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Lincecum >= other super aces?

msgkings322

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You guys probably know what I'm thinking here...is he going to live up to the scouting reports that said he's too small to have a long, all-year awesome career? He came out on fire of course, won his 2 Cys, but now he seems to falter every August and turn into a good pitcher (from a great one). One that maybe isn't worth the 5/100 or more he will command in a couple of years...

Not sure where I stand on it but there is some concern IMO.

:think:
 

filosofy29

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You guys probably know what I'm thinking here...is he going to live up to the scouting reports that said he's too small to have a long, all-year awesome career? He came out on fire of course, won his 2 Cys, but now he seems to falter every August and turn into a good pitcher (from a great one). One that maybe isn't worth the 5/100 or more he will command in a couple of years...

Not sure where I stand on it but there is some concern IMO.

:think:

He faltered this August???
 

msgkings322

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He faltered this August???

Well, not like 2010 but his last 2 starts, with everything on the line, he laid eggs. Not that other pitchers don't, and of course he was very good in the WS.

But am I dreaming this or does it feel like he runs out of gas a lot?
 

msgkings322

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Went back and looked, he was really good this August, except his 2 starts vs AZ(!)

Aug 2 and Sep 3 (yeah not August but you get the picture)

He also seemingly (and famously) sent a message to the offense that has let him down all year on Aug 29 with that awful Cub game.
 

filosofy29

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Well, not like 2010 but his last 2 starts, with everything on the line, he laid eggs. Not that other pitchers don't, and of course he was very good in the WS.

But am I dreaming this or does it feel like he runs out of gas a lot?

I don't know. It's a good question. I think his running out of gas is a little exaggerated. He had a terrible August last year, but how do you get that out of gas and then go on to have a September and October like he did after you were that fatigued? Also, looking at his stats this past August, he had 5 out of 6 quality starts (should have been at least 4-1, possibly 5-1).

To me, he seemed to lose his mental toughness a bit and also his mechanics last August. Most of his problems seemed to stem from a lack of control and then he had to throw a meatball up there to get a strike (if memory serves me correctly). I think if he was as tired as everybody proclaimed, he couldn't have done what he did after August (in my humble opinion). Although admittedly, I haven't done extensive research (or any at all for that matter).
 
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SFAnthem

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Lincecum should have ~ 18 wins with any semblance of an offense.

Not many pitchers bring it every year and *knock on wood* There have been far more 6'5" 220 studs that have busted/broken down.
 

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You guys probably know what I'm thinking here...is he going to live up to the scouting reports that said he's too small to have a long, all-year awesome career? He came out on fire of course, won his 2 Cys, but now he seems to falter every August and turn into a good pitcher (from a great one). One that maybe isn't worth the 5/100 or more he will command in a couple of years...

Not sure where I stand on it but there is some concern IMO.

:think:

I wouldn't give him CC money, but if 5/100 is all it took, then I don't see how you can turn that down.

Shitty June or not, he's still top 10 in ERA, IP, and K's this year.

You don't just let a guy with a career sub 3 era walk away without a fight,

However, if he is a bitch about negotiating during the season and wants to wait for FA, then trade his ass. Granted, that's if we're out of it. Which could very well be the case. The offense is not going to improve exponentially between now and '13.

What we don't need to do is hold onto him and Cain if we're like the Rockies were this year at the break. Trade one for bats, and the other for pitching. Congratulations, we just rebuilt the club with two players.
 
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I don't know. It's a good question. I think his running out of gas is a little exaggerated. He had a terrible August last year, but how do you get that out of gas and then go on to have a September and October after you were that fatigued? Also, looking at his stats this past August, he had 5 out of 6 quality starts (should have been at least 4-1, possibly 5-1).

To me, he seemed to lose his mental toughness a bit and also his mechanics last August. Most of his problems seemed to stem from a lack of control and then he had to throw a meatball up there to get a strike (if memory serves me correctly). I think if he was as tired as everybody proclaimed, he couldn't have done what he did after August (in my humble opinion). Although admittedly, I haven't done extensive research (or any at all for that matter).

