How to upgrade this team (but it ain't gonna happen)

[thecrow124]

Well there haven't been any new posts in a while, so I guess why not. Lets talk about ways to upgrade this team going into next season.

In all reality, I just don't think there is whole heck of a lot we can do in free agency. Unfortunately that is also the only way we will be able to upgrade the pitching staff. But I am getting ahead of myself, let us start with defense.
In another thread I pointed out that we only have 2 people playing their ideal defensive positions. Barmes and McKenry are exactly where they should be. Other than that every player is out of position, or at the very least there is a superior option on the team. I will break it down by position, please hear me out before you crucify me though, some of you may not like this.
1B - Garrett Jones is playing there simply because he was our best option, but he should not be, he is servicable at best at this position and below average at worst. Pedro Alvarez could move there tomorrow and be no worse than Jones, and this is what should happen. Alvarez has better hands and better reflexes, he just has horrible range and footwork at 3B.
2B - This should be Jordy Mercer, not necessarily because he is better than Walker, but he is better than the next guy in line by a long shot.
3B - This is where Walker should be playing, he would be a huge upgrade defensively at least in theory, because he has our best defensive option at third before Pedro was drafted.
LF - This should be McCutchen, but due to a total lack of talent in the system, it needs to be Jones. We are wasting Marte's speed and arm by playing him in LF.
CF - This should be Marte, and it shouldn't be open for discussion, and it shouldn't matter that McCutchen makes a butt-load of money, Marte is a far superior defender with a much stronger arm. However, as long as NH and CH are here I am sure Cutch will be bungling this position for us.
RF - Since Cutch isn't going to move, then Marte should play right. He is faster, takes better routes and has a stronger arm than any other outfielder we have. However, since the premise of my arguement is putting people where they should be defensively, then Cutch should be in LF, Marte in CF and Jone in RF would be our best defensive OF.

In closing our defensive alignment sould be(but won't be)
1B - Pedro
2B - Mercer
SS - Barmes
3B - Walker
LF - McCutchen
CF - Marte
RF - Jones

By going with this defensive alignment, we should be able to piece together 2-3 more wins over the course of 162 games.

On a side note, I fully expect Huntington to let Jones walk if he can't get him traded before arbitration, I can't see him paying $6 million to a guy that should be platooning, but since we don't have a viable RH OF option, I can see Jones walking or being traded and going with the winner of the Snider/Presley ST battle. Actually who am I kidding, Jones won't even be an option for an OF position he will be allowed to walk he will be allowed to walk because Huntington sees him as a 1Bman and we have a much cheaper Gaby Sanchez for that position.

I wonder if Huntington has a syndrome I'll call Billy Beane syndrome. He just can't seem to figure out when, on whom, nor how much money to spend on players that make his team better. Say what you will about Beane and the A's this year, that was nothing but sun finding a dogs ass, pure luck and nothing else.

 

[Darkstone42]

What about Holt at 2B? I agree with everything else.

 

[thecrow124]

The problem with Holt is that if he ins't hitting he has no value. He doesn't walk and he hits for no power at all. At least with Mercer there is the chance for some power. Other than that they would be interchangeable.

 

[26 elroy face]

Why the love for Mercer. Barmes doesn't walk or hit for power, and Mercer couldn't take his take his place.

Your comparison between Jones and Alvarez is one sided and not necessarily base on stats. Jones is the better athelete while Alvarez has better hands, but neither is blessed with a great baseball IQ. Both players needed to be platoon.

AB R H RBI K B.Avg S.Pct Aganist Lefties
Jones 475 68 130 86 103 .274 .516 .189 2 HR

Alvarez 525 64 128 85 180 .244 .467 .207 6 HR

 

[thecrow124]

There is no reason that Mercer should have taken Barmes' job, Barmes was the best defensive SS in the NL. One more nugget for consideration, after April/May, Barmes was passable offensively, not good, but good enough to justify keeping him at SS.

A's for Jones and Alvarez, I was going for the best defensive alignment and when all else was equal I would factor in offense. Even though both should be platoons, this would be our defensive alignment for a majority of games since there are more RHP than LHP in baseball.

This whole assessment was also an attempt to fix holes we have with the payroll we can afford.

 

[26 elroy face]

Barmes hit .250 the last 4 months of the season (.197 the first 3 months). He's a career .250 hitter that doesn't walk and is prone to striking out. He played the second half of the season by default. Mercer wasn't ready, Harrison wasn't good enough, and the Pirates tried but failed to make a trade at the deadline.

Barmes would be an asset to a team that can hit, and score runs, but I don't want to see a line up where the bottom three hitters are McKenry, Barmes, and the pitcher.

 

[Illinest]

I'm not trying to be mean or anything but it looks like your plan to upgrade the team is to run out the same lineup.

how does that saying go? Re-arrange the deckchairs on the titanic?

