HALL OF FAME '17

[soxfan1468927]

Edgar up to 58.6% from 43% last year

I think he gets in his last year. Raines received just 55% in his 8th year compared to the 58.6% for Edgar. So I think he's trending better than Raines was at this point. It won't be next year as there are going to be 2 holdovers that are getting in (Hoffman and Vlad) and I think two first-ballot guys getting in (Chipper and Thome).

 

[rmilia1]

If Bags and Pudge got in then it's just a matter of time for the other road guys. Everyone with common sense knows those guys juiced. I just wish it wasn't such a popularity contest but it is what it is

 

[Guy Incognito]

Bonds should have been in, he had to bat against pitchers who were on PEDs and Clements had to pitch to hitters that were on PEDs.

Bonds was also a first-ballot Hall of Famer before he started juicing.

3-time MVP, only player in baseball history with 400 HR and 400 SB, led the league in homers once, slugging three times, OBP four times, and OPS five times. 5 30/30 seasons, one of which he went for 40/40. Likely would have gotten to 500/500 in HRs/steals without the juice, as he was at 445 and 460.

 

[soxfan1468927]

If Bags and Pudge got in then it's just a matter of time for the other road guys. Everyone with common sense knows those guys juiced. I just wish it wasn't such a popularity contest but it is what it is

2020 and 2021 classes aren't very strong. Over the next 3 years, I think there are just 5 definite HOFers added. And I mean "I know they're getting in, even though I may not agree with it." Compare that to the previous 3 years, when there were probably 8.

And then in 2022 you have one guy who I'm 99% sure will get in, and that's Ortiz.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

2020 and 2021 classes aren't very strong. Over the next 3 years, I think there are just 5 definite HOFers added. And I mean "I know they're getting in, even though I may not agree with it." Compare that to the previous 3 years, when there were probably 8.

And then in 2022 you have one guy who I'm 99% sure will get in, and that's Ortiz.

who are your 5??

I see Mo, Jeter, Halladay, Thome, Chipper to be definites...

I don't think Ortiz is a shoe in... Not sure if I have him even making it...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Johan Santana IMO is an interesting case... I am on the fence with him making it or not... I think I lean yes, but I can see why he wont... BUT I would be upset if Mussina(who I love) makes it and Santana doesn't...

 

[soxfan1468927]

who are your 5??

I see Mo, Jeter, Halladay, Thome, Chipper to be definites...

I don't think Ortiz is a shoe in... Not sure if I have him even making it...

Those are my 5. I didn't think Ortiz was a shoe-in, until this year. I think Edgar gets in his last ballot and Ortiz gets in pretty easily. Like I said, I'm 99% he gets there.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Johan Santana IMO is an interesting case... I am on the fence with him making it or not... I think I lean yes, but I can see why he wont... BUT I would be upset if Mussina(who I love) makes it and Santana doesn't...

Really? Santana has 1500 fewer innings. That's huge. And the ERA+ difference is 13. Which is pretty big for a career (essentailly the difference between Randy Johnson and Justin Verlander), but not large enough to make up the fact that Mussina has 16 seasons where he qualified for the ERA title and Santana has 7.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Potential HOFers
2018: Chipper, Thome, Rolen (fringe), Andruw (fringier)
2019: Mo, Doc
2020: Jeter, Abreu (fringier than Andruw)
2021: Nobody that's getting into the Hall comes on the ballot.

2021 will be an interesting year. Bonds and Clemens will be in their 9th year of eligibility, assuming that they haven't gotten in yet. Maybe the only guys who even belong in the conversation left on the ballot will be Rolen, Andruw, and Abreu, so it will be next to impossible to make the argument that there are other deserving candidates who need votes.

Plus, with the coming of Big Juicy to the ballot, they'll need to have buried the "tested positive for PEDs" thing to get Ortiz in.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Potential HOFers
2018: Chipper, Thome, Rolen (fringe), Andruw (fringier)
2019: Mo, Doc
2020: Jeter, Abreu (fringier than Andruw)
2021: Nobody that's getting into the Hall comes on the ballot.

2021 will be an interesting year. Bonds and Clemens will be in their 9th year of eligibility, assuming that they haven't gotten in yet. Maybe the only guys who even belong in the conversation left on the ballot will be Rolen, Andruw, and Abreu, so it will be next to impossible to make the argument that there are other deserving candidates who need votes.