True that. But most of his problems are that the team scores no runs for him. We scored in the first, and could have had more tonight, and then failed for 8 more innings. A pitcher cannot pitch well when he knows he has to pitch a shutout or else. Timmy with the lowest run support in baseball. Giants have three of the five worst run supported pitchers. :censored::censored::censored:
 

gp956

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I don't know. It's a good question. I think his running out of gas is a little exaggerated. He had a terrible August last year, but how do you get that out of gas and then go on to have a September and October after you were that fatigued? Also, looking at his stats this past August, he had 5 out of 6 quality starts (should have been at least 4-1, possibly 5-1).

To me, he seemed to lose his mental toughness a bit and also his mechanics last August. Most of his problems seemed to stem from a lack of control and then he had to throw a meatball up there to get a strike (if memory serves me correctly). I think if he was as tired as everybody proclaimed, he couldn't have done what he did after August (in my humble opinion). Although admittedly, I haven't done extensive research (or any at all for that matter).

This is 100% correct.
 

nateistheshi

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You guys probably know what I'm thinking here...is he going to live up to the scouting reports that said he's too small to have a long, all-year awesome career? He came out on fire of course, won his 2 Cys, but now he seems to falter every August and turn into a good pitcher (from a great one). One that maybe isn't worth the 5/100 or more he will command in a couple of years...

Not sure where I stand on it but there is some concern IMO.

:think:

Wasn't last year supposed to be the year that he broke down? Dave Cameron thought so. I don't see any real reason why he can't have a long career, since that's something that's just about impossible to predict regardless of what scouts say of a pitcher's frame (see Mark Prior.)

Also 5/100 is a HUGE discount from what he'd get as a FA
 

calsnowskier

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What did pedro's delivery look like? I cannot picture it.

If timmeh were to hit free agency, are there limitations to which teams would be a fit for him? Which teams would he give discounts to?

I think there are 2 teams he would give discounts to; the G's and the M's. He may, however, decide that he wants to limit himself to NY or LA. He does seem to like commercials.
 
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This from the Chron sums up Lincecum's season:

"Biggest pitch of the game," said Lincecum, who is 0-2 with a 1.66 ERA in four 2011 starts versus the Dodgers. The Giants' offense gave him five runs of support total.

Read more: Aces brilliant in Giants' 2-1 loss to Dodgers

If Sabean wants Lincecum and Cain to stay, money is not the only thing to be concerned about. He needs to get or develop some solid hitters. The Giants are on pace to score 150 less runs than last year, and last year wasn't that great, either. Pitchers, no matter how good, cannot focus and perform night in and night out when they know they will either have to pitch a shutout (be perfect) or lose.

Brad Penny has 10 wins with an ERA of 5.19, why? Because the Tiggers get him 6.66 runs per game.

Sabbathia gets 7.25 runs per game

Even Kershaw gets 5.58 runs per game

Lincecum gets 3.91 runs per game

Cain gets 4.34 runs per game

MadBum gets 4.71 runs per game

Vogelsong gets 4.78 runs per game

That's four of the bottom eight in run support for qualified starters this season. That's criminal. I am amazed at the composure of these starters, that they have not publicly ripped the FO nor their teammates.
 

msgkings322

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Wasn't last year supposed to be the year that he broke down? Dave Cameron thought so. I don't see any real reason why he can't have a long career, since that's something that's just about impossible to predict regardless of what scouts say of a pitcher's frame (see Mark Prior.)

Also 5/100 is a HUGE discount from what he'd get as a FA

I suppose so, all the more reason to be wary...
 

msgkings322

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This from the Chron sums up Lincecum's season:

"Biggest pitch of the game," said Lincecum, who is 0-2 with a 1.66 ERA in four 2011 starts versus the Dodgers. The Giants' offense gave him five runs of support total.

Read more: Aces brilliant in Giants' 2-1 loss to Dodgers

If Sabean wants Lincecum and Cain to stay, money is not the only thing to be concerned about. He needs to get or develop some solid hitters. The Giants are on pace to score 150 less runs than last year, and last year wasn't that great, either. Pitchers, no matter how good, cannot focus and perform night in and night out when they know they will either have to pitch a shutout (be perfect) or lose.

Brad Penny has 10 wins with an ERA of 5.19, why? Because the Tiggers get him 6.66 runs per game.

