I'm nervous about drafting Miller

[Brees#1]

He has all the tools to carry the workload in Houston but it should be known every RB since Tate has had problems filling in for Foster. Houston's oline I think has not been among the best, and Foster could do things Miller could not. I think Foster made the texans' running game not the other way around.

 

[averagejoe]

It may not be quality but quantity.
Over the past 2 seasons, Houston has run the ball an average of 551 times.
Most of those are earmarked for Miller.

For reference, last year only 4 teams ran the ball more than Houston.
But 3 of those teams had running QB's that boosted the rush attempts by at least 103, 104 and 132 attempts.

Here's another obscure stat: While Osweiler was QB in Denver, the RB had better games than when Manning was the QB.

 

[Brees#1]

When I see a floor of 5 wins it's hard to take a chance on him. And that schedule is hard. Too many defenses that can hit back and has better talent, plus GB. Possibly 4 wins. Jacksonville might be due another sweep like 2013.

 

[TREFF]

Houston's history of top 4 rushing attempts is ancient history. Miller can't handle that load, O'Brien and Godsey, both architects of the Patriots system, don't want that kind work load, and the signing of Osweiler and the drafting of two WR's all adds up to a vertical system being slowly put into place.
Miller is still very likely to end up as a low end RB1, high end RB2, but anyone expecting Arian Foster usage numbers is nuts, imho

 

[DUB]

Good thing you have time before your draft to view some preseason action to see if you like what you see...

-DUB-

 

[eaglesnut]

Me too. When did a FA RB go star anywhere else?

Why shouldn't Miller and Forte be closely drafted? Just strictly age?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Me too. When did a FA RB go star anywhere else?

Why shouldn't Miller and Forte be closely drafted? Just strictly age?

Priest Holmes BAL to KC
Jamaal Lewis BAL to CLE
Thomas Jones at least 2x in his career CHI to KC, then KC to NYJ
Marshawn Lynch traded but was gonna get cut by BUF for off field issues
Darren Sproles SD to NO (I think he got traded to PHI for like a 6th round pick or something cheap)
Edgerrin James IND to ARZ

those are just the ones i remember, sure there are a few other good ones as well.
happens a lot more than one might think

 

[TKOSpikes]

He has all the tools to carry the workload in Houston but it should be known every RB since Tate has had problems filling in for Foster. Houston's oline I think has not been among the best, and Foster could do things Miller could not. I think Foster made the texans' running game not the other way around.

So don't draft him. At his ADP, it's not like the alternatives are gross.

 

[TKOSpikes]

When I see a floor of 5 wins it's hard to take a chance on him. And that schedule is hard. Too many defenses that can hit back and has better talent, plus GB. Possibly 4 wins. Jacksonville might be due another sweep like 2013.

Football wins have zero effect on fantasy. Zero.

 

[eaglesnut]

I wouldn't count Priest. He didn't get a full workload in BAL. That's different than being a weak starter in one place and then going onto to being a star in another.

Jamal Lewis did have a good year in Cleveland. 1500 and 11 TDs. Miller never had the big years like Lewis did though. I'll count it anyway.

Thomas Jones didn't get a full workload until Chicago. Then he went to the Jets and had only 2 TDs. Not sure why? He had 2 big years after that. I'll count it anyway.

Marshawn Lynch was traded and a beast. Not counting that.

Darren Sproles was never really a starter anywhere. His fit in NO was pretty special. I don't see enough parallels with the Miller situation. Not counting it.

Edge was better in AZ than I remembered. 1400+ and 6. He was a stud in Indy, unlike Lamar in Miami though. Not sure whether to count it. I lean towards not because we're not talking about a multi-finish top 5 RB in Miller, like Edge was.


Thanks for the list of guys to look up. Each of them was relevant in some way.

 

[eaglesnut]

Football wins have zero effect on fantasy. Zero.

Every situation is a little different, but teams do run more when they're winning and run way less when they are getting blown out.

 

[TREFF]

I wouldn't count Priest. He didn't get a full workload in BAL. That's different than being a weak starter in one place and then going onto to being a star in another.

Jamal Lewis did have a good year in Cleveland. 1500 and 11 TDs. Miller never had the big years like Lewis did though. I'll count it anyway.

Thomas Jones didn't get a full workload until Chicago. Then he went to the Jets and had only 2 TDs. Not sure why? He had 2 big years after that. I'll count it anyway.

Marshawn Lynch was traded and a beast. Not counting that.

Darren Sproles was never really a starter anywhere. His fit in NO was pretty special. I don't see enough parallels with the Miller situation. Not counting it.

Edge was better in AZ than I remembered. 1400+ and 6. He was a stud in Indy, unlike Lamar in Miami though. Not sure whether to count it. I lean towards not because we're not talking about a multi-finish top 5 RB in Miller, like Edge was.


Thanks for the list of guys to look up. Each of them was relevant in some way.

@SmokingMonkey , I count em all!

The questions wasnt worded to specify all those things, and we're talking fantasy stars, Sproles was definitely that.

 

[eaglesnut]

@SmokingMonkey , I count em all!

The questions wasnt worded to specify all those things, and we're talking fantasy stars, Sproles was definitely that. Btw, Thomas Jones had 28 TD's with the Jets in 3 years, not 2

Right that's why I counted Jones in the end. But his first year he only had 2! I'm looking at Miller for one year right now.

Yes, my question was not worded as specifically as it could have been. Still I care about how it relates to Lamar Miller's situation more so than just any ole FA RB switching teams. And to that end, why not take Matt Forte in a better offense before Lamar Miller? Just age?

 

[TKOSpikes]

Every situation is a little different, but teams do run more when they're winning and run way less when they are getting blown out.

Still has no effect as far as fantasy goes.

 

[Brees#1]

The Bell situation makes this null and void now. Love that I can get him late first now.

 

[Brees#1]

Also, these mocks people draft for the short term, they are taking DWill in 5th round. Crazy. So because of just one month not many will spend a first on Bell. But I will.

 

[Brees#1]

Alternatives to Miller are Bell, Lacy, and Charles. If receiver Green and Hopkins.

 

[TREFF]

Right that's why I counted Jones in the end. But his first year he only had 2! I'm looking at Miller for one year right now.

Yes, my question was not worded as specifically as it could have been. Still I care about how it relates to Lamar Miller's situation more so than just any ole FA RB switching teams. And to that end, why not take Matt Forte in a better offense before Lamar Miller? Just age?

I likely would take Forte first. .I just wouldn't discount Miller based on him being a FA is all. And Forte does have Powell, who I personally think is a waste of roster space, but the Jets continually give him the ball anyways, and Miller has virtually nothing but proven disappointments behind him .so there is that ..

 

[ehb5]

Also, these mocks people draft for the short term, they are taking DWill in 5th round. Crazy. So because of just one month not many will spend a first on Bell. But I will.

It's not about the month, it's about the long term red flags.

 

[Brees#1]

It seems that all the backs have red flags. Except Gurley. And as I have already said that just puts a bigger target on his back.