 

[thecrow124]

I'm not trying to be mean or anything but it looks like your plan to upgrade the team is to run out the same lineup.

how does that saying go? Re-arrange the deckchairs on the titanic?

Because at least in theory by playing the defense in positions that they are more suited for you would give up less runs, and therefore need to score less. In reality, I am not really sure exactly how much it helps.
The whole problem with the team in general is there really is no way to upgrade the roster. You can try to make trades, but who do you target in a trade? I would love to get Justin Upton and finalize the outfield, but who do we give up? Arizona wants a long term, major league ready SS, and that is something we don't have. We could try to sign BJ Upton and play him in RF, but do you want BJ Upton at $12-15 million per season? We don't have the financial resources, well actually we probably do, we won't use the financial resources we have to sign Zack Greinke.
So I ask you, if you can't or won't pay top dollar for top dollar talent, how would you go about upgrading this team? The reason I came up with this solution is because if we were to play our defense in positions they are more suited for, then we could actually make an honest effort to upgrade the pitching. It is cheaper to compete for starting pitchers in free agency than it is position players.
There are players we could target in trades, but IMO the cost of aquiring those players would be to high. The one player I wouldn't mind trading for, who would help offensively, and we might not have to give up top flight talent for would be Alfonso Soriano, but the Cubs have actually come out and said they aren't so sure they want to trade him any more. I would not want to give up what it would take to get JJ Hardy, only because we would only have him, probably sulking around, for one season.

 

[thecrow124]

I'm not trying to be mean or anything but it looks like your plan to upgrade the team is to run out the same lineup.

how does that saying go? Re-arrange the deckchairs on the titanic?

But to accurately answer your response, yes same line-up, but a huge upgrade defensively.

 

[thecrow124]

Barmes hit .250 the last 4 months of the season (.197 the first 3 months). He's a career .250 hitter that doesn't walk and is prone to striking out. He played the second half of the season by default. Mercer wasn't ready, Harrison wasn't good enough, and the Pirates tried but failed to make a trade at the deadline.

Barmes would be an asset to a team that can hit, and score runs, but I don't want to see a line up where the bottom three hitters are McKenry, Barmes, and the pitcher.

Barmes has $5.5 million left on his contract, which means 2 things, he is not a tradable asset, and with our payroll, he will play every day until he is traded, probably around the deadline. As for how he fits into this discussion, I was attempting to put the best defensive team on the field, to limit runs allowed, in an attempt to offset our putrid offense.

As for the bottom 3 in your liine-up, there are ways around that as well, but that is not part of this discussion.

 

[Illinest]

Oh one more thing - Fangraphs has Neil Walker as a net positive defensively and Baseball Reference has him at -0.1, but his range factor the last two years is 2nd and 4th in the NL.

He actually rates pretty well at 2B. I do not agree with moving him.

 

[thedddd]

Walker should stay at 2B, his value would go down at 3B.

As for Alvarez I have a feeling he is staying at 3B with Jones, Sanchez and Snyder rotating with the hopes of another Right handed bat somewhere.

So I fully expect to see much of the same as we did this year. I just hope there is an improvement somewhere in the Pitching staff.

 

[thecrow124]

Oh one more thing - Fangraphs has Neil Walker as a net positive defensively and Baseball Reference has him at -0.1, but his range factor the last two years is 2nd and 4th in the NL.

He actually rates pretty well at 2B. I do not agree with moving him.

I never said Walker was not a good second baseman, quite to the contrary, he is a good second baseman. However, he is also the best defensive third baseman we have in the system. His bat also plays there, sure I would like a few more HR's, but just the amount of runs he would save over Pedro would be all I would need to see.

The only reason I would move him is to get Pedro off of third base where he isn't even passable defensively. First base is a position where you can hide a sub-par defender as most anything coming at him is at his chest.

 

[thecrow124]

Walker should stay at 2B, his value would go down at 3B.
As for Alvarez I have a feeling he is staying at 3B with Jones, Sanchez and Snyder rotating with the hopes of another Right handed bat somewhere.

So I fully expect to see much of the same as we did this year. I just hope there is an improvement somewhere in the Pitching staff.

The highlighted is a false statement. A players value is not what should be in question with a team game, him being at third base instead of Pedro would improve the team, that is what we should be looking at.

I also fully expect to see the same team on the field for the most part next year, that is why I said in the title that this would not happen. However, there will be no improvement in the pitching. Burnett will be what we saw in the second half, McDonald, IMO, is completely lost. Karstens likely won't be tendered. Morton won't be tendered. Wandy might have another good year in him, possibly even 2. I see three holes in the rotation, 2 if McDonald proves me wrong, and I see no one to fill them.

The easiest way to improve the pitching, is to improve the defense. The defensive alignment I recommended would do just that.

 

[magnumo]

While on the subject of Pirates' defense, readers might find the latest effort of the "Stats Geek" at the P-G worth a read. It's behind the P-G + paywall, but I dump my browser cookies often enough that I can usually access anything which looks interesting without paying.

