hey mc

[nj_cup]

tb since your reading this too you can answer it also.....

question...kovy was out there for the final goal against last night. he was NOWAY even responsible for the turnover by talendar and for marty getting beat pretty easily. yet he gets a minus for that? im sure his corsi stats going to take a hit as well as that 3.58 avg you said when hes on the ice? hows that fair? see now i would take +/- or even those stats you used more serious if it was reflective of that single players playing. i know its a team sport but when the other guys only fault is being out on the ice well i think thats a little out there dont you

 

[MCDevils]

First, you're trying to disprove large sample size statistics by using a single instance. That's flawed in any line of thinking. Also, I can't find a good angle replay of the entire shift so review, but if I remember correctly it was an excellent shift by the Panthers, and they simply wore down all three Devils players. I obviously see that you're your looking at Tallinder, but the entire sequence isn't on him.

Also, I think it's obvious that the four of them were beaten as a unit. That's how 4 on 4 works though, it takes a tremendous individual effort to break up a sequence like that. It didn't come from anywhere.

 

[MCDevils]

Found a decent angle. So here's my opinion about this disaster of a play.

First, you can't see it here, but at least the defense were on the ice for 70+ seconds, I don't remember if they were able to change forwards.

Here's the link that I'll be working from:

Devils versus Panthers - Game Video - NHL Video Highlights - Jan 15 '11 - NHL VideoCenter

Please note that I can't find anything that has the whole shift, so although I know Tallinder was run around for most of the shift, I can only analyze the video evidence above.
=========

What we're looking at starts at 2:17

Right off the bat we see Kovy doing something that I hate. He's almost double teaming the puck carrier. I hate this for two reasons. #1, 4 on 4 hockey works like man coverage in basketball vs zone. You have to cover your man, and undefended point man are able to easily do what we know is about to happen.

Second, I HATE that he almost double teamed him. He does this weak little spin off move, so he didn't end up challenging the Florida player. If he spun off and covered the defenseman, I would have zero problem with that, but he doesn't.

So then right around 2:19 the Florida player has headed toward the goal line and then turned back towards the point. Problem is, Kovalchuk isn't in position to contribute to the play, and the defender because of attrition is starting to get separation from Tallinder.

If you freeze it at 2:19 you'll notice that we have essentially vacated the top half of the ice. IMO, Zajac's also too low in the zone.

Moving to 2:21 Fayne has released from his player and Tallinder has pick him up which is a mistake because were still leaving guys open. Kovalchuk is caught flat footed and the panthers start to pass around him eventually working the puck to the point. Zajac has moved low to take one of the defensemen's spots, which I love because it's obvious that Tallinder is gassed. He obviously realizes this and knows he needs to cover.

Then the wheels fall off the bus. Kovalchuk game agonizingly close to clearing the zone before the cross ice pass that leads immediately to the goal. It's actually an almost identical setup to the Carolina goal from 2 years ago where Parise just couldn't quite get it out of the zone.

So now the problem is pointing back to the d being too tired. Tallinder literally doesn't do jack shit. He coasts back towards the net behind the play, while Zajac is trying to separate himself from the player he's covering because Kulikov is rapidly getting himself into a prime shooting position. If Tallinder had just moved towards Kulikov, things might have been different, but they obviously weren't. So that's what I think led to that goal during those 7 seconds.

 

[nj_cup]

First, you're trying to disprove large sample size statistics by using a single instance. That's flawed in any line of thinking. Also, I can't find a good angle replay of the entire shift so review, but if I remember correctly it was an excellent shift by the Panthers, and they simply wore down all three Devils players. I obviously see that you're your looking at Tallinder, but the entire sequence isn't on him.

Also, I think it's obvious that the four of them were beaten as a unit. That's how 4 on 4 works though, it takes a tremendous individual effort to break up a sequence like that. It didn't come from anywhere.

this is just one example. a few weeks back i posted on here in a game where kovy got a -3 and i watched every single goal against and he wasnt responsible for anyone of them. you take enough "small" samples and they turn into something larger...how many of these examples that i've shown have you taken into account?

as for the play its 100% on talendar he turned the puck over...dont want to blame just him? ok fine but him and fayne got outworked outhustled on the boards the entire time after the turnover. you can not even hint at the possiblity of blaming zajac or kovy. i CAN ONLY IMAGINE if kovalchuk turned that puck over how badly people would jump all over him. but the fact remains becuase the defense (which has been a libality all year) caved once again and since kovy gets a ton of ice time you have a recpie for a bad +/- and corise and any other stat. go get your shine box

