Jonah Keri on the Giants' "cluster luck"

[msgkings322]

Apparently they keep stats even for something called 'cluster luck' (of course they do...)

Basically it's trying to show how teams that give up hits in bunches have worse cluster luck than teams who spread out the hits allowed. And vice versa of course, it tries to account for teams that get all their hits in bunches vs spreading them out. Another way to measure 'clutch' I guess, definitely encompassing RISP and RISP against.

The 30: Lucky or Good? «

The bad news for the Giants is they've had pretty good 'cluster luck' on the pitching side (hitting has been neutral). Meaning their pitchers have managed to get out of (self-inflicted) jams by spreading out the hits and walks they allow rather than giving up a big inning or three. The problem is these figures tend to regress to the mean so the Giants are due for some 'bad luck' with their pitchers...

I guess this is another way to remind ourselves that the Giants aren't going to win 102 games this year (on pace to now) and so they are due for some tough stretches, at some point...

Basically if you thought they were a 90 win team starting the year (like I did), and you figure that's how they will play the last 111 games (.555 win pct), they then can be projected to win 62 more games and finish with 94 wins. I'd be happy with that all things considered...

 

[msgkings322]

Also, the link gives a lot of love to the Giants, who are for now on top of Keri's weekly power rankings.

 

[calsnowskier]

"Cluster Luck" is interesting, but to call it "luck" and to say that all will regress to the mean is quite short-sighted, I think.

What this looks at is a pitchers ability to pitch effectively from the stretch. This is a completely different mechanical motion, and to ignore its affect on a pitchers effectiveness is just stupid.

 

[msgkings322]

"Cluster Luck" is interesting, but to call it "luck" and to say that all will regress to the mean is quite short-sighted, I think.

What this looks at is a pitchers ability to pitch effectively from the stretch. This is a completely different mechanical motion, and to ignore its affect on a pitchers effectiveness is just stupid.

I don't know if you read the article but I think Keri basically notes that these stats, like so many others, do indeed regress somewhat over the full 162. I'm sure they don't go all the way there, some teams will end up with better pitching clusters, due to exactly what you mention, as well as better hitting ones (I guess due to guys that just know how to hit with runners on base). But if you are an extreme outlier after game 50 you probably will see some regression over the rest of the season.

 

[MarcoPolo]

"Cluster Luck" is interesting, but to call it "luck" and to say that all will regress to the mean is quite short-sighted, I think.

What this looks at is a pitchers ability to pitch effectively from the stretch. This is a completely different mechanical motion, and to ignore its affect on a pitchers effectiveness is just stupid.

I think that at the end of the season, everybody's stats will match the average for the year.