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Why the 2016 Oklahoma team may be school's best ever
By KC Joyner
So far we have analyzed the chances that Alabama and Clemson may deliver an all-time great season in 2016.
This week, let's ask the same question about the Oklahoma Sooners.
Is this the best OU team ever?
Methodology
Since this series concentrates on a program's teams in the modern era of college football -- defined as since 1964, the year the NCAA went back to a two-platoon structure -- the four bona fide contenders for the greatest Oklahoma team are the 1974, 1975, 1985 and 2000 teams that won a national championship.
Putting the contenders into context
The 1974 Sooners team went 11-0 and finished No. 1 in the AP poll. This team had one of the toughest defenses in NCAA history, but unfortunately was not able to play in a postseason game due to being on probation for recruiting violations. Oklahoma also played only two games against teams rated in the AP Top 25 at the time of the contest, and only one of those was against a team in the top 10 (Nebraska, ranked No. 6).
The 1975 team had a much tougher road, facing seven top-25 teams, including three that were ranked in the top 10 (No. 5 Texas, No. 2 Nebraska and No. 5 Michigan). This team did suffer an upset loss to Kansas but ended the season 11-1, with an Orange Bowl win over the Wolverines propelling the Sooners to the national championship.
Oklahoma's 1985 squad went 11-1 against a schedule that had matchups against four top-25 teams, two of which were ranked in the top two at the time (No. 2 Nebraska and No. 1 Penn State). A home loss to a Miami team that ended the year 10-2 was the only blemish on this national champion's record.
As great as the above teams were, the 2000 Oklahoma Sooners team might have the strongest claim for being the best Sooners team in the modern era. That club went 13-0 against a schedule that included six top-25 teams, five of which were in the top 11 and three of which were in the top three (No. 2 Kansas State, No. 1 Nebraska and No. 3 Florida State).
A daunting early slate in 2016
The 2016 Sooners may have the most difficult early-season schedule of any team in college football. They open the season with a matchup against a Houston team led by Heisman Trophy contender Greg Ward Jr., who is a primary reason the Cougars are a true contender to win the College Football Playoff.
Then the Sooners face Louisiana-Monroe before hosting No. 5 Ohio State and follow that up two weeks later with a road battle against No. 14 TCU.
As tough as this early-season slate is, the problem for the Sooners is that over the course of the rest of the season Oklahoma is slated to face only one team that ranks in the top 25 -- a home matchup against Baylor on Nov. 12. Add that to the fact that Ohio State is probably severely overrated, and it shows why the Sooners currently have the No. 26 rank in schedule strength in ESPN's Football Power Index.
The good news for Oklahoma is its last two foes (West Virginia and Oklahoma State) currently rank in the top 26 of the FPI. Since the FPI is a metric designed to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season, it means those two clubs are likely to be considered a lot tougher opponents at the time of the matchup than their current AP rank indicates.
Since the Big 12 won't be bringing back its conference championship game until the 2017 season, this year's Sooners squad will be at a disadvantage from that perspective when compared to the 2000 team.
But if the Sooners do win the College Football Playoff this season, the two victories required to claim that title will more than make up for the absence of the conference title game.
Sooners make a strong case for being my most complete team
It's hard to find a weakness in the 2016 Sooners.
On offense, they have quarterback Baker Mayfield, a Heisman Trophy contender who may be close to unstoppable. Oklahoma also could have the best set of running backs in the Big 12 in Samaje Perine andJoe Mixon. The Sooners' offensive line should be vastly improved due to both personnel additions and Lincoln Riley's track record of his offensive lines vastly improving in his second year in a program. Oklahoma has playmaking pass-catchers, led by speedy Dede Westbrook, fifth-year transfer Geno Lewis and Mark Andrews, who set an Oklahoma record for most touchdown receptions by a freshman and is on track to be one of the top breakout players of 2016.
The Sooners' defense is just as strong. They have a ridiculous amount of elite depth in the secondary, a group bringing back an All-Big 12 cornerback (Jordan Thomas) who can earn All-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors, as well as two All-Big 12 safeties (Ahmad Thomas and Steven Parker). Their defensive front seven lost some players but brings back impact players such as Charles Walker -- arguably the best defensive tackle in the Big 12 -- along with as many as nine other potential impact candidates in this group.
Add all of this to a special-teams platoon that has the potential for significant improvement and a very strong case can be made that the 2016 Sooners are the most complete team in college football.
Bottom line
FPI says that Oklahoma has a 64.4 percent chance of winning the Big 12 and a 17.3 percent chance of going undefeated in the regular season. As long as this team stays healthy, it has the talent to go toe-to-toe with any team in the nation, including the powerhouses of the SEC. If that talent translates to winning the College Football Playoff with a 14-0 record, there will be little doubt the 2016 Sooners are Oklahoma's greatest team in the modern era.