Sabbathia gets 7.25 runs per game

Even Kershaw gets 5.58 runs per game

Lincecum gets 3.91 runs per game

Cain gets 4.34 runs per game

MadBum gets 4.71 runs per game

Vogelsong gets 4.78 runs per game

That's four of the bottom eight in run support for qualified starters this season. That's criminal. I am amazed at the composure of these starters, that they have not publicly ripped the FO nor their teammates.

This seems correct to me. If they an afford to have actual hitting here, they should shell out what it takes to keep him. He's a perfect fit for us, marketing wise and every other-wise.
 

msgkings322

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I don't know. It's a good question. I think his running out of gas is a little exaggerated. He had a terrible August last year, but how do you get that out of gas and then go on to have a September and October after you were that fatigued? Also, looking at his stats this past August, he had 5 out of 6 quality starts (should have been at least 4-1, possibly 5-1).

To me, he seemed to lose his mental toughness a bit and also his mechanics last August. Most of his problems seemed to stem from a lack of control and then he had to throw a meatball up there to get a strike (if memory serves me correctly). I think if he was as tired as everybody proclaimed, he couldn't have done what he did after August (in my humble opinion). Although admittedly, I haven't done extensive research (or any at all for that matter).

Another good post, thanks for your answers, guys...

Another example of why this site rules.
 

Slimpikins

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As a casual fan I say that you have to re-sign him. It looks like the franchise is just being cheap if you let him go.

And the real question is does this team really get better by losing Lincecum?
 

msgkings322

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As a casual fan I say that you have to re-sign him. It looks like the franchise is just being cheap if you let him go.

And the real question is does this team really get better by losing Lincecum?

It's a little more complicated. If he signs for 5/120, is the team worse because now you can't afford as much around him? And is he still an ace in the last 3 years of the deal, when he's 32+ in age, with that small frame, or are you now paying $24 mil for a 3rd starter?
 

gp956

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This from the Chron sums up Lincecum's season:

"Biggest pitch of the game," said Lincecum, who is 0-2 with a 1.66 ERA in four 2011 starts versus the Dodgers. The Giants' offense gave him five runs of support total.

Read more: Aces brilliant in Giants' 2-1 loss to Dodgers

If Sabean wants Lincecum and Cain to stay, money is not the only thing to be concerned about. He needs to get or develop some solid hitters. The Giants are on pace to score 150 less runs than last year, and last year wasn't that great, either. Pitchers, no matter how good, cannot focus and perform night in and night out when they know they will either have to pitch a shutout (be perfect) or lose.

Brad Penny has 10 wins with an ERA of 5.19, why? Because the Tiggers get him 6.66 runs per game.

Sabbathia gets 7.25 runs per game

Even Kershaw gets 5.58 runs per game

Lincecum gets 3.91 runs per game

Cain gets 4.34 runs per game

MadBum gets 4.71 runs per game

Vogelsong gets 4.78 runs per game

That's four of the bottom eight in run support for qualified starters this season. That's criminal. I am amazed at the composure of these starters, that they have not publicly ripped the FO nor their teammates.

I don't know how the Giants scouting organization is structured, but I'd be tempted to split it into two divisions, one for hitting and one for pitching. Then you can clean house if one of divisions is under performing whatever internal goals have been set for it.
 

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It's a little more complicated. If he signs for 5/120, is the team worse because now you can't afford as much around him? And is he still an ace in the last 3 years of the deal, when he's 32+ in age, with that small frame, or are you now paying $24 mil for a 3rd starter?

If 20M is the going rate for a 5/6, I would say 24M for a 3 is a steal...
 

Slimpikins

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It's a little more complicated. If he signs for 5/120, is the team worse because now you can't afford as much around him? And is he still an ace in the last 3 years of the deal, when he's 32+ in age, with that small frame, or are you now paying $24 mil for a 3rd starter?

I get the money, but you are assuming who ever else you buy with that same money will be a sure thing. Any player can have his game go to hell or get injured.

Point is there is a fan connection with Lincecum and you have to take that into account. Sure there is a chance he doesn't live up to his contract, so is there with everyone else (obviously Zito didn't work out too well right?) but if you let Timmy walk then you will definitely piss off a majority of the fan base. That's a fact.

I'm not saying it is the right or wrong move to keep him but it is pretty easy to figure out how the fan base will react and you know management takes that into consideration.
 
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