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If there's one signing that could blow the lid off of our losing streak this would be the one.
Getting the bad out of the way - injuries.
To be specific - he had a series of shoulder operations that limited him to 29 starts in three years and completely wiped out his 2010 season. He followed that with 129 innings that were limited by a knee injury.
The first reason for optimism: A shoulder injury does not mean that he's prone to shoulder injuries. A knee sprain does not mean that he's prone to knee sprains. If you think the past injuries are an indication of likelihood of future injuries then I've got good news for you because he's had five seasons of 130 IP or greater, but only 3 seasons of less than 130 IP and they were all related to the same shoulder problem that seems to have been settled.
I would say - worst case - you can feel pretty good about our chances to get 130 innings or more.
The second reason for optimism: He can really throw the ball when he's healthy. Career ERA of 3.7, WHIP of about 1.3, K/9 just shy of 9.
Third reason for optimism: Our ballclub and ballpark are just about perfect for him. He's a left-handed SP with a bias toward flyballs. He’ll benefit from a switch to the non-DH league, a park that suppresses right-handed power and an outfield that covers a good deal of ground. Our expected starting trio of McC, Tabata, and Presley had a combined +10 Defensive Runs Saved and that's in spite of both Tabata and Presley not playing a full season.
Bottom line: It's not farfetched to be optimistic about his health. If he is healthy and pitches 170+ innings then he's going to win a lot of games for us.
Getting the bad out of the way - injuries.
To be specific - he had a series of shoulder operations that limited him to 29 starts in three years and completely wiped out his 2010 season. He followed that with 129 innings that were limited by a knee injury.
The first reason for optimism: A shoulder injury does not mean that he's prone to shoulder injuries. A knee sprain does not mean that he's prone to knee sprains. If you think the past injuries are an indication of likelihood of future injuries then I've got good news for you because he's had five seasons of 130 IP or greater, but only 3 seasons of less than 130 IP and they were all related to the same shoulder problem that seems to have been settled.
I would say - worst case - you can feel pretty good about our chances to get 130 innings or more.
The second reason for optimism: He can really throw the ball when he's healthy. Career ERA of 3.7, WHIP of about 1.3, K/9 just shy of 9.
Third reason for optimism: Our ballclub and ballpark are just about perfect for him. He's a left-handed SP with a bias toward flyballs. He’ll benefit from a switch to the non-DH league, a park that suppresses right-handed power and an outfield that covers a good deal of ground. Our expected starting trio of McC, Tabata, and Presley had a combined +10 Defensive Runs Saved and that's in spite of both Tabata and Presley not playing a full season.
Bottom line: It's not farfetched to be optimistic about his health. If he is healthy and pitches 170+ innings then he's going to win a lot of games for us.
