not going to make a pitcher very happy over the long haul. I'd tend to think that it takes its toll emotionally and can affect focus quite a bit. I think I posted once before that almost 25% of our losses occur with the opposition scoring 3 or fewer runs. Has to take it's toll on our pitchers.

+1

 

[msgkings322]

If 20M is the going rate for a 5/6, I would say 24M for a 3 is a steal...

But you are paying that 24 for 5/6 years, and during the second half maybe you have a solid but not great pitcher...

 

[Heathbar012]

But you are paying that 24 for 5/6 years, and during the second half maybe you have a solid but not great pitcher...

... if he doesn't inexplicably break his toe.

 

[mistgl]

But you are paying that 24 for 5/6 years, and during the second half maybe you have a solid but not great pitcher...

He's worth 5/100.

I don't want the Giants giving him his actual value or more in a bidding war. No offense to the Freak, and he may never slow down, but he has had an off month 2 years in a row now, and that's kind of scary. Obviously last August was worse than this June, but that doesn't really make me feel any better.

As I have stated many times, if him and Cain don't want to negotiate before the OS in their respective walk years, trade them.

Considering we could probably get two top prospects per, and an average throw in per, walking away with comp picks would be a crime.