Has Felix "peaked"?

[AceKeptic]

Last year, we saw some of the greatest games he had ever pitched. Compared to what he's been doing lately, it seems like that's about as good as he'll ever get.

And for this, they gave him that outrageous contract extension.

Question is: Did he really "peak," and is it all just burnout from here onward?

 

[unlvmariners]

In 2012 he didn't pitch very well towards the end of the season either. I don't think it means he is burning out completely I think he burns out at the end of the season. If he doesn't finish out seasons strong it will prevent him from winning a CY Young. My hope is that he ends this season strong.

 

[Baseballnut77]

i dont feel like he has. if i am correct and i think i am i remember him going through a rough stretch last year before he spun his no hitter.

 

[cezero]

no, he hasn't peaked

he's fine

 

[fordman84]

Even if he has peaked and with that contract, there would be no shortage of buyers if SEA wanted out of his deal. One season doesn't mean anything, he's still a stud that every other team would want (except the cheap ones)

 

[dude82]

Are we really talking about this? He's going through a rough stretch. That's it. He hasn't "peaked" and we shouldn't dump his contract on some other team out of fear that he has. Has the perfect game really spoiled us to the point that we're talking about whether Felix has "peaked" and whether we should trade him now just in case he has because he's having a bad couple of weeks? I haven't enjoyed his last few starts either, but let's not overreact.

 

[hawkfan1073]

He hasn't "peaked"....what HAS happened I believe is that his motivation has been shot by lack of run support and alot of blown games like the one in Boston.
I also think the league has gotten used to hitting first pitch fastballs from him to avoid his nastier stuff. I think his approach to pitching needs to be re-thought out like when he changed from being a power fastball guy to a junk pitcher.

 

[Logicallylethal]

The perception that Felix is struggling is blown out of proportion. If we hold him to the standard of a super human who goes out and pitches 7 shut out innings or 8 innings giving up only 1 run every outing then we're going to be disappointed.

The guy is having a very very good year even if you factor in his recent bump in the road vs Texas. If he would have had just decent run support and not so bad luck with the bullpen blowing leads he could easily be 15-5 or 16-4 and we would all be looking at his season very differently right now.

 

[hawkfan1073]

If he would have had just decent run support and not so bad luck with the bullpen blowing leads he could easily be 15-5 or 16-4 and we would all be looking at his season very differently right now.

with this.

 

[seahawksfan234]

with this.

I don't. His W/L record has little impact on my evaluation of him.

That being said he is going through a rough stretch, I think it is just coincidental that he is going through it at the end of the season, just as he did last year.

Peaked? No.

Possibility that he has been getting drained by the end of the season? Maybe.

Last season his September ERA was 5.70 in 5 starts, possibly indicating he was drained. I think that his final 4 or 5 starts will clarify if he is drained or if it is just a coincidence that he is slumping around the same time as last year.

I'd like to know how his velocity was in August 2013 relative to the rest of the season, the same goes for September 2012 in relation to the rest of 2012. If anyone can pull that up I think it would go a long way in explaining if Felix is just going through a slump or if his arm is getting drained in the final stretch.

I know Blstoker is really good at finding that kind of information, if anyone could find it that would be greatly appreciated.

 

[cezero]

w/l is one of the most meaningless stats for a pitcher

it's a team stat, not an individual one

 

[Logicallylethal]

I don't. His W/L record has little impact on my evaluation of him.

w/l is one of the most meaningless stats for a pitcher

it's a team stat, not an individual one

Of course...win/losses means very little when it comes to evaluating a pitcher. What I meant in my post was that the "perception" would be different if Felix's win/loss was different.

People here have short term memory or selective memory. All they remember are the brutal losses and Felix's most recent struggles. They forget that Felix had a stretch where he pitched 7-8 innings nearly every start and only gave up 1-2 runs or less. And most of those starts he didn't even get a W for.

My point is...if Felix had gotten better run support/better luck with the bullpen...he would have came away with those Ws and the perception of Felix's season right now would be different.