By KC Joyner
So far we have analyzed the chances that Alabama and Clemson may deliver an all-time great season in 2016.
This week, let's ask the same question about the Oklahoma Sooners.
Is this the best OU team ever?
Methodology
Since this series concentrates on a program's teams in the modern era of college football -- defined as since 1964, the year the NCAA went back to a two-platoon structure -- the four bona fide contenders for the greatest Oklahoma team are the 1974, 1975, 1985 and 2000 teams that won a national championship.
Putting the contenders into context
The 1974 Sooners team went 11-0 and finished No. 1 in the AP poll. This team had one of the toughest defenses in NCAA history, but unfortunately was not able to play in a postseason game due to being on probation for recruiting violations. Oklahoma also played only two games against teams rated in the AP Top 25 at the time of the contest, and only one of those was against a team in the top 10 (Nebraska, ranked No. 6).
The 1975 team had a much tougher road, facing seven top-25 teams, including three that were ranked in the top 10 (No. 5 Texas, No. 2 Nebraska and No. 5 Michigan). This team did suffer an upset loss to Kansas but ended the season 11-1, with an Orange Bowl win over the Wolverines propelling the Sooners to the national championship.
Oklahoma's 1985 squad went 11-1 against a schedule that had matchups against four top-25 teams, two of which were ranked in the top two at the time (No. 2 Nebraska and No. 1 Penn State). A home loss to a Miami team that ended the year 10-2 was the only blemish on this national champion's record.
As great as the above teams were, the 2000 Oklahoma Sooners team might have the strongest claim for being the best Sooners team in the modern era. That club went 13-0 against a schedule that included six top-25 teams, five of which were in the top 11 and three of which were in the top three (No. 2 Kansas State, No. 1 Nebraska and No. 3 Florida State).
A daunting early slate in 2016
The 2016 Sooners may have the most difficult early-season schedule of any team in college football. They open the season with a matchup against a Houston team led by Heisman Trophy contender Greg Ward Jr., who is a primary reason the Cougars are a true contender to win the College Football Playoff.
Then the Sooners face Louisiana-Monroe before hosting No. 5 Ohio State and follow that up two weeks later with a road battle against No. 14 TCU.
As tough as this early-season slate is, the problem for the Sooners is that over the course of the rest of the season Oklahoma is slated to face only one team that ranks in the top 25 -- a home matchup against Baylor on Nov. 12. Add that to the fact that Ohio State is probably severely overrated, and it shows why the Sooners currently have the No. 26 rank in schedule strength in ESPN's Football Power Index.
The good news for Oklahoma is its last two foes (West Virginia and Oklahoma State) currently rank in the top 26 of the FPI. Since the FPI is a metric designed to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season, it means those two clubs are likely to be considered a lot tougher opponents at the time of the matchup than their current AP rank indicates.
Since the Big 12 won't be bringing back its conference championship game until the 2017 season, this year's Sooners squad will be at a disadvantage from that perspective when compared to the 2000 team.
But if the Sooners do win the College Football Playoff this season, the two victories required to claim that title will more than make up for the absence of the conference title game.
Sooners make a strong case for being my most complete team
It's hard to find a weakness in the 2016 Sooners.
On offense, they have quarterback Baker Mayfield, a Heisman Trophy contender who may be close to unstoppable. Oklahoma also could have the best set of running backs in the Big 12 in Samaje Perine andJoe Mixon. The Sooners' offensive line should be vastly improved due to both personnel additions and Lincoln Riley's track record of his offensive lines vastly improving in his second year in a program. Oklahoma has playmaking pass-catchers, led by speedy Dede Westbrook, fifth-year transfer Geno Lewis and Mark Andrews, who set an Oklahoma record for most touchdown receptions by a freshman and is on track to be one of the top breakout players of 2016.
The Sooners' defense is just as strong. They have a ridiculous amount of elite depth in the secondary, a group bringing back an All-Big 12 cornerback (Jordan Thomas) who can earn All-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors, as well as two All-Big 12 safeties (Ahmad Thomas and Steven Parker). Their defensive front seven lost some players but brings back impact players such as Charles Walker -- arguably the best defensive tackle in the Big 12 -- along with as many as nine other potential impact candidates in this group.
Add all of this to a special-teams platoon that has the potential for significant improvement and a very strong case can be made that the 2016 Sooners are the most complete team in college football.
Bottom line
FPI says that Oklahoma has a 64.4 percent chance of winning the Big 12 and a 17.3 percent chance of going undefeated in the regular season. As long as this team stays healthy, it has the talent to go toe-to-toe with any team in the nation, including the powerhouses of the SEC. If that talent translates to winning the College Football Playoff with a 14-0 record, there will be little doubt the 2016 Sooners are Oklahoma's greatest team in the modern era.
