Happy New Year to my fellow M's diehards

[cezero]

Wishing nothing but the best to all of you in the coming year.

As far as the M's go, I think we're all in a place where we know we'll do better this year. We'll see how it all plays out.

Don't drink and drive! Happy New Year!!!!

 

[NWinAZ]

Ditto all that you said.

 

[RegentDenali]

Right back atcha. Here's to M's doing much better.

 

[seahawksfan234]

At least with the addition of Cano and Hart the team will be more interesting to watch this year at the plate.

IMO Cano alone improves this team by 5-10 wins.

 

[NWinAZ]

IMO Cano alone improves this team by 5-10 wins.

I will keep it positive as much as possible and stay with the happy new year wishes.

 

[Banned 10x]

 

[Thisnamewasntaken]

Same to you all!

 

[seahawksfan234]

I will keep it positive as much as possible and stay with the happy new year wishes.

Cano is a 7-8 WAR player. Plus the impact of having a guy like him in the lineup is difficult to measure. With the current roster I think the Mariners are looking at 85 wins or so next year. The Mariners lost 29 games last year by 1 run, I don't think a 5-10 win improvement simply from adding Cano is out of the question.

 

[NWinAZ]

He was a 6 WAR last year in a hitter friendly park. I just don't think he alone adds 5-10 wins. Of course neither one of us will ever know for sure since he wasn't the only one added. If M's as a group can get to 85 wins this year, a 14 game improvement, that would be a good accomplishment. It wouldn't make the playoffs, but a good accomplishment none the same. The question then becomes what can we add to get us to the 90+ win mark in 2015? I guess we need to get to 85 first.

 

[unlvmariners]

cheers to all!

 

[seahawksfan234]

He was a 6 WAR last year in a hitter friendly park. I just don't think he alone adds 5-10 wins. Of course neither one of us will ever know for sure since he wasn't the only one added. If M's as a group can get to 85 wins this year, a 14 game improvement, that would be a good accomplishment. It wouldn't make the playoffs, but a good accomplishment none the same. The question then becomes what can we add to get us to the 90+ win mark in 2015? I guess we need to get to 85 first.

According to baseball reference he was a 7.6 WAR player this year. 8.5 the year before. I'm not positive but I believe the Mariners had about 0 WAR from 2B in 2013. If you take the 7-8 WAR he adds to the team and take into consideration the impact having a bat like him in the lineup has, I think it is not out of the question to say he alone gives the team an extra 5-10 wins.

He did play in the hitter friendly park, but his home and away splits are pretty similar.

The Mariners performance from the back of the rotation last year was pitiful. Saunders had a 5.26 ERA, Maurer had a 6.30 ERA, Harang had a 5.76 ERA and Ramirez had a 4.93 ERA. Replace them with an entire year of Walker and Paxton and I expect you will see dramatic improvement there as well.

Call me an optimist but I think with the addition of Cano, Hart, an entire season of Walker + Paxton and hopefully another starting pitcher and I think the Mariners could reach 85 wins. If they make the right moves next off-season I think we could reach 90+ wins in 2015.

 

[kcden]

He was a 6 WAR last year in a hitter friendly park. I just don't think he alone adds 5-10 wins. Of course neither one of us will ever know for sure since he wasn't the only one added. If M's as a group can get to 85 wins this year, a 14 game improvement, that would be a good accomplishment. It wouldn't make the playoffs, but a good accomplishment none the same. The question then becomes what can we add to get us to the 90+ win mark in 2015? I guess we need to get to 85 first.

WAR is supposed to be corrected for Park Effects, so his home-field being Safeco vs. Yankee Stadium wouldn't make a difference, in theory.

 

[NWinAZ]

WAR is supposed to be corrected for Park Effects, so his home-field being Safeco vs. Yankee Stadium wouldn't make a difference, in theory.

I am admittedly old school when it comes to stats, but how to you get a grade that is non-park bias? I can understand if you adjust Yankee Stadium as a hitters park making him a 6.0 or whatever, but how would that equate if he is now a Mariner in Safeco? Would you have to adjust again for being a pitchers park? I guess my question is if he was a 6 at Yankees and he had an exact twin with the exact same numbers playing at Safeco would he still be a 6?

 

[NWinAZ]

According to baseball reference he was a 7.6 WAR player this year. 8.5 the year before. I'm not positive but I believe the Mariners had about 0 WAR from 2B in 2013. If you take the 7-8 WAR he adds to the team and take into consideration the impact having a bat like him in the lineup has, I think it is not out of the question to say he alone gives the team an extra 5-10 wins.

Odd because I used Fangraphs and it shows him as a 6.0 for 2013 and a 7.7 for 2012. Do they use different equations for WAR?

It does show Ackley as a .5 and Franklin as a .4 for 2013 so I see where you are coming from, but I am not a big believer in just taking numbers from one team and saying he would be the same for the other even with park adjustments and the such. Remember when Cameron was so psyched out hitting in Safeco as well as Beltre. That is more than just park adjustments there it is playing games with the head and I am not sure how you factor that in to an equation. Also lineup matters, travel distances over the course of the year, and so on.

 

[NWinAZ]

Another WAR question:

Ackley is a .5 WAR at 2B and CF per fangraphs. Does that mean he is just a .5 player overall or that he just happens to be the same at two positions? I always thought the WAR was position specific for a lack of a better term.

Also, is WAR based on a 162 game average or based on the number of games actually played that year by a specific player? Example: Saunders was a 1.2 WAR and played 132 games. Bourjos was a 1.1 WAR and played in only 55 games. So if Bourjos played in 132 games as Saunders did, he would be roughly a 2.8 WAR?

Again sorry but I am old school stat guy who does look at new school stats for fun.

 

[cezero]

NWinAZ, using fangraphs is good because they use a 5-year sampling of ballpark factors when they calculate WAR for a position player. in other words, they add park factors that are supposed to make up for the difference between, say, oWAR at yankees stadium vs safeco field.

so that addresses your question about WAR at different parks.

also, fangraphs adjusts wRAA and UZR (both of which are part of WAR) to account for the fact that different positions are harder to field than others. this is how they calculate that into dWAR, all per 162 defensive games.

Catcher: +12.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

looking at that, it makes it pretty easy for Ackley, since he played either 2B or CF for most of the past 162 games. the adjustment they make for both positions is identical.

fangraphs makes all of these little adjustments to try very hard to make WAR universal....as much as possible with so many different variables, anyway.

 

[NWinAZ]

Thanks. That is interesting. Didn't Ray Durham and Craig Biggio go from 2B to CF later in their careers? That kind of makes sense regarding the chart.

My little brain still spins on some of these equations and I was an honors student in Algebra....but that was a long, long time ago.

 

[cezero]

Thanks. That is interesting. Didn't Ray Durham and Craig Biggio go from 2B to CF later in their careers? That kind of makes sense regarding the chart.

My little brain still spins on some of these equations and I was an honors student in Algebra....but that was a long, long time ago.

i don't understand it all that well, either, but i like SABER better than the traditional stats.

 

[NWinAZ]

I do when I understand them.

Thanks again.