Is the season realistically over? History says yes.

[MCDevils]

This was one of the most depressing posts I've ever researched.

I looked back at the last two season and examined the first 10 games for the top 10 teams at the end of the year.

Here's the data:

09-10
East
Wash - 14
Devs - 12
Buff - 15
Pitt - 18
Ott - 14
Bos - 11
Phil - 11
Mon - 10
--------------
NYR - 14
Atl - 11

West
SJ - 11
Chi - 13
Vanc - 10
Pho - 12
Det - 10
LA - 12
Nash - 7
Col - 16
-------------
Stl - 11
Cal - 15

In an effort to reduce clutter:

08-09
Only 1 team finished with less than 10 points in the first 10 games. Florida had only 9 points and finished 9th. Four teams in the west finished with 10 points.

My analysis: The Devils would have to do something that no playoff team has done in 2 years. Make the playoffs after starting so poorly. Nashville is the only playoff team from the last two seasons that started with less than 10 points in the first 10 games. They earned 7.

Some hope: The Devils obviously finished very high last season, but there was one point where they were this bad, and they obviously still made the playoffs.

At one point they went 3-7-1 in an 11 game stretch. Unfortunately for this years team, last years team opened the year going 30-10-1.

The Devils didn't get their 10th regulation loss until Dec 31 last season. It's not even November and we already have 7.

Moving Forward:
I don't want to call the season 10 games in and this post would probably blow up in my face if I did.

However, there are some very realistic possibilities that need to be considered, because Lou is obviously looking at them.

First, the Devils need to turn this around ASAP. Immediately. Right now, or the season is practically over.

They could obviously turn it around starting immediately and rattle off a nice record of 7-2-1 which would make them a nice round 9-9-2.

The biggest problem is the following: The Devils are almost totally screwed if they don't start winning immediately. Last years opening was the best in team history if I remember correctly, and this years team isn't/won't/can't play defense as well as last years.

Furthermore, the Devils biggest bargaining chip is usually their 1st round pick. I can't over emphasize how they CAN NOT use it to make the team better if they don't start winning right away.

It's one thing to trade a 23-30 pick and it's entirely another thing to trade a pick in the top 5. Want to hear something crazy? Right now the Devils would be guaranteed one of the top two picks in the draft. They have the lowest points earned per game in the league ATM, and you can only fall 1 spot in the draft due to the lottery. You can't do something like trade that with Rolston to get rid of his cap hit, because it would be a disaster.

Finally, I can't believe I just used the words Devils and top 2 picks in the same sentence.

Am I the only one who would trade anything for the old line matching 1 goal game devils?

If things don't turn around quickly, it won't matter if you fire JMac because they'll be too far behind to do anything about it.

 

[MCDevils]

I'll do a follow up post tomorrow to see how many playoff teams last year had this bad of a 10 game stretch during the regular season. I have a hunch that a bunch of them did.

OTHER GOOD NEWS:

Jon Merrill, D – University of Michigan Wolverines (CCHA)
With five points in six games, Merrill is off to a terrific start on the Michigan blueline. Combining great size (6-foot-3, 209 pounds) with strength and skating ability, the former NTDP puckmover is providing a silver lining for Devils fans who haven’t had a lot to smile about lately. Drafted 38th overall by New Jersey in 2010.

 

[devils30mb]

The magic number to get into the playoffs is usually around 90 points. This means we need to make up 85 points in 72 games, which is still doable. It means we have to win approx 50 - 60% of the remaining games with some OT losses on the lower end of that scale.
Yes we have went into slumps the years past but that wasn't at the beginning of the year. The problem with trying to make up ground when coming down to the wire is several teams are fighting for a playoff spot and click it up a notch, so it makes very difficult, but not impossible to leapfrog teams to get in the playoffs. That is why it important that teams get off to a good/reasonable start at the beginning of the year.
I would say by game 20 we should have a better indicator of this. The next 4 - 5 games is vital that they get points, otherwise realistically we probably won't be in the post season.

I would be all for the old line matching and hard working Devils right about now. At least they were consistant in a good way. Currently we're consistant in loosing most of the time.
I know cup will jump on on me about this but atm, this team, who brought a player in to get more offense, has not lived up to that expectation.

 

[nj_cup]

they have til game 20 IMO to get out of this funk...now obviously if they go 1-9 in their next 10 games its over...heck even if they tread .500 for the next 10 its a longshot.

 

[DevFan60]

Did anybody heard any words from mgmt about this slumpy start? Doesn't look like they care about it.

 

[MCDevils]

What do you expect management to say? We're firing MacLean if he doesn't win 4-5?

 

[TheRobotDevil]

Don't think its over but I also think its time for a change whether it be coach or captain something.

 

[DevFan60]

And now we can not say that it is too early to make a conclusion. It is time now.

 

[SJ20]

Good research MCDevils. Those numbers are scary. We had better start putting together a winning streak.

 

[MCDevils]

Of course they could go 30-10 like last year and end up 32-17 and be fighting for the top of the division. They need to be .500 by xmas

 

[Indian Chief]

Good thread. I was thinking about this very topic a few days ago. I'd be less concerned with our points to begin the season than with what we need to make the playoffs. I think this Devils team has an odd mix of new/young guys, elite talent and new coaching. There are not a lot of teams in the last 2 years that have had that mix.

 

[DevFan60]

Is it good or bad to have such mix? In our case it looks horrid.

 

[Indian Chief]

I think it is simply unpredictable. Most teams that infuse a lot of young talent are rebuilding. And very often they do not have established players like Parise and Kovalchuk already on the team.

 

[DevFan60]

But still with core of players from previous season and with assumably good addition we should look better than we are now. An explanatioin is that coaching staff did not prepare team for this season and it is much harder to do it when season started. It involves a lot of psycological and physical changes.

 

[Indian Chief]

I agree with you that something is wrong and we should clearly be much better than we are.

 

[MCDevils]

Jeez, we're getting close. I wont give up the season for rebuilding. Time to fire MacLean, because there's nothing else that can be done.

 

[skrillex26]

Jeez, we're getting close. I wont give up the season for rebuilding. Time to fire MacLean, because there's nothing else that can be done.

Exactly right. Something has to be done and i think that's got to be it. Stripping Langs of the C would also make it a little more like a fresh start.

New Coach, New Captain.

 

[DevFan60]

Lou - do it please. Let us enjoy some Devils' hockey.