Jonah Keri breaks it all down

[msgkings322]

He's just one guy but I've always respected him

The 30: Offseason Stock Report «

Here's his bit on the Giants:

11. San Francisco Giants

It’s an even-numbered year, so get excited. That may seem like a glib way of assessing the Giants, but it’s pretty fair: This team has gone from a World Series win to a negative run differential to a World Series win to a miserable 86-loss campaign without major changes to the core roster. If that pattern continues, last year’s underachievers should fare better in 2014.

In particular, Matt Cain (who’s coming off a 4.00 ERA, which was his worst in seven years) and Pablo Sandoval (a notorious good-year-bad-year player who’s mysteriously in fantastic shape entering his walk year) could deliver strong bounce-back seasons, while Tim Hudson should provide the kind of competent innings that Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong failed to last year. And of course, notorious deadline dealer Brian Sabean has trade chips at his disposal if the Giants are in the race come June or July and want to upgrade.

 

[calsnowskier]

He's just one guy but I've always respected him

The 30: Offseason Stock Report «

Here's his bit on the Giants:

11. San Francisco Giants

It’s an even-numbered year, so get excited. That may seem like a glib way of assessing the Giants, but it’s pretty fair: This team has gone from a World Series win to a negative run differential to a World Series win to a miserable 86-loss campaign without major changes to the core roster. If that pattern continues, last year’s underachievers should fare better in 2014.

In particular, Matt Cain (who’s coming off a 4.00 ERA, which was his worst in seven years) and Pablo Sandoval (a notorious good-year-bad-year player who’s mysteriously in fantastic shape entering his walk year) could deliver strong bounce-back seasons, while Tim Hudson should provide the kind of competent innings that Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong failed to last year. And of course, notorious deadline dealer Brian Sabean has trade chips at his disposal if the Giants are in the race come June or July and want to upgrade.

Interesting point. I think someone here mentioned this in the last couple days...

 

[msgkings322]

Interesting point. I think someone here mentioned this in the last couple days...

Actually Keri makes a good point in there talking about the Padres...the NLWest has no truly bad teams for us to beat up on, and since our chances of winning the division outright are slim, we have our work cut out for us getting a WC. The East has the Marlins, the Central the Cubs and Brewers...

 

[tzill]

Actually Keri makes a good point in there talking about the Padres...the NLWest has no truly bad teams for us to beat up on, and since our chances of winning the division outright are slim, we have our work cut out for us getting a WC. The East has the Marlins, the Central the Cubs and Brewers...

I think everyone is giving waaaaay to much credit to the Bridegrooms and their budget. We'll see if their OF and 3b positions can be productive.

 

[msgkings322]

I think everyone is giving waaaaay to much credit to the Bridegrooms and their budget. We'll see if their OF and 3b positions can be productive.

God love ya, tzill, you're a good fan, but you have orange-colored glasses on. And that's ok, your scenarios aren't impossible, just always optimistic in our favor.

So the Dodgers don't have much at third, and one of their 4 OFs might not play so hot, and that's how we're gonna take the division? When we had historically great pitching we used to opine about how pitching is the key, and we were right. Well, the Dodgers got tons of that.

Like we all agree, injuries can equalize it but barring that they are a better team.

Interestingly Keri has the Cards ranked as the best team, the Dogs #2

 

[tzill]

God love ya, tzill, you're a good fan, but you have orange-colored glasses on. And that's ok, your scenarios aren't impossible, just always optimistic in our favor.

So the Dodgers don't have much at third, and one of their 4 OFs might not play so hot, and that's how we're gonna take the division? When we had historically great pitching we used to opine about how pitching is the key, and we were right. Well, the Dodgers got tons of that.

Like we all agree, injuries can equalize it but barring that they are a better team.

Interestingly Keri has the Cards ranked as the best team, the Dogs #2

I have Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Haren/Beckett. Projected to be:

17-7 2.54
14-8 3.23
13-9 3.37
11-10 3.79
6-8 4.02

That's a nice rotation, but not phenomenal. Giants projections for Cain/Bum/Timmy/Huddy/Tron

15-8 3.11
16-7 2.83
12-10 3.88
12-7 3.36
9-8 4.06

As a whole, the Giants SP actually project out to have a better overall year (64-40 vs. 61-42) than the Grooms. I think their rotation is better than ours (at least until Escobar takes over the 5 slot) but not "tons" better.

Then again, I may be homerish on this one.

Also, I didn't look at projections for the bullpen, but I don't think LA has a huge advantage there either.

We'll see.

 

[msgkings322]

I have Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Haren/Beckett. Projected to be:

17-7 2.54
14-8 3.23
13-9 3.37
11-10 3.79
6-8 4.02

That's a nice rotation, but not phenomenal. Giants projections for Cain/Bum/Timmy/Huddy/Tron

15-8 3.11
16-7 2.83
12-10 3.88
12-7 3.36
9-8 4.06

As a whole, the Giants SP actually project out to have a better overall year (64-40 vs. 61-42) than the Grooms. I think their rotation is better than ours (at least until Escobar takes over the 5 slot) but not "tons" better.

Then again, I may be homerish on this one.

Also, I didn't look at projections for the bullpen, but I don't think LA has a huge advantage there either.

We'll see.

Fair enough.

For whatever it's worth, my dad thinks Bumgarner's going to win the Cy Young this year. He might be right, he's probably in the mix with Kershaw, Fernandez, and a couple of Cardinals.

Then again my dad thinks the White Sox are gonna win 85 games this year.