Joyner: Alex Smith deserved the Pro Bowl

[Kinzu]

Heads up on the chat, and a Pro Bowl pick - NFC West Blog - ESPN

I'm surprised this has not been posted today. KC Joyner makes a valid argument that Alex Smith had a better season than Cam Newton and deserved to get into the Pro Bowl as the alternate.

Sando gets more into the numbers with this post
Four fantasy nuggets, from Fitz to Lynch - NFC West Blog - ESPN

Joyner's guide, which is not free, runs 444 pages and includes charts and multiple text categories for potential fantasy contributors for each team.

I've provided most of the information from the chart for Alex Smith as an example. It shows Smith averaged 13.3 yards per stretch-vertical attempt (those traveling at least 20 yards) while making only five bad decisions, defined as mistakes with the football that lead to a turnover or near-turnover. Joyner considered those totals to be very good. He thought they made Smith better qualified than Cam Newton to represent the NFC in the Pro Bowl.

"It is by definition a subjective metric," Joyner writes. "But this subjectivity is held in place by a set of objective rules that limit the amount of sway the subjective side has in ruling a play as a bad decision."

Quarterbacks operating in conservative offenses should strive for bad decision rates (BDRs) of 1.5 percent or less. Those operating in more aggressive passing games would have higher rates. For Smith, we see that 26 percent of attempts qualified as vertical in nature. The percentage was 39.1 for Ben Roethlisberger, 38.5 for Eli Manning, 36.3 for Aaron Rodgers, 35.9 for Philip Rivers, 31.1 for Tom Brady and 30.2 for Matthew Stafford, to cite a few examples for high-profile passers.

Smith had an overall BDR of 1.1 in case you don't want to click on the link. Joyner said a low number like that is usually reserved for a guy like Tom Brady and should have been good enough to get Smith into the Pro Bowl over Newton.

Sando in his chat did not agree though. He basically cited Smith's lack of TD passes as the reason Cam went instead.

 

[NinerSickness]

Man... remember when a probowl invite used to mean something?

 

[Kinzu]

Man... remember when a probowl invite used to mean something?

before or after Vince Young?

 

[MHSL82]

Heads up on the chat, and a Pro Bowl pick - NFC West Blog - ESPN

I'm surprised this has not been posted today. KC Joyner makes a valid argument that Alex Smith had a better season than Cam Newton and deserved to get into the Pro Bowl as the alternate.

Sando gets more into the numbers with this post
Four fantasy nuggets, from Fitz to Lynch - NFC West Blog - ESPN



Smith had an overall BDR of 1.1 in case you don't want to click on the link. Joyner said a low number like that is usually reserved for a guy like Tom Brady and should have been good enough to get Smith into the Pro Bowl over Newton.

Sando in his chat did not agree though. He basically cited Smith's lack of TD passes as the reason Cam went instead.

I posted it in the NFC West thread because I didn't think anyone wanted a separate thread for it, but I was wrong. The BDR would likely go down the more he's called to throw, but I see him as now being pretty good at that regardless. Perhaps throwing more would have bumped him down to that 1.6 number but than give him better naked-eye stats?

Anyways, I think winning and BDR should be factors in the voting. Popularity shouldn't but always will. (Or is the Pro-Bowl chosen by fans, in which popularity absolutely has to be the metric?) Pro-bowl should be about numbers and intangibles voted by so called experts not popularity and winning and BDR should be a factor. Having said that, I'm not pushing the Smith for 2011 Pro-Bowl train. I don't believe being an alternate means all that much and Smith's 2011 at best would be an alternate, IMO... and I'm one of Alex's biggest supporters here on Sports SportsHoopla.

 

[NinerSickness]

before or after Vince Young?

Well at LEAST before Michael Vick.

 

[Bemular]

Here we go again with ESPN just pulling subjective shit out of their ass and hoping someone buys into their BS or in this case their BDR! Ugh!

 

[Kinzu]

Doh, sorry MHSL about the double post then. Pro Bowl is a fan vote, but the alternates are not. I forgot how they are picked though. I want to say they are picked by the players and coaches.

One thing to take note of on Smith though is he did not have the receivers most of those Pro Bowl QB's had. That is why so much more is expected of Smith going into this year. If he improves his play from last year with upgraded receivers then we will be an explosive offense.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Man... remember when a probowl invite used to mean something?

Lol...seriously.