Plus, with the coming of Big Juicy to the ballot, they'll need to have buried the "tested positive for PEDs" thing to get Ortiz in.

Helton, Pettitte, and Oswalt for 2019 as well. I wouldn't vote for them, but some big names.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Really? Santana has 1500 fewer innings. That's huge. And the ERA+ difference is 13. Which is pretty big for a career (essentailly the difference between Randy Johnson and Justin Verlander), but not large enough to make up the fact that Mussina has 16 seasons where he qualified for the ERA title and Santana has 7.

Simple reason... Santana was best pitcher of MLB caliber, Mussina was always at best top 5... It is not just quantity, QUALITY is just as important...

Santana is a 2 time CY, and a top 5 CY 5 times(top 3 4 times)
Mussina is a 0 time CY, and a top 5 CY 6 times(top 3 only once)

We can use more advanced stats too, I am just keeping it simple for a quick analysis... But you can easily say if you took both players top 10 seasons and ranked them 1-20. Santana would have dominated the top 5...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Helton, Pettitte, and Oswalt for 2019 as well. I wouldn't vote for them, but some big names.

Helton is an interesting case... But I am sure the Colorado affect will ruin him...

 

[Guy Incognito]

Helton, Pettitte, and Oswalt for 2019 as well. I wouldn't vote for them, but some big names.

They're big names, Helton is probably the closest to HOF worthy of those, less of a fringe guy than Andruw Jones or Bobby Abreu. Pettitte will probably get in 4-5 years down the line because of the postseason bias. Oswalt is a name, but he's basically a right-handed Andy Pettitte with 14 less postseason wins. No chance he gets in unless the voters lose their minds.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Those are my 5. I didn't think Ortiz was a shoe-in, until this year. I think Edgar gets in his last ballot and Ortiz gets in pretty easily. Like I said, I'm 99% he gets there.

I don't have either in... But Ortiz is knocking on the door... Edgar isn't IMO...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

They're big names, Helton is probably the closest to HOF worthy of those, less of a fringe guy than Andruw Jones or Bobby Abreu. Pettitte will probably get in 4-5 years down the line because of the postseason bias. Oswalt is a name, but he's basically a right-handed Andy Pettitte with 14 less postseason wins. No chance he gets in unless the voters lose their minds.

IDK I think andruw is closer than helton... Andruw is considered by many the best defensive CF of all time... He may make it just for being a great defenseman... He sure doesn't make it for his offense... Same for Adrian Beltre when he is eligible

 

[soxfan1468927]

Simple reason... Santana was best pitcher of MLB caliber, Mussina was always at best top 5... It is not just quantity, QUALITY is just as important...

Santana is a 2 time CY, and a top 5 CY 5 times(top 3 4 times)
Mussina is a 0 time CY, and a top 5 CY 6 times(top 3 only once)

We can use more advanced stats too, I am just keeping it simple for a quick analysis... But you can easily say if you took both players top 10 seasons and ranked them 1-20. Santana would have dominated the top 5...

No it's not JUST quantity, never said it was. Yes, Mussina probably has only 1 season that would be in the top 5, but he would have 12 out of the top 20 seasons, with some other valuable seasons left over. I'd put Mussina in over Santana, who I would be borderline on.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I don't have either in... But Ortiz is knocking on the door... Edgar isn't IMO...

I'm confident Edgar will get in. His trend is better than Raines was at this point.

 

[soxfan1468927]

IDK I think andruw is closer than helton... Andruw is considered by many the best defensive CF of all time... He may make it just for being a great defenseman... He sure doesn't make it for his offense... Same for Adrian Beltre when he is eligible

Beltre is going to end up with 3000 hits and 500 HRs. So he'll get in for both.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

No it's not JUST quantity, never said it was. Yes, Mussina probably has only 1 season that would be in the top 5, but he would have 12 out of the top 20 seasons, with some other valuable seasons left over. I'd put Mussina in over Santana, who I would be borderline on.

see, I dont like giving the HOF to the player who lasted long, when their 162 game averages are not really close to HOF worthy...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Beltre is going to end up with 3000 hits and 500 HRs. So he'll get in for both.

your probably right... But I consider those numbers more to be why he is a first balloter... I will never consider Beltre a good HOF offensive bat...