The article is mostly historical, but at the bottom, O'Neill gets around to current Pirates who played more than 100 games in 2012. I knew that Barajas did not meet expectations defensively, but didn't realize he was as bad as the article indicates. His -12 for 2012 is the worst defensive single season EVER by a Pirate catcher..... and was bad enough to place him in a tie for third worst LIFETIME. I was also surprised to learn that Jose Tabata was the only guy other than Barmes who came out with a positive number on defense in 2012.

Stats Geek: Rating the Pirates' Gloves

 

[Darkstone42]

Good read, mags. Thanks.

 

[thedddd]

The highlighted is a false statement. A players value is not what should be in question with a team game, him being at third base instead of Pedro would improve the team, that is what we should be looking at.

I also fully expect to see the same team on the field for the most part next year, that is why I said in the title that this would not happen. However, there will be no improvement in the pitching. Burnett will be what we saw in the second half, McDonald, IMO, is completely lost. Karstens likely won't be tendered. Morton won't be tendered. Wandy might have another good year in him, possibly even 2. I see three holes in the rotation, 2 if McDonald proves me wrong, and I see no one to fill them.

The easiest way to improve the pitching, is to improve the defense. The defensive alignment I recommended would do just that.

I understand what you are saying and it is very valid but my statement is not false.
If you take Walker away from 2B who replaces him? There is not a good enough replacement on the roster so that would make his value go down at 3B since. To add Walker didn't play enough 2B in the minors or 3B in the majors to do a good comparison but if you compare the numbers he is basically the same at both positions defensively. So with his bat his value is better served at 2B.

Also who is to say Alvarez will be any good at 1B since he never played there in the majors or minors?

To say Mercer could replace Walker yeah in theory it would work but remember Mercer was more of a SS in the minors with only 94 games at 2B. Also what if he can't get on base in the majors? Yeah defense is very important, yeah I understand all the numbers, but you don't win scoring zero runs.

 

[thecrow124]

I understand what you are saying and it is very valid but my statement is not false.
If you take Walker away from 2B who replaces him? There is not a good enough replacement on the roster so that would make his value go down at 3B since. To add Walker didn't play enough 2B in the minors or 3B in the majors to do a good comparison but if you compare the numbers he is basically the same at both positions defensively. So with his bat his value is better served at 2B.

Also who is to say Alvarez will be any good at 1B since he never played there in the majors or minors?

To say Mercer could replace Walker yeah in theory it would work but remember Mercer was more of a SS in the minors with only 94 games at 2B. Also what if he can't get on base in the majors? Yeah defense is very important, yeah I understand all the numbers, but you don't win scoring zero runs.

You answer your own question, if Walker is the same at second as he is at third how does his value decrease by moving? He is still in the lineup batting 6th, which is also the wrong spot for him, but that is for another discussion. I don't care where he plays, we will get the same offensive production from him. It is just backwards thinking IMO to believe that he would have a different value just because he plays a different position. Dollarwise in arbitration maybe his value would go down due to the lack of power numbers from a historically power position, but how does that hurt us? Him playing third instead of Pedro helps the team, and that is the only thing I am concerned with.

Maybe Pedro can't play first, but I fully believe he would thrive at the position. Heck Albert Pujols played a passable first base for a few years. Pedro is more mobile and has faster reflexes than Pujols. Worst case scenario is he is no better than Jones, but THAT I find hard to believe.

As for Mercer playing second, he plays a pretty good SS, why on earth would he not play a good second? All the questions you bring up about him are certainly very valid, but there were even more questions about Wlaker playing second base when he came up, and you are now arguing that he should not be moved. To be fair, Mrecer has had better minor league numbers progressing through the system than Walker did, so I just deduce that he will at the very least be able to be passable offensively.

I absolutely understand your concernes with us not scoring enough runs to win, but in all honesty, this is the team we are going to have going into next season, so no matter where they play, the amount of runs we score will be the same. If we can put a defense on the field that doesn't give away roughly 30 runs over the course of a season, and could quite possibly save 30 runs over the course of the season, why on earth would you not do it?

 

[thecrow124]

Funny thing, when I initially posted this I thought I would get lambasted for suggesting we move McCutchen out of center. I did not see me getting punished for suggesting we move Pedro and replace him with Wlaker. Not saying anything, I just found it humorous. It is good to have a spirited debate while I am seething over the playoffs. Honestly there is not one team that was in the playoffs that I would have been happy seeing win the World Series.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pedro's going to have to move to first at some point in his career anyway, so it might as well be now.

Offensively, the two arrangements are a wash. You either play an unproven Mercer at second or one of various unproven outfielders in right. Unless Tabata really picks it up offensively, in which case he would be the best option defensively in right, and in which case you might want to keep Jones at first, Pedro at third, and Walker at second in order to optimize the offense.