 

[dude82]

Until this recent stretch, he was having the best season of his career and barring a (very unlikely) complete meltdown the rest of the way, he's still on pace to have career-best numbers in many categories this year. Even during this bad stretch, he's followed every awful start with a really good one or, at worst, a good one. His three awful starts in August came against teams that have owned Felix for his entire career. His career ERA against Texas is 4.18 in 39 starts. His career ERA against Toronto is 4.95 in 11 starts. Are you really that surprised that those are the teams that lit him up last month? I don't care how good a pitcher is... some teams just have your number.

That's why I think it's an overreaction to even entertain the idea that he's "peaked".

 

[SeattleCoug]

Or maybe he gets 4 and half months in like last year and realizes its another year of no run support and irrelevant September baseball and he just slightly loses his focus.

We are 1-7 in his last 8 starts. I mean I know he has got hit hard in a couple of those but that's ridiculous.

Him peaking is not what I'm worried about. Its that we have one the best pitchers in the game, in his prime and we are just wasting it. We have been wasting it for 5-6 years. Its sad and a shame.

 

[cezero]

Or maybe he gets 4 and half months in like last year and realizes its another year of no run support and irrelevant September baseball and he just slightly loses his focus.

We are 1-7 in his last 8 starts. I mean I know he has got hit hard in a couple of those but that's ridiculous.

Him peaking is not what I'm worried about. Its that we have one the best pitchers in the game, in his prime and we are just wasting it. We have been wasting it for 5-6 years. Its sad and a shame.

Yeah. I don't think it's intentional by Felix at all, though. That's just not in his nature.

He's human, though, and being surrounded by such a mess must get to him on some level.

 

[blstoker]

As Mariners fans, we have been spoiled when it comes to Felix Hernandez. I mean, in 2010, he threw 30 quality starts of 34, which is a feat that has only happened twice since 2000 (Randy Johnson in 2002). Also, since 2008, Felix has pitched more innings than any other pitcher in the majors (1349) and is less than 6 innings away from loggin his 6th straight 200 inning campaign.

In fact, he's thrown for more than 230 innings each of the last 4. He's actually not doing bad for a pitcher with that many innings the previous 4 years. Here are the 4 examples i found:

Name (seasons of 230 IP streak) stats for following year.
Roy Halladay (2008-2011) 2012- 4.49 ERA in 156.1 innings (2013 7.94 in 45.1 innings)
Mark Buerle (2002-2005) 2006- 4.99 ERA in 204 innings.
Randy Johnson (1999-2002) 2003- 4.26 ERA in 114 innings.
CC Sabathia (2007-2010) 2011- 3.00 ERA in 237.1 innings

There were a few more with 3 years out of 4 (Tim Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Johan Santana).

I am not sure that peaking is what M's fans really need to worry about, but more likely burning out. If anyone remembers what happened to Brandon Webb, He had pitched 225 or more innings for four strait years going into the 2009 season, and he pitched one game before going on the DL, and he'd never pitch in the majors again. He retired back in February, having pitched his final game at the ripe old age of 30. Only 5 times since 1999 has a pitcher thrown 230+ innings in 4 consecutive seasons, and only once has anyone had it for 5 strait, which Felix very well may reach again this year.

 

[dude82]

As Mariners fans, we have been spoiled when it comes to Felix Hernandez. I mean, in 2010, he threw 30 quality starts of 34, which is a feat that has only happened twice since 2000 (Randy Johnson in 2002). Also, since 2008, Felix has pitched more innings than any other pitcher in the majors (1349) and is less than 6 innings away from loggin his 6th straight 200 inning campaign.

In fact, he's thrown for more than 230 innings each of the last 4. He's actually not doing bad for a pitcher with that many innings the previous 4 years. Here are the 4 examples i found:

Name (seasons of 230 IP streak) stats for following year.
Roy Halladay (2008-2011) 2012- 4.49 ERA in 156.1 innings (2013 7.94 in 45.1 innings)
Mark Buerle (2002-2005) 2006- 4.99 ERA in 204 innings.
Randy Johnson (1999-2002) 2003- 4.26 ERA in 114 innings.
CC Sabathia (2007-2010) 2011- 3.00 ERA in 237.1 innings

There were a few more with 3 years out of 4 (Tim Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Johan Santana).