 

[MCDevils]

this is just one example. a few weeks back i posted on here in a game where kovy got a -3 and i watched every single goal against and he wasnt responsible for anyone of them. you take enough "small" samples and they turn into something larger...how many of these examples that i've shown have you taken into account?

as for the play its 100% on talendar he turned the puck over...dont want to blame just him? ok fine but him and fayne got outworked outhustled on the boards the entire time after the turnover. you can not even hint at the possiblity of blaming zajac or kovy. i CAN ONLY IMAGINE if kovalchuk turned that puck over how badly people would jump all over him. but the fact remains becuase the defense (which has been a libality all year) caved once again and since kovy gets a ton of ice time you have a recpie for a bad +/- and corise and any other stat. go get your shine box

I just want Kovalchuk to do something productive on the ice when he's in his own end. If you don't think that's important, fine. Point is, the defense was getting mauled for over a minute, and frankly, they didn't allow anything close to a scoring chance until the final goal. Did they even allow a shot on goal before that shift? They were worn down, fine. But you act like it's not Ilya's job to support his teammates. You also like to say that Kovy playing the most ice time is why his corsi is so bad because of the defense, well somehow the other 11 forwards on any given night don't seem to be as badly effected. At some point people will realize that Kovalchuk didn't have a horrible +/- in Atlanta all those years because he was simply on a bad team.

On a happier note, the game before this, and even earlier in this same game Kovalchuk was doing a substantially better job defensively. Similar to his play last season. I will give Lemaire credit for that, because MacLean certainly didn't ask Kovalchuk to do anything defensive.

Finally, what game was the -3 in. Since you don't like to actually do any factual analysis, I'll analyze the game instead. And I hope for your sake it wasn't that Islanders game, because I was at that one in person, and Kovalchuk was atrocious. I couldn't even believe how bad it was. So which of the three games was it?

 

[MCDevils]

I just want Kovalchuk to do something productive on the ice when he's in his own end. If you don't think that's important, fine. Point is, the defense was getting mauled for over a minute, and frankly, they didn't allow anything close to a scoring chance until the final goal. Did they even allow a shot on goal before that shift?

I mean before that final shot.

 

[nj_cup]

I just want Kovalchuk to do something productive on the ice when he's in his own end. If you don't think that's important, fine. Point is, the defense was getting mauled for over a minute, and frankly, they didn't allow anything close to a scoring chance until the final goal. Did they even allow a shot on goal before that shift? They were worn down, fine. But you act like it's not Ilya's job to support his teammates. You also like to say that Kovy playing the most ice time is why his corsi is so bad because of the defense, well somehow the other 11 forwards on any given night don't seem to be as badly effected. At some point people will realize that Kovalchuk didn't have a horrible +/- in Atlanta all those years because he was simply on a bad team.

On a happier note, the game before this, and even earlier in this same game Kovalchuk was doing a substantially better job defensively. Similar to his play last season. I will give Lemaire credit for that, because MacLean certainly didn't ask Kovalchuk to do anything defensive.

Finally, what game was the -3 in. Since you don't like to actually do any factual analysis, I'll analyze the game instead. And I hope for your sake it wasn't that Islanders game, because I was at that one in person, and Kovalchuk was atrocious. I couldn't even believe how bad it was. So which of the three games was it?

all talendar had to do was get the puck out of the zone and they could've changed. he didnt and they paid the price. plain and simple no way around that FACT. you have NO IDEA how glad i am you brought up the islander game because i checked and in fact that is the game i was talking about where he was a -3 and wasnt to blame for any of the goals he was on the ice for. now to just prove my point on how stupid your stats are....you claim he was HORRIBLE defensive for that game? yet he wasnt responsible for a single goal against (he in fact saved a goal on a breakaway) that turned into a goal eventually. so how could he have been so bad defensively yet not lead to a goal? yet had NOTHING to do with 3 goals scored against and yet still get a minus and your blame? simple because its all luck when it comes to those stats my friend

 

[TiLoBrown]

Thanks for the breakdown of the final goal MCD. I'm still in Atlanta so I didn't see the game. Not surprised Kovy was on the ice for the goal given up though....

