Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[DJ]

When looking at this contract closer, really it's only a 2 year $50 million guarantee. $30 million is paid in year 1, so if Baker does fade, it appears that the Bucs can easily get out of it without much of a financial hit.

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Sure but based on last season he is likely to continue to play as he did. Evans, Godwin, and good skill players.

No reason to think he will regress to Carolina level play.

 

[DJ]

Sure but based on last season he is likely to continue to play as he did. Evans, Godwin, and good skill players.

No reason to think he will regress to Carolina level play.

Plus Tampa has a solid OL.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Honestly, I expect baker to regress some this year. Not sure of his stats, but It's always been my view of Baker that he's just good enough to get his next, improved, contract. After signing the deal, when he's counted on, he regresses.

 

[socaljim242]

Honestly, I expect baker to regress some this year. Not sure of his stats, but It's always been my view of Baker that he's just good enough to get his next, improved, contract. After signing the deal, when he's counted on, he regresses.

He can't get better , he can only stay the same or get worse .

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Honestly, I expect baker to regress some this year. Not sure of his stats, but It's always been my view of Baker that he's just good enough to get his next, improved, contract. After signing the deal, when he's counted on, he regresses.

his poor last year in Cleveland was entirely injury related.

 

[belcherboy]

Sure but based on last season he is likely to continue to play as he did. Evans, Godwin, and good skill players.

No reason to think he will regress to Carolina level play.

Well, they do play a robust schedule and Atlanta should be significantly improved.

Tampa 2024's big games next year:

@ Dallas
@ KC
@ LAC
Philadelphia
@ Detroit
Baltimore

They do have these weaker games:
Washington
Carolina (2)
@ NYG
Denver
Las Vegas

If they fail to make the playoffs next year, that would most definitely put Baker on the hot seat as his final year of this contract will probably be a big part of it. It would make sense to walk away then, having only spent $50-$70 million on him over two seasons (I'm not sure exactly what year two looks like, only know that he is only guaranteed $50 mil).

 

[belcherboy]

Honestly, I expect baker to regress some this year. Not sure of his stats, but It's always been my view of Baker that he's just good enough to get his next, improved, contract. After signing the deal, when he's counted on, he regresses.

I think Baker could get better stats next year (he should be more comfortable having one full season under his belt with team), but I'm not sure the team will win more games. I think Cousins will move Atlanta to the top of the division. I could see the Bucs winning 8-9 games and missing the playoffs. With the contract only having $50 million in guaranteed money, the Bucs wrote that so they can easily move off Baker if they don't see a long term benefit to having him. If they think they can be a consistent playoff team with him, then I could see Baker making it all three years though.

In my opinion, the worst place to be in the NFL is a team that wins 7-9 games, but doesn't make the playoffs. Especially if you don't have a franchise QB that you are building around.

 

[LeroyOU12]

I think Baker could get better stats next year (he should be more comfortable having one full season under his belt with team), but I'm not sure the team will win more games. I think Cousins will move Atlanta to the top of the division. I could see the Bucs winning 8-9 games and missing the playoffs. With the contract only having $50 million in guaranteed money, the Bucs wrote that so they can easily move off Baker if they don't see a long term benefit to having him. If they think they can be a consistent playoff team with him, then I could see Baker making it all three years though.

In my opinion, the worst place to be in the NFL is a team that wins 7-9 games, but doesn't make the playoffs. Especially if you don't have a franchise QB that you are building around.

Most NFL teams don't have a franchise QB. they, however have "serviceable QBs", as good as (franchise QB) Lamar Jackson is, he's only 1-3 in playoffs while BM is 2-2, won 2 playoffs games with 2 different team.

BM was 2 ints away from playing in conference championship games. He threw an int in Detroit in the last minutes of the game when the Bucs was behind by 7. He also threw a redzone int in divisional game late in the 4th at KC when the Browns was down by less than a TD, his receiver couldn't handle the fast ball, bounced off his hand and KC got it.

 

[fastforward]

Mayfield has played 6 seasons. Essentially 3 seasons have been average and 3 have been poor. He could improve but expectations should be tempered. $10M of next season's $30M salary is fully guaranteed. Some veteran QBs will retire, the 2025 QB Draft looks weak, and the salary cap will probably rise 7-10%. Thus he will be 'value' for the remaining $20M on his contract. meh.

 

[belcherboy]

Most NFL teams don't have a franchise QB. they, however have "serviceable QBs", as good as (franchise QB) Lamar Jackson is, he's only 1-3 in playoffs while BM is 2-2, won 2 playoffs games with 2 different team.

BM was 2 ints away from playing in conference championship games. He threw an int in Detroit in the last minutes of the game when the Bucs was behind by 7. He also threw a redzone int in divisional game late in the 4th at KC when the Browns was down by less than a TD, his receiver couldn't handle the fast ball, bounced off his hand and KC got it.

Most teams don’t sit on older serviceable QB’s if they aren’t winning playoff games. If Baker fails to make the playoffs the next few seasons, this contract tells me the Bucs created a way out of it that doesn’t cost them anything.