I am not sure that peaking is what M's fans really need to worry about, but more likely burning out. If anyone remembers what happened to Brandon Webb, He had pitched 225 or more innings for four strait years going into the 2009 season, and he pitched one game before going on the DL, and he'd never pitch in the majors again. He retired back in February, having pitched his final game at the ripe old age of 30. Only 5 times since 1999 has a pitcher thrown 230+ innings in 4 consecutive seasons, and only once has anyone had it for 5 strait, which Felix very well may reach again this year.

Burnout is most certainly a possibility, especially when you consider not just how many innings he's pitched or how many consecutive years he's pitched that many innings, but how many of those innings have been "stress" innings. You hear about "stress pitches" from time-to-time when a pitcher is constantly getting into trouble and how much higher a toll it takes than if he's cruising, but in this case, a stress inning for Felix means that he's trying to be perfect because he knows that a mistake or two could be the difference in the game. He's rarely had the luxury of being able to settle in without worrying about making a mistake and the longer the game goes with him having to be perfect just to keep the team in the game, the more stressful that has to be. He'd never admit to that, of course, but there has to be some truth to it.

I still think that, in this case, it was just a matter of running into teams that own him, but the burnout idea is worth keeping tabs on because the last thing we need is to lose Felix for any significant length of time.

 

[hawkfan1073]

I don't. His W/L record has little impact on my evaluation of him.

That being said he is going through a rough stretch, I think it is just coincidental that he is going through it at the end of the season, just as he did last year.

Peaked? No.

Possibility that he has been getting drained by the end of the season? Maybe.

Last season his September ERA was 5.70 in 5 starts, possibly indicating he was drained. I think that his final 4 or 5 starts will clarify if he is drained or if it is just a coincidence that he is slumping around the same time as last year.

I'd like to know how his velocity was in August 2013 relative to the rest of the season, the same goes for September 2012 in relation to the rest of 2012. If anyone can pull that up I think it would go a long way in explaining if Felix is just going through a slump or if his arm is getting drained in the final stretch.

I know Blstoker is really good at finding that kind of information, if anyone could find it that would be greatly appreciated.

So, you DON'T agree that if he got run support or his bullpen didn't blow leads he would have a better record?
So, if he got better run support or his bullpen could hold a lead what do you think would happen? Same record? Highly doubt it

 

[seahawksfan234]

As Mariners fans, we have been spoiled when it comes to Felix Hernandez. I mean, in 2010, he threw 30 quality starts of 34, which is a feat that has only happened twice since 2000 (Randy Johnson in 2002). Also, since 2008, Felix has pitched more innings than any other pitcher in the majors (1349) and is less than 6 innings away from loggin his 6th straight 200 inning campaign.

In fact, he's thrown for more than 230 innings each of the last 4. He's actually not doing bad for a pitcher with that many innings the previous 4 years. Here are the 4 examples i found:

Name (seasons of 230 IP streak) stats for following year.
Roy Halladay (2008-2011) 2012- 4.49 ERA in 156.1 innings (2013 7.94 in 45.1 innings)
Mark Buerle (2002-2005) 2006- 4.99 ERA in 204 innings.
Randy Johnson (1999-2002) 2003- 4.26 ERA in 114 innings.
CC Sabathia (2007-2010) 2011- 3.00 ERA in 237.1 innings

There were a few more with 3 years out of 4 (Tim Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Johan Santana).

I am not sure that peaking is what M's fans really need to worry about, but more likely burning out. If anyone remembers what happened to Brandon Webb, He had pitched 225 or more innings for four strait years going into the 2009 season, and he pitched one game before going on the DL, and he'd never pitch in the majors again. He retired back in February, having pitched his final game at the ripe old age of 30. Only 5 times since 1999 has a pitcher thrown 230+ innings in 4 consecutive seasons, and only once has anyone had it for 5 strait, which Felix very well may reach again this year.

Quality post as always Blstoker. I guess his next few starts will be a good indication if he is burning out.

 

[seahawksfan234]

So, you DON'T agree that if he got run support or his bullpen didn't blow leads he would have a better record?
So, if he got better run support or his bullpen could hold a lead what do you think would happen? Same record? Highly doubt it

Oh I completely agree if he got more run support he would have a better W/L record. Few months ago I actually pointed out in a thread how bad his run support has been this year.

My point is that W/L is a meaningless stat to me. I judge him by ERA, not W/L.