 

[MCDevils]

all talendar had to do was get the puck out of the zone and they could've changed. he didnt and they paid the price. plain and simple no way around that FACT. you have NO IDEA how glad i am you brought up the islander game because i checked and in fact that is the game i was talking about where he was a -3 and wasnt to blame for any of the goals he was on the ice for. now to just prove my point on how stupid your stats are....you claim he was HORRIBLE defensive for that game? yet he wasnt responsible for a single goal against (he in fact saved a goal on a breakaway) that turned into a goal eventually. so how could he have been so bad defensively yet not lead to a goal? yet had NOTHING to do with 3 goals scored against and yet still get a minus and your blame? simple because its all luck when it comes to those stats my friend

You're right Kovalchuk was not at fault for two of the goals. The third goal the islanders scored though, if you watch the NHL.com replay, he's coasting back into the zone in what's essentially a 3v3 situation, he just cruises in, doesn't cover the third man who then shoots with the ensuing rebound going into the net. Kovalchuk just coasted between those two players for the entire duration of the play from center ice on with no effort to stop the islanders.

 

[MCDevils]

Thanks for the breakdown of the final goal MCD. I'm still in Atlanta so I didn't see the game. Not surprised Kovy was on the ice for the goal given up though....

Do you think we should go through all of Kovalchuk's minuses and see how many are directly his fault?

 

[MCDevils]

I just managed to find a stat that solely examines a players individual performance with little input from any other player on his team. Turnover differential.

Most Turnovers on the Team (Forwards) (takeaways in parenthesis):

Kovalchuk: 54 (25)
Elias: 32 (23)
Clarkson: 19 (10)
Zajac: 17 (28)
Zubrus: 15 (19)

Worst Turnover Differential (Forwards):
Kovalchuk: -29
Elias: -9
Clarkson: -9
Zajac: +11
Zubrus: +4

Of course, Kovalchuk does average 2 more minutes per game than Zajac, but considering that differential is pretty much entirely made up of PP time, Kovalchuk shouldn't really be in too many possession battles.

 

[MCDevils]

Instead of just telling me how you disagree with my, why don't explain what Kovalchuk is doing well that you like.

 

[kellmit]

Ya know how Kovy could fix his plus minus... by scoring some fucking goals!!!

 

[MCDevils]

Just to clarify, I think Kovalchuk has the ability to be an incredible player. You don't score 50 in the league or even 40 without being insanely good. I just wish that he would try more on defense, because at this point, he's hurting the team.

 

[skrillex26]

Apparently Lemaire wants to put Kovy on some Pk's to teach him to defend and be comfortable in that kind of situation. Which is good but jesus isn't he 27 years old? he should of been doing some D at some point, obviously after what we've seen he really hasn't.

 

[TiLoBrown]

He's had about a 30 seconds of PK time a couple of games ago, when were down a couple of goals.

 

[nj_cup]

You're right Kovalchuk was not at fault for two of the goals. The third goal the islanders scored though, if you watch the NHL.com replay, he's coasting back into the zone in what's essentially a 3v3 situation, he just cruises in, doesn't cover the third man who then shoots with the ensuing rebound going into the net. Kovalchuk just coasted between those two players for the entire duration of the play from center ice on with no effort to stop the islanders.

are you talking about tavaers goal? the one when zubrus was shown clearly 3 steps behind him you know the guy who hes suppose to cover

 

[MCDevils]

are you talking about tavaers goal? the one when zubrus was shown clearly 3 steps behind him you know the guy who hes suppose to cover

If you honestly can't look at that play and see that the puck went right to the person Kovalchuk was supposed to be covering before the cross pass that Zubrus screwed up on, then we're done with this conversation. He's just coasting in there covering no one.

But again, we all knows your strategy for defending Kovalchuk is to do anything possible to shift attention to another player.

If you think that coasting into the defensive zone with guys 7 feet on either side of Kovy is fine and him just deciding not to eliminate anyone from the play is the way to go, so be it.

 

[nj_cup]

i guess thats a yes you did mean jt's goal where zubrus was steps behind him. ok

 

[MCDevils]

Since your don't want to analyze your own example, here's the video:

John Tavares GOAL on Martin Brodeur - Game Video - NHL Video Highlights - Dec 23 '10 - NHL VideoCenter

Watch Ilya just crusing the ENTIRE WAY DOWN THE ICE DOING ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! At least Zubrus is trying to get into position and cover someone, but the subtleties of the game obviously escape you most of the time, since if a player is not scoring goals, he's useless in your eyes. You do realize it's Kovalchuks job to either cover the guy coming in wide, or prevent that pass that to the initial shooter from happening.