The Bucs barely made the playoffs in the weakest division in the NFL. The Falcons significantly improved at the biggest position. They barely missed winning their division last season.

 

[LeroyOU12]

Most teams don’t sit on older serviceable QB’s if they aren’t winning playoff games. If Baker fails to make the playoffs the next few seasons, this contract tells me the Bucs created a way out of it that doesn’t cost them anything.

The Bucs barely made the playoffs in the weakest division in the NFL. The Falcons significantly improved at the biggest position. They barely missed winning their division last season.

BM is not old, he's only 28 and in his prime. I agreed with you that they will cut him if he fails to lead the Bucs to the playoffs or plays poorly. Either way BM is only guaranteed 2 years and $50M which is very reasonable price (even if the Bucs had to eat it if they cut him) these days for a starting QB in the NFL.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I think Baker could get better stats next year (he should be more comfortable having one full season under his belt with team), but I'm not sure the team will win more games. I think Cousins will move Atlanta to the top of the division. I could see the Bucs winning 8-9 games and missing the playoffs. With the contract only having $50 million in guaranteed money, the Bucs wrote that so they can easily move off Baker if they don't see a long term benefit to having him. If they think they can be a consistent playoff team with him, then I could see Baker making it all three years though.

In my opinion, the worst place to be in the NFL is a team that wins 7-9 games, but doesn't make the playoffs. Especially if you don't have a franchise QB that you are building around.

I don't view the NFL that way. You can rebuild on the fly. The worst place to be is with money buried into your qb on a long term deal and you're mediocre.

If you're mediocre with a cheap qb that's entirely different

 

[Stakesarehigh]

BM is not old, he's only 28 and in his prime. I agreed with you that they will cut him if he fails to lead the Bucs to the playoffs or plays poorly. Either way BM is only guaranteed 2 years and $50M which is very reasonable price (even if the Bucs had to eat it if they cut him) these days for a starting QB in the NFL.

He will be as he was last year.

His second year was shit because it was the worst coached team ever. 3 years ago was his shoulder and 2 years ago was the Watson fallout.

He will be what he's been...12th to 18th best in the league.

 

[LeroyOU12]

I don't view the NFL that way. You can rebuild on the fly. The worst place to be is with money buried into your qb on a long term deal and you're mediocre.

If you're mediocre with a cheap qb that's entirely different

You just described the Broncos with Wilson to the T.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

You just described the Broncos with Wilson to the T.

exactly

 

[VikingFan2k2]

Baker shut me up big time this year. The guy landed on his feet. He's in a good situation with a team and fans that like him.

He's also not running his mouth nearly as much as he used to. A testament to his growth both as a player and a leader.

 

[belcherboy]

BM is not old, he's only 28 and in his prime. I agreed with you that they will cut him if he fails to lead the Bucs to the playoffs or plays poorly. Either way BM is only guaranteed 2 years and $50M which is very reasonable price (even if the Bucs had to eat it if they cut him) these days for a starting QB in the NFL.

I never said he was old. I said he was older. He’s had enough snaps now that everyone knows how good he is, and likely he has peaked. He’s a middle of the league QB at best.

That’s what I was saying about his contract. It’s a team friendly deal, for an inconsistent QB in his prime. If the Bucs miss the playoffs, I could see them moving on from him in a season or two. That’s why they signed that deal.

 

[DJ]

Most NFL teams don't have a franchise QB. they, however have "serviceable QBs", as good as (franchise QB) Lamar Jackson is, he's only 1-3 in playoffs while BM is 2-2, won 2 playoffs games with 2 different team.

BM was 2 ints away from playing in conference championship games. He threw an int in Detroit in the last minutes of the game when the Bucs was behind by 7. He also threw a redzone int in divisional game late in the 4th at KC when the Browns was down by less than a TD, his receiver couldn't handle the fast ball, bounced off his hand and KC got it.

Most people would still take Jackson over Mayfield.

Dilfer "won" a SB but virtually nobody thinks he is a HOF'er.

 

[belcherboy]

Baker shut me up big time this year. The guy landed on his feet. He's in a good situation with a team and fans that like him.

He's also not running his mouth nearly as much as he used to. A testament to his growth both as a player and a leader.

I like Baker and definitely see he has matured. He has earned his contract and a starting position.

I do think this will be the end of the road for him though. With the Falcons making big improvements at the key position, I think they easily win the division, which would leave the Bucs out. I think the Bucs will be in rebuild mode by the end of the 2025 season or sooner.

(The good news is that my prediction are crap if you’re a Bucs fan though)

 

[belcherboy]

Most people would still take Jackson over Mayfield.

Dilfer "won" a SB but virtually nobody thinks he is a HOF'er.

The only hesitation I would have with Lamar is his contract. With his lack of playoff success and injury history, I’d be a little worried about the long term ramifications of his contract.

On the other side, he is a FREAKY good athlete.